CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 274

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Originally Posted by MikeI 

 

You're looking for rational explanations of an irrational act. This is not how schizophrenia works. If David Berkowitz's neighbor didn't have a dog, he still would have killed those people.

Has it been reported, or even hinted at, that the shooter is schizophrenic? I don't recall that it has and yet I keep seeing people bringing that diagnosis up for discussion as though it has. I know that it's a condition that's often misunderstood and that it's also a go-to shorthand buzzword for people to substitute for "crazy" but, in all fairness to those afflicted with the condition and dealing with it on a daily basis, let's actually wait to get the facts before just throwing it out there.

Just to note, I am not saying it won't affect numbers at all, only that it probably won't affect them *that much* - this movie was not going to gross over $180(or so) million opening weekend no matter what.  The events early Friday morning will probably bump it down to about $165 million from a probable $175(or so) ... but either way, it wasn't going to break any records other than 2D opening. Which is nothing to scoff at! Kudos to Nolan and crew.

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Originally Posted by dw1977 

But...this movie is NOT AS GOOD as The Dark Knight (fact)

CinemaScore grades:

Batman Begins - A

The Dark Knight - A

The Dark Knight Rises - A

It doesn't matter how 'good (fact)' the movie is, just how much audiences like it.

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Originally Posted by dw1977 

Just to note, I am not saying it won't affect numbers at all, only that it probably won't affect them *that much* - this movie was not going to gross over $180(or so) million opening weekend no matter what.  The events early Friday morning will probably bump it down to about $165 million from a probable $175(or so) ... but either way, it wasn't going to break any records other than 2D opening. Which is nothing to scoff at! Kudos to Nolan and crew.

You can say that, but we'll never know for sure now. But yeah, no one should be crying over these numbers.

Anecdotal evidence once again, but I have not been hearing the overwhelmingly rave reviews about this one, as we heard coming out of The Dark Knight. I've been hearing a lot of "good not great" from across the board. And - fact - there was no stand-out performance on the level of Ledger's to incite multiple theatrical viewings, especially amongst the female demographic.  I will be amazed if it manages to break $400 million. But will gladly eat my words if it does! As someone else stated, it's just awesome that we have been given 3 well-done and well-received comic book movies in one summer!

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Originally Posted by dw1977 

Anecdotal evidence once again, but I have not been hearing the overwhelmingly rave reviews about this one,

And my social circle kept talking about how much better The Amazing Spider-Man was than the first three, and that's totally why it's making more money than Raimi's films!

Friends are meaningless.  If you're trying to gauge reaction, you need tools that involve masses of people -- CinemaScore, Twitter, etc.  And they're all indicating that reaction to TDKR is really, really positive.

Plus, the word of mouth is almost certainly going to seem underwhelming when coming off a phenomenon like The Dark Knight, which comparatively caught people by surprise with how good (not to mention 'Zeitgeisty') it was.

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Originally Posted by Bailey 

Plus, the word of mouth is almost certainly going to seem underwhelming when coming off a phenomenon like The Dark Knight, which comparatively caught people by surprise with how good (not to mention 'Zeitgeisty') it was.

And that's exactly my point. TDK was a "zeitgeisty" film and TDKR is not, so wouldn't you expect lower Friday evening numbers for TDKR, no matter what happened or didn't happen at the midnight show in Aurora?  All I was saying is that's exactly what I expected, and while the shooting may affect numbers *slightly* it's not going to have a huge effect. People love seeing movies like this in the theater. Only a small number of people are legitimately going to be "too scared" to go to the theater to see this thing. And it will have NO affect on how many see it multiple times, etc; that is based on how people feel about the film itself; or whether they give a shit about seeing it at all, since The Joker isn't part of the gallery of rogues. Personally, while I thought it was a nice ending to the trilogy, I don't require a second viewing of it (on the other hand, I saw TDK 3 times in theaters). I'm also not basing my anecdotal evidence simply on how I and my friends feel...it's based on reviews, various Twitter & Tumblr reactions, etc. Time will tell.

I dunno.  You don't have to really capture the Zeitgeist to break box office records.  Take Avengers; that was just a really popular, fun, huge fucking movie.  So no, I wouldn't necessarily expect lower numbers for TDKR.

I would argue that The Avengers IS a zeitgeist film. I mean, it quite obviously is...over $600 million domestic for a superhero film?? Before May 4th, anyone making that prediction would have been laughed off the internets. The first truly awesome combination of superheroes on the big screen, amazing script, amazing performances, captured the hearts of the youngest and the oldest among us (my freakin' 69 year old mom LOVES that movie and she is not a cinema-goer in the slightest)...and The Hulk. And proof, perhaps (time will tell), that during these times, people WANT more fun and not so much dark. Definition of zeitgeist: "the spirit, attitude, or general outlook of a specific time or period, esp as it is reflected in literature, philosophy, etc."

You're essentially saying anything that is very popular fits that definition, and it really doesn't.  Avatar?  A film nobody will be talking about except with regards to its box office (and possibly technical innovation) in 20 years is, right now, the most popular film of all time.

All you have to do is go down the list.  If box office popularity = Zeitgeist, that means that The Matrix wasn't a film of the moment, but Star Wars The Phantom Menace was.  You can't simply apply box office to the argument and think that explains it.

The buzz around The Dark Knight was Heath Ledger. His death and the ravings of his performance and how "scary" it was got more people interested in it. The buzz around this one is that it's the final chapter and what kind of things could happen to certain characters with the finality it is. While Hardy and Hathaway deliver fine performances, there's something missing that would compel people to rave about it and increase the buzz. You can't rave about the ending so much either. 

I feel like you're arguing in circles here. First, you claimed that since The Dark Knight was a zeitgeist, that's why it made more money that TDKR will end up making. Then you argue that that's not true in other cases. I think you are applying personal perception to your definition of zeitgeist. To many, many people across the world, Avatar IS a zeitgeist film. Just because you're not one of them, or that many of the "film elite" don't agree with that, doesn't mean it isn't true. Anything that captures cultural acclaim to the tune of over 2 billion dollars worldwide is a freakin' zeitgeist. And Star Wars, prequels and all, is 100% a zeitgeist.  When you mention a character or a film in casual conversation and nearly 100% of people know what you are talking about, THAT is a zeitgeist. The Matrix is a sci-fi fan's zeitgeist film, sure...but it is not a *broad* cultural zeitgeist on the level of Star Wars, Batman, and now The Avengers.  

edit: How many more times can I use ZEITGEIST in a paragraph? Ha!

First of all, I'm not arguing in circles, you're just not following what I'm saying.  I never said that TDKR wouldn't make more money because it wasn't a Zeitgeist film.  In fact, I said I wouldn't necessarily expect it to make less money just because it isn't.  Because popular things that aren't of the Zeitgeist make a lot of money all the time.  What I said was that because it doesn't seem to be part of the Zeitgeist, at least not to the level of TDK, that would hurt the perception of what people thought of it, vis a vis the word of mouth.  It just doesn't have that surprise influx of buzz that swept up TDK.

If anything you're the one contradicting yourself.  Because by your definition of financial success = Zeitgeist, then TDKR would almost certainly have to apply, since it's already amazingly popular, and will make a shitload of money, and be known by billions of people the world over.  Yet you specifically stated it's not of the Zeitgeist.

What was zeitegeisty about The Avengers?  I'm not attacking that film, I just don't think it hit the level of public consciousness that, say, The Dark Knight did.

A few weeks ago a baby was punched in the face at a Mirror Mirror screening, but did the "Lamestream Media" report that?!

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Originally Posted by dw1977 

My 69 year old mother (who does not usually go to movies and has never read a comicbook in her life) asked for Captain America paraphernalia for her birthday after seeing The Avengers...that's pretty zeitgeisty.

And my 53 year old mother who does not usually go to the movies and has never read a comic book said that The Dark Knight Rises is her favorite movie of the last ten years.  So?

Of course it's anecdotal, just as the story of your mom is.

I don't think The Avengers is a 'zeitgeist' film.  I think it's a movie people liked a heckuva bunch, like Avatar.  But I don't think it's like The Dark Knight where people were talking about the Joker months and months after seeing the film.

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Originally Posted by Agent Z 

Has it been reported, or even hinted at, that the shooter is schizophrenic? I don't recall that it has and yet I keep seeing people bringing that diagnosis up for discussion as though it has. I know that it's a condition that's often misunderstood and that it's also a go-to shorthand buzzword for people to substitute for "crazy" but, in all fairness to those afflicted with the condition and dealing with it on a daily basis, let's actually wait to get the facts before just throwing it out there.

He referred to himself as the Joker. Either he is schizophrenic or he is feigning schizophrenia.

This tragedy definitely had an effect on the opening weekend. There is no doubt.

And, once again, the preemptive defense against attacks that are not at all likely to come from Avengers fans is the worst kind of strawman tactic.

I saw it today at a 5:00 show and there was utter silence through the whole thing.  No response at the end either.  This thing just did not click with that crowd.

I'm seeing lots of reports of family box office attendance being way down.  TDKR isn't the only thing that's taking a hit.

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Originally Posted by dw1977 

It will be interesting to see the numbers Monday, for sure.
And I guess we will have to agree to disagree about The Avengers "zeitgeisty-ness" - as far as I'm concerned, a superhero film combining multiple heroes in a way that has never been seen before (on the big screen anyway), which wasn't "supposed" to make over $450 million (if it was lucky) and will instead end up closing in on $630, is the very definition of a cultural zeitgeist film. But hey, I'm only a passionate observer, so I don't really know anything

Is Avatar a zeitgeist film?  After all, it used 3D in a way that had never been done before, wasn't "supposed" to make over $250 million and instead finished up over $700 million.

Nikke Finke has some weekend projections:

The Dark Knight Rises - $163 million

Ice Age: Continental Drift - $20.6 million (-56%)

The Amazing Spider-Man - $11.1 million (-68%)

Ted - $10.3 million (-55%)

Brave - $5.7 million (-49%)

Magic Mike - $4.3 million (-53%)

Savages - $3.3 million (-65%)

Madea's Witness Protection - $2.2 million (-61%)

Moonrise Kingdom - $1.9 million (-49%)

Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - $1.5 million (-60%)

Yeah, look at those drops and say the Aurora shooting's impact on box office was minimal.

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Originally Posted by Tim K 

There is a chance that box office numbers might not be released for the week end.
The Hollywood Reporter: 'Dark Knight' Shooting: In Gesture of Sympathy, Studios May Not Report Box Office Grosses This Weekend

I get not wanting to look insensitive, but this shooting had fuck all to do with the movie on the screen.

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

Yeah, look at those drops and say the Aurora shooting's impact on box office was minimal.

No kidding. TDKR took a nosedive compared to TDK's -29% drop from Friday to Saturday and Sunday looks to continue the trend.

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Originally Posted by brandhay 

No kidding. TDKR took a nosedive compared to TDK's -29% drop from Friday to Saturday and Sunday looks to continue the trend.

It's not just TDKR.  Ted fell 55% when its previous largest drop was 40%.  Moonrise Kingdom fell 49% when it only fell 18% last week.

But couldn't some of the bigger drops have to do with the fact that a 160+ million dollar behemoth opened this weekend?  The average drop in the top ten the weekend Avengers opened was fairly similar... only 2-3 percent lower.

(I don't discount the idea that the shooting affected the box office this weekend.  Of course it did.  But I don't know that the drops are proof enough to say it had that huge of an impact.  I just think more data would be useful if we really want to know.)

Speaking personally, if I hadn't already Fandango'd my tickets, I think there's a better than average chance that I wouldn't have rushed out for Batman. It really took the wind out of my sails. There's not going to be a way to quantify it really, but I bet in the alternate timeline you'd see drastically different numbers.

For the movie itself, yes I think it probably took a good 20 mill off or more.  I'm just saying I'm not sure there's a clear indication yet it had that kind of impact for movies in general this weekend.  Some, certainly.

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Originally Posted by Bailey 

But couldn't some of the bigger drops have to do with the fact that a 160+ million dollar behemoth opened this weekend?  The average drop in the top ten the weekend Avengers opened was fairly similar... only 2-3 percent lower.

Most of the films in the top 10 when The Avengers was released were in their second weekend, when films generally see their biggest drops.  This weekend films that had held up really well beforehand suddenly plunged.

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2011&wknd=28&p=.htm

Here's the comparable weekend last year when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 opened.  Look at how much smaller the drops are for most holdovers.

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Originally Posted by Richard Dickson 

I saw it today at a 5:00 show and there was utter silence through the whole thing.  No response at the end either.  This thing just did not click with that crowd.

Same here.   

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Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

 

Is Avatar a zeitgeist film?  After all, it used 3D in a way that had never been done before, wasn't "supposed" to make over $250 million and instead finished up over $700 million.

Yeah, that blew me away.   I was at the midnight showing and the crowd was not that into it.  I thought at best 250.  I didn't expect it to gross over 700B.   

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Originally Posted by cccc 

Same here.   

weird, mine ate it up.

Which scene did they like best?

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Originally Posted by MikeI 

 

He referred to himself as the Joker. Either he is schizophrenic or he is feigning schizophrenia.

 

You taught us so much with so little. Thank you.

Avatar was obviously a zeitgeist movie, I'm not sure how that can even be questioned.

I'm sorry, I reserve nice medical terms like schizophrenic for those who don't shoot 70 people.  Those people I call crazy, asshole, sociopathic, batshit, demon, devil or any other derogatory term I want.  If said person doesn't plan this out for months and assemble the arsenal he did, booby trap his apartment and systematically plot the destruction he did, then I would have a little compassion.  As it stands I have none. 

As far as zeitgeist movie, and it's not good, get over your anecdotal opinion.  First, this is a box office thread, and we have seen some horrible films get some good box office, and vice versa.  TDKR had a lot more going for it in those regards than Avengers, because TDK was a zeitgeist movie and it had a lot of people willing to continue to the next one.  Arguably, the Marvel crowd has had less box office, and that box office may be a lot of the same that saw all of them in theaters, so a much smaller starting fan base.  Sorry, fanboy or troll all you like, those are box office numbers.  

Avengers was a success because it was a great film, as well as what it was built on.  TDKR remains to be seen what people think, but it had a much larger built in crowd to start with.  What happened this weekend robbed us of knowing how people would have really thought about it, as we have fans that would have gone that are waiting until the dust settles, and we have folks that are only going because it where a tragedy happened, and not to enjoy the film.  

Anyone want to start a DVD sales thread, so we can needlessly compare who sold more DVDs in the first week, Avengers or TDKR.

Edited to add numbers:

Captain America                       Domestic: $176,654,505

My Saturday night crowd was more weirdly more responsive than the midnight screening one, except for the very end. Both audiences clapped*, but the midnight screener's clapping was fuller.

However, I will say  based solely on visual scanning by me (and talking to the theater manager), attendance was definitely down. Saturday night at this particular theater is usually jammed. Not so much last night - though TDKR was very full (nearly every seat filled, including the shitty seats on the floor below the railing).

*I'd be interested in reading a paper on why people clap to a projected story in which none of the performers can hear the reaction.

The first projections I saw for the weekend were 180-185. Then 172. Now 163. The projections I saw for just about every movie in release went down. The shooting had an effect, and seemingly a larger effect than I would have anticipated.

You can call it whatever you want as I assume you are not a trained psychologist or a member of the Colorado justice system. But the man is either divorced from reality, or, again, feigning being divorced from reality. That's schizophrenia.

If his intention was to prove how easy it is for one person to disrupt society if they aren't afraid of getting caught, then I would call him a sociopath for his lack of value of human life. Words mean things.

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Originally Posted by MichaelM 

*I'd be interested in reading a paper on why people clap to a projected story in which none of the performers can hear the reaction.

To revel in the communal, shared experience is a positive reason. I always question why one person claps at a movie that no one else liked. It just comes across as "I got this movie and you all didn't so I'm so much better than you." I know it's not the intention, it's just how it comes across.

I never claimed to be a psychologist, not do I think that is relevant.  Someone who kills a 6 year old girl doesn't get sympathy.  Period.  Yes, we as a society need to try to figure out what led there, but this soul is lost and my mind is closed.  

BTW, last I knew, you were a numbers man and not a psychologist.  

Jahosive, why on Earth do you think calling someone "schizophrenic" is "sympathetic"? It's a medical diagnosis, nothing more. It's not like the laws of science suddenly stop applying when someone does something awful.