CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 265

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Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie 

Didn't think about it until someone pointed it out. In this day and age of Twitter/Facebook/instant-everything, word of mouth kicks in immediately. If it was as good as CinemaScore suggested (A-) then we should have already seen results.

Well, that toxic reaction Spider-Man 3 had?  The sequel that everyone hated?  It managed a B+ CinemaScore.

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

Well, that toxic reaction Spider-Man 3 had?  The sequel that everyone hated?  It managed a B+ CinemaScore.

GET OUT!

Fuck me, Sir!

PEOPLE LOVE ALL THINGS SPIDER-MAN. DUH.

CinemaScore is the worst shit ever.

Think they should have moved Savages to August instead?

Nah, it's going to eat Spidey ALIVE.

SAVAGES now down to 55% on Rotten Tomatoes...how does it sink that fast?
 

Because it sucks?

felix, Sure, move Savages to the 3rd weekend of August, and it will receive a properly...Savage Beatdown, by our...August Heroes The Expendables!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Navidson 

SAVAGES now down to 55% on Rotten Tomatoes

Wow.  The initial 5 reviews were all positive.  Pretty weird.

Spidey is projecting out to around $140 million for the six-day.

More than good enough for a sequel, but I can see Sony rejigging things yet again to try and return the franchise to the box-office buster that they think it should be.

At the rate it's going 6-day will be closer to $120M ish.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ambler 

 

Wow.  The initial 5 reviews were all positive.  Pretty weird.

Is this seriously the first time you guys have ever looked at Rotten Tomatoes? This happens ALL THE TIME.

I usually don't look at early reviews on that site.

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Originally Posted by Andrew Merriweather 

Nah, it's going to eat Spidey ALIVE.

Not with MIRROR, MIRROR looming over everything.

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Originally Posted by Ambler 

 

Wow.  The initial 5 reviews were all positive.  Pretty weird.

The trailer made it look like a turd.

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Originally Posted by Gabe T 

PEOPLE LOVE ALL THINGS SPIDER-MAN. DUH.

Not on Twitter.  I like to check WOM opening weekend, and nothing does that better than a Twitter search.  Opening weekend for Avengers, Twitter was blowing its load about the movie.  Spider-man? 

"Sucks" 

"Terrible" 

"Awful" 

"Raimi better" 

And my favorite: "They got this playboy n**** to play peter parker wtf" 

There are some positive tweets, but the reaction is decidedly mixed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarleyQuinn22 

Not on Twitter.  I like to check WOM opening weekend, and nothing does that better than a Twitter search.  Opening weekend for Avengers, Twitter was blowing its load about the movie.  Spider-man? 

 

"Sucks" 

"Terrible" 

"Awful" 

"Raimi better" 

 

And my favorite: "They got this playboy n**** to play peter parker wtf" 

 

There are some positive tweets, but the reaction is decidedly mixed.

Numbers should go up some today. Curious by how much.

I'd say $60m or so is likely for the weekend.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarleyQuinn22 

And my favorite: "They got this playboy n**** to play peter parker wtf" 

lol

Just shy of $16 million for Thursday, a 32% drop.

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Originally Posted by Greg Clark 

Is this seriously the first time you guys have ever looked at Rotten Tomatoes? This happens ALL THE TIME.

I used to follow it pretty regularly and have never seen one drop like this, but I didn't see it when someone said it was at a 90%. I've seen 10-15% drops (rarely gains) and most of the times the ratings will hold pretty stable. It must have to do with how quickly they upload reviews nowadays or how a film is screened, if critics are getting exclusives, etc.  Even the critics consensus writer looks like he wrote his consensus when reviews were more favorable: "It's undeniably messy, but Savages finds Oliver Stone returning to dark, fearlessly lurid form."

So the negative reviews are pouring in at a more alarming rate than most films.

Trying to form a consensus off five online reviews when the usual mainstream wide release gets upwards of over ninety is beyond silly; the only thing sillier is acting shocked when the consensus turns out different from the first five reviews.

To put in some context, The Perfect Storm started life with around an 85% with a small handful of reviews; opening weekend it ended up somewhere in the low 30%. That was TWELVE YEARS AGO. This happens all the time.

I can barely remember that John C. Reilly was in that film, and you can remember a percentage drop that vast? I won't be able to compete with this as I never followed the Rotten Tomatoes "live" and I didn't ever actually look over at the actual number of reviews of SAVAGES. As a casual follower of the "percents" it just seemed like an outlier to me. There was probably a selection bias for the first batch of reviews.
 

Man, I forgot The Perfect Storm even existed.  And we were just discussing Wolfgang Petersen's filmography at Movie Night just recently!  Did the consensus for that movie really drop that much?  I recall it being mildly liked at the time.

From the first few handful of early reviews, yeah. It's a common trend. Back when I was really focused on RT, I remember What Lies Beneath taking a similar fall.

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Originally Posted by Navidson 

I can barely remember that John C. Reilly was in that film, and you can remember a percentage drop that vast? I won't be able to compete with this as I never followed the Rotten Tomatoes "live" and I didn't ever actually look over at the actual number of reviews of SAVAGES. As a casual follower of the "percents" it just seemed like an outlier to me. There was probably a selection bias for the first batch of reviews.
 

Why yes, yes I can. It's called paying attention and not labeling normal occurrences "strange."

Nah, Perfect Storm is dogshit. It might be a smidge classier now, given the cast going on to bigger and better things. Damn thing's got Clooney, Whalberg, Reilly, John Hawkes, William Fichtner, Diane Lane, Michael Ironside and more. But the problem is there's quite literally no story to tell, beyond they all go to sea and die. They end up with a bunch of invented maudlin junk to pad out the running time, but unless you're into some ten year old water CGI, nothing to see here.

So do we consider Prometheus as underperforming?

$289,771,852 worldwide so far.

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Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd 

Nah, Perfect Storm is dogshit. It might be a smidge classier now, given the cast going on to bigger and better things. Damn thing's got Clooney, Whalberg, Reilly, John Hawkes, William Fichtner, Diane Lane, Michael Ironside and more. But the problem is there's quite literally no story to tell, beyond they all go to sea and die. They end up with a bunch of invented maudlin junk to pad out the running time, but unless you're into some ten year old water CGI, nothing to see here.

Everyone was waiting on that big-ass wave from the ads.  Nothing else mattered.

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Originally Posted by felix 

So do we consider Prometheus as underperforming?

 

$289,771,852 worldwide so far.

It's still yet to be released in Germany and Japan.  I think it's fair to think that would get it to $300 million.   Seems like a moderate hit for Fox, no?   Especially considering the last film in the franchise was AVP: R and only hit $128 million worldwide.

How dare you suggest AVPR was the last film in the franchise.  I would sooner say Predators was the last film in the alien franchise before resorting to that.

 It really depends on which 5 reviews are pulled first. If a film gets 5 big name reviewers right out the gate submitted to RT and one of them is Armond White and it ends up with 80% positive rating based on those 5 reviews, then by the time everything else comes in, it will most likely be at 90% when all is said in done.

I'm guess I'm looking at it as these reviews being randomly selected from the grand total that will end up on Rotten Tomatoes. If it were a true random selection, then 5 reviews from all of the film's total reviews would get you in a ballpark with a smaller standard deviation than 40%.

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Originally Posted by Kevin Macken 

 

It's still yet to be released in Germany and Japan.  I think it's fair to think that would get it to $300 million.   Seems like a moderate hit for Fox, no?   Especially considering the last film in the franchise was AVP: R and only hit $128 million worldwide.

No. It's not a flop, but I don't think it could be considered a hit.

Prometheus is the type of film that sells DVD's, also if there ever is a good director's cut it is a film that can replay endlessly on cable. It is a money maker for Fox.

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Originally Posted by MikeI 

 

No. It's not a flop, but I don't think it could be considered a hit.

Maybe the word "win" would have been more appropriate, but my basic point was that it will make the studio a profit, and put the Alien franchise on a slightly better trajectory.

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Originally Posted by felix 

So do we consider Prometheus as underperforming?

 

$289,771,852 worldwide so far.

It still has major markets left.  $350m worldwide is assured, with $400m a definite possibility.

2012 sure isn't Taylor Kitsch's year.

Deadline is reporting $15 Million for SAVAGES this weekend.

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Originally Posted by felix 

2012 sure isn't Taylor Kitsch's year.

Peter Berg must be devasated...wasn't he the one championing him?

Um, Savages could have done much, much worse.  It was tracking at about 7.

Wait, so does this mean that we're NOT getting a Gambit movie???

Savages never seemed like a movie that was going to make much.

I'm actually impressed with the $15 million.  Hahahah

And holy shit is Ted doing great. Looking at $150M plus. Took my best friend to see it last night and it was as packed as it was when I saw it opening night.

I'd be more pumped to see Ted if the bear had a different voice.
 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg Clark 

Is this seriously the first time you guys have ever looked at Rotten Tomatoes? This happens ALL THE TIME.

You're right, only 5 reviews is nowhere near any indication of where a film's grade will end on RT.  You really need about 70-100 reviews in to really gauge where a film's score might end. By that time enough reviews are usually in where there will no longer be drastic jumps or drops, maybe a few points up or down by that time, but that's it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie 

At the rate it's going 6-day will be closer to $120M ish.

Nah, TASM will end it's 6 day opening between 140-150 million for sure.

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Originally Posted by JacknifeJohnny 

CinemaScore is the worst shit ever.

I don't know my man, Cinemascore is based on regular movie attendees, people like you and me, so i don't know if you can truly say that about Cinemascore.

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Originally Posted by orlando 

I don't know my man, Cinemascore is based on regular movie attendees, people like you and me, so i don't know if you can truly say that about Cinemascore.

Swing and a miss!  We're not regular movie attendees.