CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 272

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Originally Posted by Paul C 

I mean 'good enough' in the sense that it's the sequel to a movie that's massively popular and mostly acclaimed, and apparently doesn't drop the ball too drastically. I suspect when all is said and done this movie will always be overshadowed by its predecessor. I'm expecting a decent, serviceable end, but not a movie that's all that remarkable in itself. I'm not convinced it's as zeitgeisty as The Avengers proved to be, it'll be interesting to see how it fares after the inevitably massive opening.

You make some good points. It will indeed have a massive opening, at worst i can see no less than 155 million and maybe as much as 175 million.  I think it will play reasonably strong and probally end up in the 450 million range domestically. But hey, i could be wrong.

Remember, kids. Batman hates people that predict OWs in ranges.

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Originally Posted by wd40 

Perhaps he should drive his Civic to the bat-signal instead? ;)

I was going to make a similar joke... you even picked the right car.

edit- er... sorry, nooj, the right cahhrrrrr.

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Originally Posted by Chet Ripley 

Have there ever been any movies released where tickets were being scalped for sold out opening-day showings?
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TDK.

Hahah so this thread has now moved from predicting Box Office to predicting Tomato meter ratings!

I say...$195M for Dark Knight Rises!

I like where the rating is sitting now. Also, you have to remember that a movie that is "just pleasant enough" could potentially get a higher  RT score if it doesn't offend anybody and is entertaining (I'm thinking of Iron Man which has the same RT score as TDK, but TDK is better to me *PERSONAL OPINION). I hope TDKR goes for broke in some areas and turns some people off. One of the greatest movies of all time only got a 75% (The Assasination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford) and I liked Inception (86%) better than TDK (94%). I'm not reading any reviews until I see it, so I'm slightly curious as to what kind of critic is rating it where and if more hardcore Bat fans rate it more favorably.

 

We're being punked, right?

I give Byron a 9.5 but I can't dance to it...

Since we're now in the RT prediction game, I'm going 84% for Iron Man 3, 73% for Thor 2, and 75% for Captain America 2.  Try to beat me, fuckers.  I've got this shit down.

TDKR's average score is an 8.3/10 at 87% fresh.  That's excellent.

Been tracking midnight sell-outs and TDKR's easily beating every film that isn't Deathly Hallows Part 2.  And even if it doesn't take DH2's midnight record, it's going to hold up much better for the rest of Friday.  I'm telling ya, guys -- we could see $100m in a single day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Navidson 

I like where the rating is sitting now. Also, you have to remember that a movie that is "just pleasant enough" could potentially get a higher  RT score if it doesn't offend anybody and is entertaining (I'm thinking of Iron Man which has the same RT score as TDK, but TDK is better to me *PERSONAL OPINION). I hope TDKR goes for broke in some areas and turns some people off. One of the greatest movies of all time only got a 75% (The Assasination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford) and I liked Inception (86%) better than TDK (94%). I'm not reading any reviews until I see it, so I'm slightly curious as to what kind of critic is rating it where and if more hardcore Bat fans rate it more favorably.

I still feel like people are trying to rationalise this thing into being the masterpiece they want it to be, sight unseen. No one is turned off by DKR because their poor minds can't handle how daring and radical it is, it just sounds like it's a bit mediocre in some respects.

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

Been tracking midnight sell-outs and TDKR's easily beating every film that isn't Deathly Hallows Part 2.  And even if it doesn't take DH2's midnight record, it's going to hold up much better for the rest of Friday.  I'm telling ya, guys -- we could see $100m in a single day.

Think its going to get very close to the midnight record. If it takes $100M total for the opening day, the 3-day is locked.

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Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd 

Oh, I think I'll wait until I see it before I start speculating as to what I'll think of it a year from now.

I think TDKR is going to be one of those films that, even if you love it on first viewing, will need some time and distance to really get a bead on its longevity.

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Originally Posted by MichaelM 

 

I think TDKR is going to be one of those films that, even if you love it on first viewing, will need some time and distance to really get a bead on its longevity.

It'll do fine.  It doesn't sound like a "The Godfather Part III" and people are relatively enjoying it (flaws and all). Even if this doesn't prove to be the hit like "TDK," it'll probably do really well in its theatrical run, and definitely exceptional when it hits home media.  

I think people are overstating how mixed-to-negative the reviews are. This thing has got a slew of full-marks reviews from across the critical spectrum. It's not the darling of the circuit that THE DARK KNIGHT was, but was it ever going to be?
 

I think Prometheus started at about 85% and then fell to 72%.  There are still about 100 reviews for Rises which have not come in yet, so I expect the score to drop.

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Originally Posted by MrBananaGrabber 

I will be those brownies' RECKONING!

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Originally Posted by Ambler 

I think Prometheus started at about 85% and then fell to 72%.  There are still about 100 reviews for Rises which have not come in yet, so I expect the score to drop.

Prometheus was at 85% with less than 50 reviews in.  TDKR is at 87% with 154.

I saw it last night.  I think it's going to be fine.  It ups the fun factor with a big second half, even if the finale falls a little short.  It has enough weight to warrant some multiple viewings based on what people may have missed the first time.  I myself am going back on Saturday, and plan on an Imax trip (thought my screening was going to be Imax, so I refuse to miss it in 70mm) within another 2 weeks.  I can be considered a very strong and somewhat critical batman comic fan, and knowing that myself and my non fan wife enjoyed it makes me think I may have under predicted the overall.  The weekend will be difficult with the long run times and lack of 3d, but I wouldn't count it out.

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

 

Prometheus was at 85% with less than 50 reviews in.  TDKR is at 87% with 154.

100 reviews is alot, so I suspect it will drop.  I never said how much.

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Originally Posted by Ambler 

 

100 reviews is alot, so I suspect it will drop.  I never said how much.

But there's a consensus out there, and I don't mean RT's.  Movies don't swing when they have this many reviews.  So could it go 1 or 2 points in either direction?  Yeah.  But that's hardly a real change.

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

could it go 1 or 2 points in either direction?  Yeah. 

Essentially what I said.  I suspect it will drop.  

By a point or two?  O...kay...

Its too bad we can't like a movie on our own without Rotten Tomatoes approving...

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

By a point or two?  O...kay...

A point or two isn't exciting enough?  

No.  Not in the least.  Does it really make a difference if the film ends up at 84% or 88%?

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

No.  Not in the least.  Does it really make a difference if the film ends up at 84% or 88%?

To defensive Nolan fans it does.

There are extremist idiots for just about every major filmmaker and/or geek-centric property. Don't get started on the Whedon people and "In Nolan We Truuuuuuuust!" ones sound like they're in a fucking cult (and I'm a big of Nolan!)

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Originally Posted by Ambler 

 

To defensive Nolan fans it does.

Who the fuck cares?  There are defensive, clueless, psychotic fans of everything.

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

Who the fuck cares?  

Apparently you do, considering you've dedicated 5 posts to a subject that doesn't make any difference.  My initial comment was literally just a harmless observation and you turned it into courtroom drama.  Seriously, it's nothing.

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Originally Posted by Ambler 

 

Apparently you do, considering you've dedicated 5 posts to a subject that doesn't make any difference.  My initial comment was literally just a harmless observation and you turned into courtroom drama.  Seriously, it's nothing.

Except to 'defensive Nolan fans,' who are apparently something new to the world.

Your first comment read like you thought the film would swing by 10-15 points when over 150 reviews are in, which is just silly and caught my eye.  Then you essentially said you only expected it to change by a point or two, which is the equivalent of me saying "You know, I think The Bourne Legacy will score somewhere between 40 and 90 at Rotten Tomatoes."  Well, yeah.  Duh.

I love that a thread ostensibly about number-crunching can be so highly entertaining.

This is serious, serious shit, Jacob.  What's more important than the amount of money in a studio exec's wallet?  I'll tell you the only thing more important -- the Tomatometer.

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

 

Your first comment read like you thought the film would swing by 10-15 points 

The you read wrong.  It happens.  Let's drop it.

NO.  This only ends in bloodshed and tears.  This is the internet, we don't drop things.

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Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie 

Its too bad we can't like a movie on our own without Rotten Tomatoes approving...

Not when you get this shiny logo on your bluray box telling you what a great choice you've made

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

 

Prometheus was at 85% with less than 50 reviews in.  TDKR is at 87% with 154.

Yeah, even if by chance TDKR dropped, it would'nt drop by much, too many reviews are now in. I think it ends somehwere between 85-88% on RT, it has too many reviews in now to have a big rise or  big drop in my opinion.

What I miss....            oh.

OK...not to minimize the tragedy or to make light of the situation, but how much do all the morning's US national headlines screaming "Batman/Dark Knight Theater Shooting" drop the weekend take?

It may be a negligible amount, I'm not really sure, but that's definitely something that will keep some people from showing up at a theater this weekend when they otherwise might have.

There will be some people on the margins that don't go. The stories are just going to get worse. I don't even want to post the predictions, it seems so trivial now.

Well, here they are.

(In good news, nice new interface for uploading photos.)

Seeing estimates of $27 to $30 million for the midnight shows.  That would put it fourth on the list of all-time midnight grosses.

I want to tread lightly here, but what are the chances the gunman was an Avengers fanatic and didn't want to see it's record beaten?

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Originally Posted by Ambler 

I want to tread lightly here, but what are the chances the gunman was an Avengers fanatic and didn't want to see it's record beaten?

Is that a serious post?

I think there are at least a dozen other more plausible scenarios, including but not limited to "it was Sean Young still mad about missing out on the Catwoman role".
 

Most likely is "Disturbed guy going where he knew there'd be a crowd and attention."

Half and half.  I mean, we live in a world where a couple of high school kids shot up a school because they weren't popular.  People do horrible, fucked up, stupid shit for stupid reasons all the time.