CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 266

Yes, but sooner or later the contract SONY has with Marvel will expire.All film licences has expiration dates built in. And Marvel will not sign any extensions to it's most popular character now that it has it's own studio.

World Wide Spiderman hit 341M.   Not a bad week.  

Not bad at all.  All the major movies look to be doing pretty solid-to-great business right now.

 

Is there any major market that ASM hasn't opened in yet?

It's hard to gauge just at what level of success this opening is for Spider-Man. It's a big number. But not as big as the previous Spider-Man movies. Granted, this is a reboot and the studio is comparing it to being a much bigger opening than Batman Begins but is that a fair comparison? Batman Begins came 8 years after Batman & Robin which scored the LOWEST amount for the Batman franchise. Spider-Man 3 might have been critically derided but it became the highest grossing of the series worldwide. The Batman franchise was in much worse shape when Begins was released than the Spider-Man franchise.

 

Then again, what is the budget on this thing? It must be much lower than Spider-Man 3. Is there an official number? Obviously opening on a Tuesday it's hard to compare with the other Spider-Man openings with the only similar pattern being Transformers. That did 70 M over the 3 day and 155 M over the 6 day. If this sees similar legs it will make over 300 M but with The Dark Knight Rises opening in two weeks, I can't see that happening.

 

Regardless, the sequel is all but guaranteed with the same cast. It'll be interesting to see if Marc Webb returns.

Not sure?   

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=spiderman4.htm

 

 

I don't see China or Russia?

Oh man.  China LOVES 3D!

That explains their squinty little eyes....

Katy Perry at $7 million.

 

*SOB* America is so mean.

 

Meanwhile, Magic Mike has now septupled its budget. How long before the think pieces tying this in with Fifty Shades of Grey: "Are Horny Straight Women the Future of Entertainment?"

If there's an expiration date on the Marvel/Sony contract, it's a clause that's been conspicuously absent from all discussion of the movie rights.  Everything I've ever seen from media or media pundit alike has said the clause is "in perpetuity" and as long as they keep crankin' em out, Spider-Man could effectively "live" at Sony until the sun burns out.

 

So if it exists, it stands to reason it's so far in the future that people consider it a non-issue...as in probably not even in our lifetimes.

 

Same story with the X-Men at Fox.

 

Bear in mind when these movie rights were sold, Marvel was in bankruptcy, and had no plans whatsoever to develop its' own movie studio.

While i don't see TDKR doing AVENGERS like numbers, BATMAN BEGINS numbers is cutting it a little too low my friend, don't you think? TDKR will be a huge hit no doubt, personally i see it finishing around 400-450 mil domestically and 900 mil to 1B globally.

You're right, that's a damn fine week. I can see TASM finishing it's box office run around 300 mil domestically 800-850 mil globally, coming off the hate and disdain this film recieved before people even saw it, i would consider that a true success.

Wonder how much repeat business TASM is gonna have, though. That's the key. Basically your repeat business there is gonna be kids little enough not to have seen the origin story ten years ago. Who else is there? Fanboys who say "Let's go again to watch all those great Lizard scenes again"? Whereas Avengers and TDK enjoyed repeat business pretty much across the board.

I agree, since when does 450m domestically ever qualify as a failure, not in my book. I think we look at films like TDK, Avatar & Avengers, get spoiled and assume that's supposed to happen all the time and it just does'nt. To me those 3 films just happen to have a special connection to audiences, they we're in the right places at the right time and struck a perfect cord with people. This kind of thing happens every once in a while, Jaws, Star Wars, ET & Titanic, but not very much. All i know is you really can't predict it, there's those special films that audiences just gravitate to and embrace like no other, that's how i see it.

 

Box Office Mojo puts it at 230 million.

 

Just proves that they're the same as fanboys. They rush out opening weekend and then the film drops like a rock afterwards. Except their films are cheaper so they make back their budgets faster.

If estimates hold, CHUD Average will take the lead in the June Prediction race tomorrow. Feel the power of group-mind.

 

That said, it likely won't maintain the lead. Film Nerd Jamie appears to have better predictions for everything left with a chance of moving the needle and seems to be primed to take the June crown. Dark Shape, Mr. Banana Grabber and S.D. Bob Plissken are currently within $100K of each other (per movie) which is kind of crazy (currently 3rd-5th). 

 

Skyrocketing Ted and Magic Mike are the only chances for me climbing out of the cellar.

You're quoting from some old conversations. I think we're past the point where people are telling themselves that TDKR is only going to make BB numbers. No one in their right mind believes that. Like Sebastian intimated a few pages ago, I wouldn't bet against TDKR taking it all home this year. No matter where the film ends up, it's going to knock out Batman Begins total domestic in less than a week.

If someone offered me a straight up hundred dollar bet, right now, that TDKR would not  make more than Avengers domestically, I would walk away from it. Sooner bet on a coin flip.

The suits at Sony must be breathing a lot easier this week. Considering the potential problems this reboot was facing, things could've gone a whole lot worse.

 

TASM will do $550-600 million easy.

 

But it did cost $230 plus marketing.  

 

 

Edit:  If that crappy MIB 3 has done 600M, then I see no reason it can't do at least 700.  

The Dark Knight Rises is #1 on Fandago's top 5 sellers list. Right now, TDKR is selling more tickets than Amazing Spider-Man on the site.

June Results to date (click to embiggen)

 

Not the proximity for 1st and 2nd and then for 3rd-5th not far behind. I'm also calling our first lock for an individual film. Congrats to Film Nerd Jamie for most accurately predicting Seeking a Friend for the End of the World. He only over-predicted it by about 500% which is a lot closer than the rest of us did.

 

July results to date (click to embiggen)

 

Just a reminder that Moonrise Kingdom won't count towards the total. Also, Mr. Bananagrabber is shockingly already out of the money on Moonrise Kingdom.

Good on Moonrise Kingdom!

 

I'm going to get pantsed by Dark Knight.

After closer examination, I am prepared to announce the winners for several individual films in the June chart.

 

Snow White - Gross to Date: 150......... Closest guess: Film Nerd Jamie 160 (it would need to make 17.5 million more for Gabe and I to share victory)

Madagascar 3 - Gross to Date: 196.8...... Closest guess: S.D. Bob Plissken 190 (it would need to make 23.2 million more for Mr. Bananagrabber to take it)

Rock of Ages - Gross to Date: 37..... Closest Guess: Mr.Bananagrabber 30 (it would need 5.5 million for Arjen Rudd to take it)

That's My Boy - Gross to Date: 36.2.... Closest Guess: Mr. Bananagrabber 60 (and it's not even close)

Abraham Lincoln - Gross to Date: 34.3.... Closest Guess: Film Nerd Jamie 40 (it needs a couple hundred thousand for Jamie, but ten million for any one else)

 

Prometheus needs 2 million for CHUD Average to take it. Still very doable.

People Like Us needs 6 million for Dark Shape to take it... probably not but too soon to tell.

Brave, Ted and Madea have too much juice in them

Spiderman crossed the 400M world wide gross today.

 

7 million on Monday and 8 on Tuesday.   I'd think it was going to be less on Tuesday.  

 

I warned you, buddy!

 

 

My predictions for this and Magic Mike are saving me more than anything right now.  I'm shaking my head at some of my other predictions though, particularly on some of the bigger films.  That said, I'm proud as punch that I was utterly wrong about That's My Boy.  Thank you, for once, America!

 

 

 

I still say August is going to be the most fun for us.

Can The Expendables 2 do $100 Million Domestic? Me hopes it can.

$130 is the floor. The floor.

The first one pulled around $104 million domestically and almost $275 million worldwide, so I don't see why not...especially considering the reaction the trailers and spots have been getting from what I've seen.  I think it will probably do well enough to warrant a third one.

felix, The Expendables 2: Back For War, has...ZERO competition til...Resident Evil: Retribution...4 weeks after EX 2 is released!  A week later even Stallone might...Dredd to be...Judged, by...Joe, Top...Gun in Mega City One!

Plus you have to factor that lots of folks who didn't care for the first one are gonna somehow magically find themselves in a theater projecting part 2.

I don't expect it to be a huge hit, but I'll be surprised if The Expendables 2 doesn't top the grosses of the first one.  Maybe it's just the area I live in, but I haven't seen a more positive reaction for a trailer this year, aside from The Avengers.  Will it make hundreds of millions of dollars in the US?  Extremely doubtful.  It has its niche though and that coupled with the expanded roster and the fact that the trailer itself is better than the first one gives it an edge with the audience, especially in a month cluttered mostly with films that studios don't expect to do HUGE business.  August is the clean-up crew of the summer; sweeping in and emptying everyone's wallets of the few bucks they have left before the usual fall slump.  I'll be surprised if Expendables 2 isn't on the higher end of that months earners.

 

What action fans and cinephiles around here think of Expendables is moot.  Most of us either hate it or enjoy it in spite of its flaws.  The general feeling I get out of the "average" filmgoer that it is geared towards is that the first was a winner and they saw it more than once.  It also pulled in the dough on rentals and purchases. 

 

Underwhelming or not, it was Stallone's biggest earner since Rambo III (1988).

S.D. Bob Plissken, There shouldn't be much of fall slump this year!

Dredd 9/21

Taken 2 10/5

James Bond 007 Skyfall 11/9

 

Also, if you include Resident Evil Retribution, there should be plenty for action fans to see.

Taken 2 and obviously Skyfall will make big money. Dredd won't come close (probably Conan the Barbarian numbers) and Resident Evil makes what they always make (50M-60M) just like its buddy Underworld.

Actually, since 1993's Cliffhanger which in turn was his biigest earner since Rocky IV (1985).
Edited by User_32 - 7/11/12 at 5:24pm

I was looking at the adjusted numbers.

 

I am proud to have been so wrong. I thought Rock of Ages could be this year's Mamma Mia, that That's My Boy, could be another Grown Ups, that Ted could be a hangover-lite, that People Like Us could be Help-lite, and that Seeking a Friend could be the quirky indie comedy that actually makes some money.

 

I was wrong on everything except Ted, which I will probably end up underestimating.

Speaking of August... this is what boxofficemojo lists as August wide releases.

 

 

God, what an uninspired batch to prognosticate...

 

All the more reason why it will be fun.  That month could honestly go any way.  I'll hold off on my own predictions for the moment though.

I want TOTAL RECALL to fail. FAIL HARD.

 

Just look at Farrell's face here.

Spidey's soft as shit going into the second week.
 

If your shit's that soft, put more fiber in your diet

 

Soft?  It'll do it's usual 50-60% drop.  Anything above that is really, really good.  It's had good staying power this week.  I think it's going to hang around a while even with Dark Knight around.

 

It's already at 400M.   I think it could do 700-800 WW.

Not a chance. It's going to get splatted by the one-two punch of ICE AGE and TDKR. It's good okay day-to-days if this were a $100million movie, but Sony poured $230million into this thing and it's not the monster they'll have wanted it to be. It's the runt of the superhero litter now, when the franchise used to be the king.
 

I agree with cccc.

 

Where did you get the $400 million number by the way? Box Office Mojo still has it at $354,810,348.

 

It's old.  

 

http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2012-07-03-the-amazing-spider-man-grabs-75-million-from-midnight-shows

 

And boxofficeguru tweet:

 

 

‪#AmazingSpiderMan‬ smashing $400M worldwide today. Thru TUE, $153.2M domestic & $231.8M intl.

 

 

  It's doing exactly as they hoped.  

Thanks, Sony Publicity Division!

 

I think they hoped to have a juggernaut, or they wouldn't have upped the budget to $230million. It's done good business, but there's no question of it putting up a fight against TDKR, something they had to have been hoping for in the back of their collective minds.

So what are we looking at, $250 to $275 million Domestic for ASM? That's quite a dip from Spider-Man 3. The higher 3D ticket prices make that even more underwhelming.

 

It's a reboot.  They always do less then the originals.  Spider 2 will fare better (If good).