CHUD.com Community › Forums › THE MAIN SEWER › CHUD.COM Main › CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 268

post #13351 of 16671
7/12/12 at 1:17pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by neoolong View Post

Quote:

 

Yes, but will The Dark Knight Rises give Premium Rush a bump due to JGL?

 

Doubtful. That flick will live or die by its own merit. Ditto Looper (which I think will do well-ish).

Reply
post #13352 of 16671
7/12/12 at 1:17pm

Seems like it would be better if they pushed Looper up and dropped Premium Rush back, though they could always push Willis in the marketing if they feel the need to drop back on the JGL-ness of it all.  It's not like he's got GI Joe Retaliation this year anymore.

 

Or they just re-release Brick in theaters.

Reply
post #13353 of 16671
7/12/12 at 2:30pm
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $42
Total Recall - $85.
Bourne Legacy - $170.
The Campaign - $55.
Hope Springs - $76.
Expendables 2 - $101.
The Odd Life of Timothy Green -$30.
ParaNorman - $73.
Sparkle - $60.
The Apparition - $40.
Hit & Run - $15
Premium Rush - $38
Lawless - $69.
The Possession - $40.
Reply
post #13354 of 16671
7/12/12 at 2:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by S.D. Bob Plissken View Post

 

Because, for better or worse, people seem more excited about it than Bourne.  One is a spin-off to a popular franchise without its star.  The other is a bigger budgeted sequel to a film that was mostly well-received by general audiences.  Both will likely be the highest-grossing new films of the month.  If not, I'll be surprised.  Each should have a decent run throughout August if people take to them because there isn't much competition overall.

 

Who's more excited about it, though?  Nerds on the internet who fetishize 80's action heroes?

 

Bourne is a proven commodity with a star who has been a supporting player in two hit movies in the last 8 months, and was written and directed by Tony Gilroy.  Expendables 2 is a sequel to a gimmicky idea that barely made 100 million the first time, and was directed by Simon fucking West.  Both should open okay, but considering the pedigree, odds seem great that the Bourne movie will be much better, and, as such, probably have more legs.

 

That's my take on it, anyway.  I of course reserve the right to be way off base.  The only x factor I see (barring the Bourne movie somehow being worse) is that people are really eager to revisit Arnold as a movie star again.

Reply
post #13355 of 16671
7/12/12 at 5:11pm

Film Nerd Jamie just took the lead in the June race. I think he'll end up taking it... and it's all thanks to Ted.

 

In other news, in nine days of release Amazing Spider-Man has managed to 77% of what the Avengers did in three. That's for cccc. Let's not go nut on how well this movie is doing.

Reply
post #13356 of 16671
7/12/12 at 6:38pm

based on my horrible performance in the last month and the fact that I dont give two shits about any of the movies on the next list, I will lick my wounds and sit this one out. Someone else will have to take last place this time.

Reply
post #13357 of 16671
7/12/12 at 7:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post

 

Doubtful. That flick will live or die by its own merit. Ditto Looper (which I think will do well-ish).

 

 

Are we talking Source Code numbers here?

Reply
post #13358 of 16671
7/12/12 at 7:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3nnui View Post

based on my horrible performance in the last month and the fact that I dont give two shits about any of the movies on the next list, I will lick my wounds and sit this one out. Someone else will have to take last place this time.

 

3nnui, I have the honor of being last for the moment... though, admittedly, I probably will sneak past you by a smidge.

Reply
post #13359 of 16671
7/13/12 at 8:13am

If you guys don't mind, I would love to get in on this.

 

 

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days – 60 mil

 

Total Recall - 80 mil

 

The Bourne Legacy – 120 mil

 

The Campaign – 30 mil

 

Hope Springs - 50 mil

 

The Expendables 2 – $160 mil

 

The Odd Life of Timothy Green – $10 mil

 

ParaNorman – $65 mil

 

Sparkle – $65 mil

 

The Apparition – $250 million.

 

Hit & Run – $7 million.

 

Premium Rush – $25 million.

 

Lawless – $40 million.

 

The Possession - $25 million.

Reply
post #13360 of 16671
7/13/12 at 9:22am

250 million for THE APPARITITON?! I'm a bigtime horror guy, but are you sure you didn't add a zero on to the end of that total?

Reply
post #13361 of 16671
7/13/12 at 9:35am

Low is the way to go.  I don't see any breakouts like Ted coming, and lots of stuff like Seeking a Friend, and People Like Us.

Reply
post #13362 of 16671
7/13/12 at 11:54am
Quote:
Originally Posted by User_32 View Post

It's hard to gauge just at what level of success this opening is for Spider-Man. It's a big number. But not as big as the previous Spider-Man movies. Granted, this is a reboot and the studio is comparing it to being a much bigger opening than Batman Begins but is that a fair comparison? Batman Begins came 8 years after Batman & Robin which scored the LOWEST amount for the Batman franchise. Spider-Man 3 might have been critically derided but it became the highest grossing of the series worldwide. The Batman franchise was in much worse shape when Begins was released than the Spider-Man franchise.

 

Then again, what is the budget on this thing? It must be much lower than Spider-Man 3. Is there an official number? Obviously opening on a Tuesday it's hard to compare with the other Spider-Man openings with the only similar pattern being Transformers. That did 70 M over the 3 day and 155 M over the 6 day. If this sees similar legs it will make over 300 M but with The Dark Knight Rises opening in two weeks, I can't see that happening.

 

Regardless, the sequel is all but guaranteed with the same cast. It'll be interesting to see if Marc Webb returns.

TASM can make it to 300 mil domestic, but it will cut it close in my opinion.  I'm thinking 285-310, in that range.

Reply
post #13363 of 16671
7/13/12 at 12:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

Film Nerd Jamie just took the lead in the June race. I think he'll end up taking it... and it's all thanks to Ted.

 

In other news, in nine days of release Amazing Spider-Man has managed to 77% of what the Avengers did in three. That's for cccc. Let's not go nut on how well this movie is doing.

Well the scale is definantly lowered for TASM in comparrison to the AVENGERS. Are TASM numbers anstonishing, no but they're pretty good solid numbers, especially for a film many people had doubts about going in. While domestic numbers have been solid and good, overseas numbers have been pretty spectacular so far.

Reply
post #13364 of 16671
7/13/12 at 12:39pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by orlando View Post

TASM can make it to 300 mil domestic, but it will cut it close in my opinion.  I'm thinking 285-310, in that range.

 

No.  270 is about the best TASM can hope for at this point.

Reply
post #13365 of 16671
7/13/12 at 1:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

Film Nerd Jamie just took the lead in the June race. I think he'll end up taking it... and it's all thanks to Ted.

 

In other news, in nine days of release Amazing Spider-Man has managed to 77% of what the Avengers did in three. That's for cccc. Let's not go nut on how well this movie is doing.

 

So what?  And Avatar made 2.7B.   It's all relative.  ASM will still make close to 800M world wide.  However you cut it that's success.  It's hard to reboot a franchise.  Batman Begins only made 372M WW.   

Reply
post #13366 of 16671
7/13/12 at 1:28pm

Thank you for reminding me the ignore function exists.

 

edit-  

 3626802_o.gif

Reply
post #13367 of 16671
7/13/12 at 1:39pm
But Bailey! ASM has clearly proven itself a massive success, whether you ignore it or not. I for one can't imagine a person who wouldn't have to admit its the bigger achievement, compared to Avengers, simply because of expectations. And reboot! And success!
Reply
post #13368 of 16671
7/13/12 at 2:08pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd View Post

But Bailey! ASM has clearly proven itself a massive success, whether you ignore it or not. I for one can't imagine a person who wouldn't have to admit its the bigger achievement, compared to Avengers, simply because of expectations. And reboot! And success!

 

Yeah, that's exactly what I was saying.  What the fuck are you talking about?   

Reply
post #13369 of 16671
7/13/12 at 2:27pm

Hey stay cool, guys. I am glad that TASM is doing well myself.

Reply
post #13370 of 16671
7/13/12 at 2:40pm

Some Thursday domestic notes:

 

The last Madea movie just crossed $50 Million.

 

Mirror Mirror has now made more money then Battleship.

 

Edit: previous mix up with another thread, sorry.


Edited by MrBananaGrabber - 7/13/12 at 2:55pm
Reply
post #13371 of 16671
7/13/12 at 2:42pm

Whoa, Nolan really is making this one true to life.  Bane is involved with Romney??

Reply
post #13372 of 16671
7/13/12 at 2:56pm

To late, I already hid my shame.

Reply
post #13373 of 16671
7/13/12 at 4:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cccc View Post

 

So what?  And Avatar made 2.7B.   It's all relative.  ASM will still make close to 800M world wide.  However you cut it that's success.  It's hard to reboot a franchise.  Batman Begins only made 372M WW.   

 

Says the guy who breathlessly reported to us that tASM blasted the Avengers for opening weekends in S. Korea and India.

Reply
post #13374 of 16671
7/13/12 at 4:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBananaGrabber View Post

Some Thursday domestic notes:

 

The last Madea movie just crossed $50 Million.

 

Mirror Mirror has now made more money then Battleship.

 

 

Where are these 119 screens still showing Mirror Mirror? Is Mirror Mirror the new Gone With the Wind?

Reply
post #13375 of 16671
7/13/12 at 7:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBananaGrabber View Post

Some Thursday domestic notes:

 

The last Madea movie just crossed $50 Million.

 

Is it really the last one?

Reply
post #13376 of 16671
7/13/12 at 8:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

Where are these 119 screens still showing Mirror Mirror? Is Mirror Mirror the new Gone With the Wind?

Whoa, Gone With the Wind is one of the biggest commercial and financial successes in the history of the medium. Mirror Mirror can exist comfortably in the tier just under, next to such films as The Graduate or Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. But it will take the fullness of time to really assess it accurately.
Reply
post #13377 of 16671
7/13/12 at 8:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cylon Baby View Post

Is it really the last one?

 

Not until Big Momma, Madea & the Klumps Save the World!

Reply
post #13378 of 16671
7/13/12 at 10:21pm

Or the Patton Oswalt penned MADEA GETS DIARRHEA IN KOREA.

Reply
post #13379 of 16671
7/14/12 at 12:39am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastian OB View Post

250 million for THE APPARITITON?! I'm a bigtime horror guy, but are you sure you didn't add a zero on to the end of that total?

Haha oh no I meant 25 mil. I'm not that optimistic.

Reply
post #13380 of 16671
7/14/12 at 12:52am

Don't back down, man! Stick to your guns!

Reply
post #13381 of 16671
7/14/12 at 3:10am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Episode29 View Post

Don't back down, man! Stick to your guns!

"NO RETREAT!! NO SURRENDER!!"

Reply
post #13382 of 16671
7/14/12 at 5:49am
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

 

Says the guy who breathlessly reported to us that tASM blasted the Avengers for opening weekends in S. Korea and India.

 

Was that not true?   Dont get your point?

Reply
post #13383 of 16671
7/14/12 at 6:05am

Yeah, Deadline just confirmed that it passed the $400 Million mark on Tuesday. It should hit around $197 Million Domestic by this weekend.

Reply
post #13384 of 16671
7/14/12 at 7:02am
Quote:
Originally Posted by cccc View Post

 

Was that not true?   Dont get your point?

 

That was you comparing tASM to the Avengers, McFly. I compared them back for you.

Reply
post #13385 of 16671
7/14/12 at 7:15am
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

 

That was you comparing tASM to the Avengers, McFly. I compared them back for you.

 

O'kay if you must.   

Reply
post #13386 of 16671
7/14/12 at 7:22am

I'm gonna give it a go for August.  Because.

 

DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: 55 MILLION

TOTAL RECALL: 150 MILLION

THE BOURNE LEGACY: 180 MILLION

THE CAMPAIGN: 40 MILLION

HOPE SPRINGS: 30 MILLION

THE EXPENDABLES 2: 150 MILLION

THE ODD LIFE OF TIMOTHY GREEN: 10 MILLION

PARANORMAN: 30 MILLION

SPARKLE: 20 MILLION

THE APPARITION: 20 MILLION

HIT AND RUN: 10 MILLION

PREMIUM RUSH: 20 MILLION

LAWLESS: 30 MILLION

THE POSSESSION: 25 MILLION

Reply
post #13387 of 16671
7/14/12 at 8:33am

Here's the CHUD Average so far for every movie. I think every single one is high with the very slim possible exception of Bourne

 

 

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days 43.3
Totall Recall 73.7
Bourne Legacy 134.3
The Campaign 47.1
Hope Springs 57.3
Expendables 2 120.1
The Odd Life of Timothy Green 18.1
ParaNorman 56.9
Sparkle 38.6
The Apparition 24.6
Hit & Run 13.4
Premium Rush 29.0
Lawless 35.4
The Possession 29.4
Reply
post #13388 of 16671
7/14/12 at 9:56am

I am not sure how this works but if it's not too late to play, here are my estimates:

 

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: 27 Million Dollars

Total Recall: 117 Million Dollars

Bourne Legacy: 144 Million Dollars

Hope Springs: 37 Million Dollars

The Expendables 2: 122 Million Dollars

The Odd Life of Timothy Green: 28 Million Dollars

Paranorman: 36 Million Dollars

Sparkle: 24 Million Dollars

The Apparition: 26 Million Dollars

Hit and Run: 32 Million Dollars

Premium Rush: 37 Million Dollars

Lawless: 42 Million Dollars

The Possession: 16 Million Dollars

 

& The Campaign: 77 Million Dollars


Edited by Dr Harford - 7/14/12 at 11:49am
Reply
post #13389 of 16671
7/14/12 at 11:36am

You're missing The Campaign, Dr.  

Reply
post #13390 of 16671
7/14/12 at 11:49am
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

You're missing The Campaign, Dr.  

I added it, thanks for catching that!

Reply
post #13391 of 16671
7/14/12 at 12:44pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

 

No.  270 is about the best TASM can hope for at this point.

You think TASM can only make it to 270, man i don't know.  It will be pretty close to 200 mil by sunday and should be near 220 mil by the time TDKR opens.  It seems me and you are not that far apart on what we think it will end up at, at the absolute worst case scenario i see high 200's for TASM.

Reply
post #13392 of 16671
7/14/12 at 12:50pm

Well it obviously depends on how big a chunk TDKR takes out of it, but it's going to have to chug along to get much beyond that.  Still has to be viewed as a success stateside, on the order of a solid double... to say nothing of the foreign grosses.  But if the base isn't completely pleased with the direction of the franchise, given the popularity of the character, it seems a hollow victory.

Reply
post #13393 of 16671
7/14/12 at 1:42pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by orlando View Post

You think TASM can only make it to 270, man i don't know.  It will be pretty close to 200 mil by sunday and should be near 220 mil by the time TDKR opens.  It seems me and you are not that far apart on what we think it will end up at, at the absolute worst case scenario i see high 200's for TASM.

 

Look at it this way... tripling an opening weekend is not a bad rule of thumb for comic book movies (of the seven movies I looked at, only The Dark Knight and Iron Man eclipsed that... Avengers would need another 10 million to do it. (I looked at Thor, Cap, Avengers, Spider-Man 3, Green Lantern, Iron Man and TDK).

 

TASM's opening weekend was $62 million. Triple it and get 186. Add on the money it made on before its opening weekend and you get $261. Calling 270 the ceiling is a very safe bet. And if TDKR takes a healthy chunk of it... we know it will take most of its screens... 240-250 might be more in line with what we should expect.

 

ETA: The average of those seven movies was 2.84*the opening weekend... that would give us a ceiling of 251... Transformers did 3.31*OW+preOW

Reply
post #13394 of 16671
7/15/12 at 9:12am

Ice Age 4 opened with 46 M. Surprisingly after Moonrise Kingdom, Brave dropped the least in the top 10 even with a competing animated film. Spider-Man dropped only 43% its second weekend passing 200 M domestically.

Reply
post #13395 of 16671
7/15/12 at 9:25am

Magic Mike well on its way to $100m. On a $7m budget. Soda Mountain's biggest hit relative to cost ever? Olivia Munn's enchanted boobies?

 

And yeah, Moonrise Kingdom is already Wes's second-biggest hit and it still isn't playing anywhere close to me. Kudos to him, anyway, for getting that cast and still bringing it in at $16m. Proves that Willis, for one, hasn't sold his soul just yet; he probably made couch change on this.

Reply
post #13396 of 16671
7/15/12 at 10:15am
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

 

Look at it this way... tripling an opening weekend is not a bad rule of thumb for comic book movies (of the seven movies I looked at, only The Dark Knight and Iron Man eclipsed that... Avengers would need another 10 million to do it. (I looked at Thor, Cap, Avengers, Spider-Man 3, Green Lantern, Iron Man and TDK).

 

TASM's opening weekend was $62 million. Triple it and get 186. Add on the money it made on before its opening weekend and you get $261. Calling 270 the ceiling is a very safe bet. And if TDKR takes a healthy chunk of it... we know it will take most of its screens... 240-250 might be more in line with what we should expect.

 

ETA: The average of those seven movies was 2.84*the opening weekend... that would give us a ceiling of 251... Transformers did 3.31*OW+preOW

Yeah, that's an interesting take on it. If a film has a big opening weekend, and it ends up trippling that number domestically, how can you not consider it a success. Obviously the more money a film opens with the more difficult it will become to achieve that feat, which makes what the AVENGERS will soon accomplish another astronomical feat when you look it that way, just like it was for TDK. And you're right TDKR will take a huge chunk of money away from TASM, that being said this film will play in theaters for another 3-4 months,  so it will have time to build it's numbers up.

Reply
post #13397 of 16671
7/15/12 at 10:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd View Post

But Bailey! ASM has clearly proven itself a massive success, whether you ignore it or not. I for one can't imagine a person who wouldn't have to admit its the bigger achievement, compared to Avengers, simply because of expectations. And reboot! And success!

I'm not so sure i agree with that, i know people we're taking a dump on the reboot idea, but it's still 'Spider-Man' and he's right there with 'Batman' when it comes to popularity. I think we all can say we expected TASM to at least be a hit, rather you planned on seeing it or not. I could'nt have seen TASM doing no worse than 250 mil domestic and 600 mil global, and that's at the worse case. Yes, i think we all expected AVENGERS to be a huge hit, but over 600 mil domestic and heading to over 1.5 bil global, how many people seen that coming, because to be honest i did'nt. Calling TASM a bigger achievement than what the AVENGERS has accomplished, i can't go that far. I get the point you're making, but again TASM was going to be a hit, no matter what.

Reply
post #13398 of 16671
7/15/12 at 10:32am

What's everyone thinking for DKR's opening weekend? I'll go with 185.

Reply
post #13399 of 16671
7/15/12 at 12:30pm

200+.  I've never seen ticket sales on this level.

Reply
post #13400 of 16671
7/15/12 at 1:01pm

You think it takes the 3-day now?

Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: CHUD.COM Main
CHUD.com Community › Forums › THE MAIN SEWER › CHUD.COM Main › CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread