CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 261

 

I sort of doubt it to be honest, or at least not without a budget cut. It's doubled its budget worldwide which would suggest it will make a modest profit overall. But this one got a solid $50m opening in a large part thanks to the hype, and I can't see a sequel being able to match that. It's also hard to imagine a sequel being any leggier than this one was, which makes it hard to justify dropping another £130m on another one. Oh well.

$130m and £130m are entirely different things.  Prometheus will get a sequel.

EDIT:

 

Word is AMC alone has already sold $19m worth of midnight tickets for The Dark Knight Rises.

Plus, doesn't everyone know "Prometheus" would have a two minute sequel?

 

"We've landed. Now, tell us, why do you want to ki-"

DEAD.

 

Not trying to be funny. But is that a lot?

For one chain?  Yeah, that's a fuck-ton.  Potter's midnight record is in jeopardy.

Say goodbye to that OW record, AVENGERS. Take these last few weeks to enjoy it.

Will be interesting to see the Spider-Man grosses. Still anticipating an under-performer here. Figure its 6-day will match the 3-day from ten years ago. Around $110-$120M.

I think Dark Knight Rises will do just under 200 M opening weekend (sans 3D).

 

As for Spider-Man, I don't know I think there's a real buzz growing for the under 25 crowd. It opens Wedensday but I can see it doing over 100 M for the 3 day (Fri-Sun).

Here's my prediciton for THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN: 125 for the 3 day. 250 total domestic. Enough to ensure the sequel, but changes will be made, and Marc Webb will be history. Garfield and Stone come through unscathed and return for the sequel, which will have alot more good will towards it.

 

Why would Marc Webb be history?  From every review I've read he's done a great job.  

That's crazy.

 

Sony will put a positive spin publicly on the returns, but behind closed doors this will be seen as a disappointment. SPIDER-MAN 3 will have done almost twice as much 5 years ago. Someone will have to take the fall, and critics are unanimously gushing about Garfileld and Stone. The writing is on the wall as far as Webb is concerned as they've basically started work on the sequel without his input.

I think you mean $125M for the 6 day?

 

Sony knew this wasn't going to make as much as the first three -- that was inevitable.  And I'm sorry, but this is still Spider-Man.  It's going to do better numbers than something like Thor.

I think we're in for another Superman Returns, i.e. $200M grossing "disappointment."

 

Just curious, but why not?  To the public it's just another Spider-Man movie right?  Sure the last one wasn't as well received but these films are review-proof since it made shitloads of money.  I guess Batman Forever is a similar scenario.  4 years after a disappointing sequel (Spidey is 5 years after part 3)...same character, different cast, different tone, made less money than the first one, but more than Batman Returns.  Why was Amazing Spider-Man set to under-perform from the get go? 

Spider-Man will open big. It'll bring in the under 25 crowd that Superman didn't. Its only problem will be that Dark Knight Rises opens two weeks later.

 

It's simply the nature of reboots.  Batman Begins and Casino Royale were phenomenally well-received, but they sold less tickets than their predecessors (well, except Batman & Robin, which killed the franchise in a way Spider-Man 3 didn't).

 

Batman Forever -- ignoring the fact that it was released 17 years ago -- wasn't starting over.  Begins, Royale, and the Amazing Spider-Man have all been sold as origin stories.

 

If an origin story is such a box office deal breaker, why would Sony include one?  It's not that hard to think up a different story (how many hundreds of stories are in the comics?).  Why would Sony deliberately fuck their own movie?  It's like they knew it was going to under-perform, but took no steps to rectify it in development?  I don't get it.

 

Bingo.

 

The exception to the reboot rule appears to be Star Trek (correct me if I'm wrong).

 

Why would this be seen as a disappointment?  The movie isn't even out yet and it's getting good reviews.  If he doesn't return it's going to be because he doesn't want to.

 

His quote:  

 

Well, it’s a long … People ask about the sequel and I’m like, “Well, you know, I don’t know if I want to do that, but I love the process.” I love Andrew and Emma. But it’s like asking someone who has just given birth, “Do you want to get pregnant again?”

 

It's sounded like Webb won't be returning for a long while now.  At least as far back as the leaking poor buzz from Sony, and the rumors of recuts.  There's also the chilling omen of Orcikurtzman being brought in for the sequil.

 

Here's the thing... there is just as much narrative to the "behind the scenes" stuff as there is to making the movie itself.

 

Webb's been asked point-blank if he is going to return and he's non-committal (Already has sequel options which would involve bigger pay-bumps - so that isn't the issue). Prior to that, Sony threw out all the other writers (and their stuff) and brought in Kurtzman and Orci on their own. Without his involvement. Nobody ever says, "Yeah _____ was fired!" publicly. Just something you don't do. But the writing is on the wall he's out. Not by his own choice.

 

The guy decides to make his second feature the big Spider-Man reboot following in Raimi's foot-steps. Knew what he was getting himself into. He didn't just decide, "You know what? I want out of the Spidey business for small shit I won't get half the dough for!" Especially if The Amazing Spider-Man surprises as you say with solid reviews and somehow doesn't under-perform. Makes no sense.

 

Ask Sony.  It makes no sense to me.  Pulling a Batman Forever always seemed like a more solid financial decision during development -- but hey, I'm just a guy on the internet.

 

Because then you get a chance to develop a new audience who maybe wasn't there for the first Spider-Man movies (or, more specifically, is not too old).

The intentions of these franchises is to essentially raise an entire generation, wean them on a brand name so that, even if the movies run out, they'll crave more, via DVD's, toys, merchandise, etc.. It's Sony's gamble that Spider-Man 3 alienated the core fanbase for the first three films - not a lot, but a enough for them to treat it as less of a rabid requirement and more of a passing fancy.

 

Of course, none of this would matter if they just took the time to hammer out a decent Spider-Man IV script. But studios have shareholders to please.

 

So I guess the latest strategy is "reboot every decade".  

 

Which still doesn't make sense, since anyone who hadn't been there for the Raimi films who saw (a theoretical) Spider-Man 4 would simply go rent/buy the earlier films, boosting video revenue for Sony's back catalog.  

 

Yeah fuck good ideas!

That is, if they didn't consider the first Spider-Man "dated" and "quaint" by now.

A large portion of the new Spider-Man's audience considers ten years a VERY long time.

It's not even the years per se...Raimi's films still look like they were made yesterday in terms of "look" and "style".  I highly doubt a kid is gonna search out the release year on the dvd box and scoff. That stuff tends to apply more to the actors being recognizable or not...everyone in the Raimi trilogy is still acting in modern films.  But if a kid was to stumble upon say,  The Goonies...

Anybody see this yet?

I wonder what he heard. Either way, this always seemed like a no-brainer to me.

Nikke Finke's ridiculously early numbers put Ted at $45m and Magic Mike at $30m+ for the weekend.

$30M for both sounds about right.

 

Brave will still win this weekend.

Is that an ironic tweet? He doesn't seem like the type that would be a box office cheerleader. Cool, more money for Warner Bros.!

 

Rises could do something to prove that TDK wasn't just the BO phenom because of Joker/Ledger Death (although, nobody argues that it didn't help).

 

Not to mention it's was getting expensive to pay Raimi and the cast.  

 

It's obviously a very limited sample, but I had to sneak into the midnight show of Ted because of how packed it was.  People were sitting in the aisles.

Dude, I am SOOOO ready for The Dark Knight Rises to be even better than The Dark Knight.  Bring it on.

I have to admit, ideologically I'm on the side of The Avengers, so I find myself subconsciously rooting against TDKR at the box office. Yes, I realize how absurd this is.
 

I'm rooting for the small, challenging indie films this summer that struggle to gain a profit.

 

Where there's a guilt trip, I'll be there.

I'm rooting for good films to do well. Indies, blockbusters, who gives a fuck as long as they're good.

Nah, I'm just fucking with y'all. I'm rooting for the Mets.

I'm rooting for the good films to FAIL.
 

 

She now has Ted doing $20m on Friday and $50m for the weekend.

Couldn't get off for the 20th, so seeing it that night. I haven't been to a huge blockbuster on an opening weekend in a long time (saw TDK at a private screening the night before it came out), so I'm unsure of how early I should show up to get a decent seat. I'm seeing it in IMAX. Any recommendations? Anyone do The Avengers the day of?
 

The rumblings that DKR appears to have stuck the landing in epic fashion are pretty encouraging. I'm thinking two 600 pictures in one summer. Whoever wins doesn't matter, although if DKR is anything near as good as the last one, it will probably get the Best Picture nom that Avengers simply can't even dream of.

Sooo Ted opened to $20 million, I didn't see that happening. I figured $30 million opening weekend, not $55-60. For the people who thought Magic Mike wouldn't find an audience, $19.4 million start on Friday is pretty damn good. Channing Tatum is finding his audience, and they're loving him. Madea got $10 which is exactly on par with his last Madea film which opened with around $25. People still like his stuff? Tis unfortunate.

 

 

I do all my comic book films the day of or midnight showings. For an IMAX film, I honestly get to the film about a hour and a half early (granted I live in NYC so crowds can be pretty hectic here), especially if you want to even get a good seat.

Here's a great vid of Soderbergh going into the economics of the business today and box office.  Pretty fascinating and informative.  The way he put the financing together for Magic Mike (under $10 million, by selling off territories at Cannes), and sold it to a studio and now the fact that it opened to nearly $40 million is a big wake up call to studios.

Friday night bookings of TDKR are already being sold out. This is the day after the Thursday midnight premiere. I would get on fandango, pick your day and reserve your seats.