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CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 27

post #1301 of 16671
5/27/08 at 1:37pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by chappers View Post
so Renn Brown...what exactly is backwards about my predicts?

What? Do you see INDY nosediving and missing $250? See Sex and the City hitting $200? See TDK being the hit of the summer? Get Smart smashing records?

I think my predicts are pretty damn possible.

And as to TDK's ceiling being $275 I never meant to imply that would be a letdown. I've just heard some people saying TDK will win summer which is crazy.
I realize that was a dickish sentence, so my apologies (that's why I added the self-deprecating comment at the end - not enough).

I was mostly alluding to the big summer gross prediction thread that went for awhile. In that thread a pattern of (again, in my dumb little opinion) overselling Indy, underselling SATC (relegating it to a smaller gross b/c of the female audience), thinking Wall-E is anything other than a foregone conclusion, and finally underestimating the buzz on the Bat.

Everything your talking about is completely possible (and somewhat probable) but it is a perfect list of everything I think isn't going to happen like folks think. I don't know shit about shit, but that's what I'm thinking in my little corner over here - I'm having fun watching for it.
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post #1302 of 16671
5/27/08 at 2:19pm
Cool.

I think some were overselling INDY but at this point I don't see how it could miss $300 and I admit I'm not the core audience for SATC but I don't see how it could be much other than a one weekend wonder for female fans of the cable tv series, along with the husbands and boyfriends that get dragged along. But we'll see.

And yeah Wall-E could be huge but it is the sort of film I tend not to watch and thus tend to overlook.
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post #1303 of 16671
5/27/08 at 2:34pm
Wall-E is the real wild card this summer. I could see it doing anywhere from $200 to $450m.
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post #1304 of 16671
5/27/08 at 2:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by chappers View Post
And yeah Wall-E could be huge but it is the sort of film I tend not to watch and thus tend to overlook.
No, bad. ::rolls up newspaper and hits chappers with it:: bad Chewer.
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post #1305 of 16671
5/27/08 at 2:39pm
If anything at this point, if you're opening directly against a Pixar film, back the fuck down...

I could see Wall-E as low as $260 million or as high as $350 million. Either way, it's going to do killer business.
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post #1306 of 16671
5/27/08 at 2:39pm
Wall-E has a good shot at making E.T. like numbers.
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post #1307 of 16671
5/27/08 at 4:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post
Wall-E is the real wild card this summer. I could see it doing anywhere from $200 to $450m.
+1
Wall-E should be the biggest money maker of the year. Not much in terms of kids animated stuff coming out this summer that looks huge(Panda and Space Chimps-). Plus that Wall-E trailer is brilliant, everyone loves it when they see it, it puts a smile on everyones face reguardless if they like animation or not.
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post #1308 of 16671
5/27/08 at 4:45pm
My fiance is more excited about Wall-E than she is for Sex and the City, and she's been scouring HBO On Demand for reruns of the show to get ready for the film.
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post #1309 of 16671
5/28/08 at 4:06pm
Indy is not quite as huge as I thought it would be, but Lucas and Speilberg will still end up making a big pile of dough from it.
Wall E is the question mark this summer. It will do well, the question is how well.I have to agree I can see it doing anywhere from 250 Million to the 400 Million dollar range.
And The Dark Knight is really,really,being overestimated by the fanboys. I lover Batman Begins, and think TDK will do well, but the talk about a 100 Million plus opening weekend and 350 Plus final gross are just Fanboy Wet Dreams.
And if what I have been reading about The Happening is true, M Night will have another bomb on his hands. It might do better then LITW because it is better marketed..and apocalyptic Sci Fi does better box office then a Fairy Tale....but if the reports that after a scary opening the film falls apart and it actually becomes unintenionally funny then the film will collapse after the opening weekend.
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post #1310 of 16671
5/28/08 at 4:18pm
My friend saw Sex and the City last night at an advance screening in Raleigh, and she found it just okay, and this is from a woman who would not leave the house or answer her phone while that show was on. If this reaction holds for the rest of the fanbase, it'll open big and drop bigger.
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post #1311 of 16671
5/28/08 at 4:35pm
I predict Wall-E won't do as well as most people think.
It WILL do well, just not THAT well.
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post #1312 of 16671
5/28/08 at 6:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by HarleyQuinn22 View Post
My friend saw Sex and the City last night at an advance screening in Raleigh, and she found it just okay, and this is from a woman who would not leave the house or answer her phone while that show was on. If this reaction holds for the rest of the fanbase, it'll open big and drop bigger.
The question is how big will it open...enough to topple Indy IV this weekend?

Personally, I don't see that happening.
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post #1313 of 16671
5/28/08 at 6:59pm
I hope it does.
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post #1314 of 16671
5/28/08 at 7:04pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham View Post
I predict Wall-E won't do as well as most people think.
It WILL do well, just not THAT well.
It's the film to beat this summer, hell, this YEAR. It hits on all four quadrants like no other film coming out this summer. Pixar movies traditionally appeal across the board, but the buzz on this one reaches even further. It's going to gross at least as much as Finding Nemo, if not more.
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post #1315 of 16671
5/28/08 at 7:09pm
Yeah...it would be awesome if it did...and this is coming from someone who liked Indy IV!
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post #1316 of 16671
5/29/08 at 12:03am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg Clark View Post
It's the film to beat this summer, hell, this YEAR. It hits on all four quadrants like no other film coming out this summer. Pixar movies traditionally appeal across the board, but the buzz on this one reaches even further. It's going to gross at least as much as Finding Nemo, if not more.
Each successive Pixar film since Finding Nemo has grossed less than the last, and I have heard people in theaters bitch that they're tired of Wall-E marketing overload.

I think it's going to do well too, but $300m+ is not guaranteed.
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post #1317 of 16671
5/29/08 at 12:18am
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post
Each successive Pixar film since Finding Nemo has grossed less than the last, and I have heard people in theaters bitch that they're tired of Wall-E marketing overload.

I think it's going to do well too, but $300m+ is not guaranteed.
I think with economic hard times & election uncertainty, people will be seeking escapist, family entertainment. The timing couldn't be better. E.T. numbers for sure!
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post #1318 of 16671
5/29/08 at 12:21am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
I think with economic hard times & election uncertainty, people will be seeking escapist, family entertainment.
Like Prince Caspian?
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post #1319 of 16671
5/29/08 at 12:24am
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post
Like Prince Caspian?
Touche. I do think Wall-E has much more favorable buzz. We'll see.
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post #1320 of 16671
5/29/08 at 12:27am
Ratatouille made much more than Cars overseas. And those were both pretty dodgy premises that became hits just because they were Pixar movies. Wall-E is a premise that people are actively excited about, AND it's Pixar.

This is the biggest hit of the summer. It's as close to a sure thing as Hollywood allows.
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post #1321 of 16671
5/29/08 at 5:27pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Prankster View Post
Ratatouille made much more than Cars overseas. And those were both pretty dodgy premises that became hits just because they were Pixar movies. Wall-E is a premise that people are actively excited about, AND it's Pixar.

This is the biggest hit of the summer. It's as close to a sure thing as Hollywood allows.

I agree Wall-E comes as close to being a guaranteed hit as you can get.
I am not sure it will be the biggest hit of the Summer, but I would not be at all surprised if it did.

The Negative buzz on "The Happening" continues. Now there are reports it will NOT be screened for critics....and we all know what that means.
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post #1322 of 16671
5/29/08 at 5:32pm
Out of curiosity, has there ever been a film that didn't screen for critics, but turned out to be good?
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post #1323 of 16671
5/29/08 at 5:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jexxon
Has there ever been a film that didn't screen for critics, but turned out to be good?
Doomsday is almost good, depending what you're looking for, and it didn't screen for critics. I certainly enjoyed the heck out of it.
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post #1324 of 16671
5/29/08 at 7:54pm
Alright, weekend prediction time:

1) Indy IV - $51 mil
2) SATC - $38 mil
3) Iron Man - $12 mil
4) Strangers - $11 mil
5) Caspian - $9 mil
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post #1325 of 16671
5/29/08 at 8:04pm
Hmmm...

1. Indy IV - $54 million
2. Sex & the City - $40 million
3. Iron Man - $16 million
4. The Strangers - $10 million
5. Prince Caspian - $9 million
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post #1326 of 16671
5/29/08 at 8:24pm
I wanted to go higher for Iron Man, but I couldn't do it. Hope I'm wrong on it though. I think this weekend will be a relatively light one (gross wise) for the summer though.
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post #1327 of 16671
5/29/08 at 9:27pm
I think that SATC can hit $50 million this weekend. I really think it can, and until proven otherwise, I will stick with that prediction. No guts, no glory!
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post #1328 of 16671
5/29/08 at 9:50pm
Sex and the City - $54 million
Indy 4 - $47 million
Iron Man - $16 million
The Strangers - $12 million
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post #1329 of 16671
5/29/08 at 11:54pm
http://chud.com/articles/articles/14...008/Page1.html
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post #1330 of 16671
5/30/08 at 12:06am
I so hope you are right regarding Indy.
I'd love to see it fall really hard.
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post #1331 of 16671
5/30/08 at 2:45am
Not a chance in hell that Indy 4 drops that hard. It's been performing entirely like a family film thus far. Even if you give it a bigger drop than family flicks usually do post-Memorial Day -- i.e., 40-45% -- there's still no way it actually drops harder than Pirates of the Caribbean 3 did.
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post #1332 of 16671
5/30/08 at 2:52am
I'm following Memorial Day trends, which is usually a 60% drop. Last year Pirates dropped 61.5%, X3 66%. 2005 titles didn't fall as low, but they weren't as big openers. Also, WOM isn't great on Indy. A standard drop for a $100 weekend is usually more than 50%, though Iron Man was 49%. But Iron Man is better liked, and didn't open on a holiday weekend.

Note: Indy's 3-day was 100.
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post #1333 of 16671
5/30/08 at 2:58am
WOM isn't great on Indy, but it's not toxic either. It won't have much effect.

Indy's run, however, is that of a family film. Its opening day was decent and it built throughout the weekend. And like a family film, its weekday numbers are good, not great. It's played like this since it opened, and there's no reason to think it's suddenly going to stop. Go back through post-Memorial Day weekends and look at the drops for films like Madagascar (-40%), The Longest Yard (-45%), etc.

I don't think Indy 4 will hold up quite that well, but at worst it's going to be mid-range between those and your typical fanbase-heavy Pirates or X-Men 3 type of flick.
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post #1334 of 16671
5/30/08 at 3:08am
Madagascar didn't do 100, so the second weekend drop off wasn't as strong. Indy is an event film, and an action film that most people who didn't see it twice opening weekend are not going to go back to.

When did Indy become a family film? Because of the Saturday bump? I think that has more to do with opening Thursday, with the hardcore going Thursday, who would have made the Friday number the bigger number of the weekend.
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post #1335 of 16671
5/30/08 at 3:11am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre Dellamorte View Post
Madagascar didn't do 100, so the second weekend drop off wasn't as strong. Indy is an event film, and an action film that most people who didn't see it twice opening weekend are not going to go back to.

When did Indy become a family film? Because of the Saturday bump? I think that has more to do with opening Thursday, with the hardcore going Thursday, who would have made the Friday number the bigger number of the weekend.
It became a family film when its Friday was a 20% increase over opening day -- big event films (i.e. rush), in this day and age, don't do that. And then it increased again on Saturday, cementing its status.

Also, it made more on day five than day one.
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post #1336 of 16671
5/30/08 at 3:20am
You think it proves something that more people went to Indy on a holiday day than a Thursday?
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post #1337 of 16671
5/30/08 at 3:35am
Completely. You're selling this as a big flash-in-the-pan blockbuster. Those make all of their money quickly and then die off. By that token, the entire fanbase rushes to see them opening day. Pirates 3's opening day with previews was $56 million -- the next day it grossed $37 million. X-Men 3 dropped 29% day-to-day.

I'm sure at this point you'll argue that they opened on a Friday. Okay, so let's look at Star Wars: Episode III. Event film, same as you're selling Indy. Lots of cross-over between fanbases. Opened on a Thursday. And yet it dropped 33% on its second day, compared to Indy 4's 20% increase.

Hell, let's just drop the "fifth day made more than the first" argument. Find the last $200m+ blockbuster to have a Friday-to-Saturday increase opening weekend.
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post #1338 of 16671
5/30/08 at 5:58am
If "Sex" storms out and beats Indy on Friday (I think it will happen), the weekend matinees could very well be what determines who finishes first. Indy's strength is gonna end up being it's perception as family entertainment. Prince Caspian's folding basically gave it that window all to itself (until Kung Fu Panda).

It's should be a squeaker regardless, due to the contrasting demographics of this "race".
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post #1339 of 16671
5/30/08 at 6:48am
I really don't think Kung Fu Panda's gonna bring the thunder.
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post #1340 of 16671
5/30/08 at 6:52am
I know i'll have to see SATC this weekend, i'd imagine most other guys will be dragged there to make up for getting to see Indy last weekend.

EDIT: Kung Fu Panda got a really good reception from my audience when watching Indy. I think it'll come off fairly well, even if I didn't really think much of the trailer.
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post #1341 of 16671
5/30/08 at 6:53am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bees?! View Post
I know i'll have to see SATC this weekend, i'd imagine most other guys will be dragged there to make up for getting to see Indy last weekend.
Nope, Son of Rambow this weekend.

Hehehe.
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post #1342 of 16671
5/30/08 at 8:18am
Lucky bastard, i've got to wait to see that one.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7427288.stm

SATC beats Indy on PTA - £4,119 to £4,563 - Indy at 534 sites with 2.2mil. SATC 453 for 2.1mil.



Oops.
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post #1343 of 16671
5/30/08 at 11:04am
Technically they predicted their lungs.
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post #1344 of 16671
5/30/08 at 11:08am
KUNG-FU PANDA's actually released perfectly. It's going to make a ton of money before WALL*E opens and by the time that happens, it'll have pretty much completed most of the money it was going to make. Normally Pixar and Dreamworks try to one-up each other with release dates, but each has given the other enough room to do well. I expect PANDA's going to make quite a bit, and then WALL*E will make up the rest of the summer, as far as kids' films go.
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post #1345 of 16671
5/30/08 at 12:50pm
Forgot to post these yesterday. I know my SATC prediction is probably $10M too low but I almost feel like this movie has to prove it to me. I'm fine being very wrong on this one.

1. Indy - $44.8 million
2. Sex and the City - $40.9 million
3. Iron Man - $13.2 million
4. Prince Caspian - $12.7 million
5. The Strangers - $11.9 million

And Kung Fu Panda is a $45-50M opener for sure.
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post #1346 of 16671
5/30/08 at 4:23pm
No need to say it, but will anyway-nice write up.

Do you think word of mouth/bad reviews are going to hit Indy that hard? (Wish it really was at least LAST CRUSADE good--would've loved to see how the SATC showdown played)
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post #1347 of 16671
5/30/08 at 4:44pm
Again, for a film that opened that big during Memorial day weekend, I'm predicting based on other films of that period, and I see the Friday lower than Saturday thing as reflective of the odd Thursday opening. A larger drop after a Holiday weekend is perfectly normal. But I'm also perfectly happy to admit when I'm wrong.
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post #1348 of 16671
5/30/08 at 6:11pm
WOW, everyones coming in low for SATC

my wife and an army of all of her friends are going tonight(people that never go to movies)

every woman in America will be lined up this weekend


SATC-65 million
Indy-55 million
Iron Man-15 million
Caspian-8 million
What Happens in Vegas-6 million

Strangers-4 million
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post #1349 of 16671
5/30/08 at 9:42pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre Dellamorte View Post
Again, for a film that opened that big during Memorial day weekend, I'm predicting based on other films of that period, and I see the Friday lower than Saturday thing as reflective of the odd Thursday opening.
It's not just that Friday was lower than Saturday, though. Revenge of the Sith and The Matrix Reloaded did the same thing. The difference is, Indy's weekend days were each an increase over its opening, neither of which is true for the other two high profile Thursday openers.
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post #1350 of 16671
5/30/08 at 9:50pm
Hollywood rarely caters to older women. Hell, if you're an actress over 40, you can barely find a job unless you're last name is Streep. When was the last time a movie was released that had the majority of women wanting to see it right away? Titanic?

I think people will shocked when they see how good this movie does. Hollywood will very quickly realize that it's not good to ignore a huge fan base for years. I expect many films catered to older women within the next few summers that don't involve Cameron Diaz acting stupid.
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