CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 279

How nice of future orlando to come back in time to let us know how it'll all pan out.

I think there's a real chance Total Recall only hits teens next weekend.

They sure as hell aren't spending much on marketing. I've seen like two commercials for it, at most.

I was actually kind of stoked to take my oldest to totall recall before I saw it was rated PG-13. I think the suits are missing out on the appeal of these movies. The whole rated R thing is part of what made the movies seem so great when we were kids. A few dirty words and a maybe some boobs can make a 10-13 year old feel like he is really getting away with something. That father/son bonding thing that happens when a kid feels like his old man is treating him as more grown up is really a fond memory from my own childhood. But by taking a movie like Recall and making it PG-13; you turn off the nostalgia audience (we saw it as an R as kids, why would we want to see a sanitized version), you lose that edge for the teens (just another in a sea of PG-13 action flicks), you lose the father son angle (any father that wont take his son to recall still wont just cuz it's pg13). I took my boy to his first R in the theatre this summer (prometheus which took me back to my youth with Alien around his age).

A PG-13 is perfectly attainable (or used to be) for the film that offers only "a few dirty words and maybe some boobs". That was the point of establishing a rating between PG and R.

Used to be, but nowadays PG-13 can be violent as shit but language and boobs had better not make so much as a cameo.

Little Timmy can see as many dismemberments as he wants, but nipples are out of the question.

$400M is beyond locked.

Called the 60% drop. The Friday drop was inflated because of those huge midnights last week but otherwise the Saturday and Sunday drops were consistent with TDK. This is still on its way to 425M-450M.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie 

$400M is beyond locked.

Yeah, the Saturday boost guarantees 400.  500 is slightly possible if it can match Inception's run from here on out.

Fun fact:

Assuming The Dark Knight Rises beats Total Recall next weekend (spoiler alert: it will), Nolan's last three films will have been #1 for three consecutive weeks or more.

Hard to imagine it losing next weekend. $450M+ domestic is great and, again, given the circumstances, it will be considered an even bigger win. Still think it outgrosses The Dark Knight worldwide.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jacob Singer 

They sure as hell aren't spending much on marketing. I've seen like two commercials for it, at most.

SONY has learned from what happened with Disney and John Carter,and Universal with Battleship  and decided to cut it's losses, and not add to the red ink in a doomed attempt to save  a almost certain bomb by a massive ..and expensive...ad campaign. Probably a wise decision.

The film's budget is rumored to be $200m (!).

Dammit, Farrell... you should be doing more films like In Bruges.  Not THIS!

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

The film's budget is rumored to be $200m (!).

Honestly. Took one look at the trailer and just assumed it cost that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcnooj82 

Dammit, Farrell... you should be doing more films like In Bruges.  Not THIS!

Don't worry.  He's got McDonagh's SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS up next!

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

$25m Saturday for TDKR?  40% Fri-Saturday increase?

 

 

"Ain't nothin's over till it's over."

Thanks to life, the BO for TDKR is the most unpredictable one yet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by orlando 

Your predictions are too low and I don't have the guts to make my own predictions so I'm just going to critique yours.

 

Fixed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Judas Booth 

This is a damned costly year on flops...JOHN CARTER, BATTLESHIP, and now possibly TOTAL RECALL. What's the worst year for flopping up til now?

Total Recall and Battleship deserve this kind of shit, if anything.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

 

Yeah, the Saturday boost guarantees 400.  500 is slightly possible if it can match Inception's run from here on out.

 

Fun fact:

Assuming The Dark Knight Rises beats Total Recall next weekend (spoiler alert: it will), Nolan's last three films will have been #1 for three consecutive weeks or more.

Who cares.  Lets not bring JC into this convo.

Yeah, guys, you should only post about how well a film's going to do if its AMAZING SPIDER-MAN.
 

I've been seeing plenty of Total Recall commercials, for what it's worth.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cccc 

Who cares.  Lets not bring JC into this convo.

FACT: Only two of James Cameron's last three feature films managed that feat

FACT: Those three encompass the last 18 years.

FACT: Referring to him as JC creepily emphasizes your worship of him

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg Clark 

How nice of future orlando to come back in time to let us know how it'll all pan out.

Oh you are very welcome, my pleasure, anytime. ESP is a helpful talent to have when you're looking into the future, haha. Just having fun with it man, like everybody else.

I think the race for number #1 between TDKR & Total Recall next weekend could be a very interesting one. Right now i would give the edge to TDKR, but i think it could be pretty close and go either way. TDKR should have a much smaller drop this weekend and start to stabelize, i'm think around a 50% drop this upcoming weekend for around 30-33M. While i don't think it will open huge, Total Recall could open between 25-35M in my opinion. What do you guys think.

I think it won't be a race.  Recall opens right around 20, potentially going under.

Hope Springs will play well to the oldies, or at least some of them, but also to no one else. The trailers seem to be proclaiming it the old person sex movie, and that doesn't hit too many quadrants.

And Farrell turned down Cronenberg's Cosmopolis for the cinematic equivalent of a Big Mac.  Idiot.

Will it open above or below the 25 M opening weekend of the 1990 film (and that's NOT adjusted for inflation). Pretty sad if it can't.

Quote:

Originally Posted by User_32 

Will it open above or below the 25 M opening weekend of the 1990 film (and that's NOT adjusted for inflation). Pretty sad if it can't.

LOL

Haha, I hadn't even thought of that.

Actually, at this point I think we might be undervaluing Total Recall's potential. But then, I don't really understand the animosity towards it online, so it's possible I'm out of sync with this one totally (recall). Predators made 52 mill, I'm expecting around that, but maybe the PG-13 buys them another 10-20. If you're not overly familiar with the original, maybe the ads play better.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeI 

 

Fixed.

Nah, i don't got guts, i got cahoonas my man.  Slow down Mikel, just having fun that's all bro.  I did however have the GUTS to make a prediction on next weekends box office battle between TDKR & Total Recall, would love for you to check it out and tell me what you think. Readjusted and FIXED the right way, haha.

Legs are (finally) settling in for The Dark Knight Rises and its first real competition won't be until Son of Bourne. Yeah... it beats Total Recall this weekend.

Quote:

Originally Posted by orlando 

Nah, i don't got guts, i got cahoonas my man.  Slow down Mikel, just having fun that's all bro.  I did however have the GUTS to make a prediction on next weekends box office battle between TDKR & Total Recall, would love for you to check it out and tell me what you think. Readjusted and FIXED the right way, haha.

I've often wondered what real bravery looks like. Thank you, and God bless you cahoonas.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd 

I'm impressed that any of you have any feelings at all about either Mark Webb or Peter Berg, especially to the point where you're ready to fight about it. Personally, I haven't really liked any of their movies that much, but I'll pick Webb, because Berg made Hancock. Total Recall would have to work pretty fucking hard to be worse than Hancock.

 

Speaking of Total Recall, I don't understand taking that one personally either. Walter White is playing the villain, which is quite simply enough for me.

 

AUGUST NUMBERS: DOG DAYS

 

DIary of a Wimpy Kid - 28 million (Spring franchise, perhaps not up to Summer)

Total Recall - 55 million 

Bourne Legacy - 85 million (I'm going low - I don't think anyone's gonna be too excited for this)

The Campaign - 65 million (this is not a confidently advertised film)

Hope Springs - 45 million

Expendables 2 - 90 million

Odd Life of Timothy Green - 9 million (Is this movie Christian? If it's Christian, I'd likely add ten million, but I'm not researching it)

Paranorman - 70 million

Sparkle - 30 million

The Apparition - 25 million

Hit & Run - 3 million

Premium Rush - 30 million

Lawless - 22 million

The Possession - 35 million

 

Ugh, rough ass month. Did you all hear The Master is coming out in September now?

Would'nt trying to rain on your parade or anything earlier bro, if it sounded like i came off like that i appoligize. Hell your predictions might turn out to be right for all i know, i was just throwing my little 2 cents in there having fun man. And yes August does look like it can be a pretty damn rough month and does'nt appear like it will do as well as past years unless we get some unexpected hits at the box office.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd 

 

I've often wondered what real bravery looks like. Thank you, and God bless you cahoonas.

Haha, bravery is a bitch my man. I just sent a post to you, it's all good man. I'm on this forum like you guys just having fun.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd 

Hope Springs will play well to the oldies, or at least some of them, but also to no one else. The trailers seem to be proclaiming it the old person sex movie, and that doesn't hit too many quadrants.

The thing about the oldies, and Julie and Julia and Midnight In Paris prove it, is that they're the two quadrants who still watch most of their movies in a theatre. I can see Hope being a monster in certain neighborhoods.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd 

Actually, at this point I think we might be undervaluing Total Recall's potential. But then, I don't really understand the animosity towards it online, so it's possible I'm out of sync with this one totally (recall). Predators made 52 mill, I'm expecting around that, but maybe the PG-13 buys them another 10-20. If you're not overly familiar with the original, maybe the ads play better.

To us fanboys a Total Recall reboot may be 'too soon', but to everyone else the Schwarzenegger version really was 20 years ago. That said, I'm not sure late July is where it ought to be. I just know that a Beckinsale/Biel fight scene ensures my attendance.

What was IT'S COMPLICATED final gross?  That's your answer for HOPE SPRINGS.  

Always wondered about this - what's the tax write-off on an advertising blitz? Does the advertising have to be successful for the given movie for the studio to reap the "rewards" of a write-off across the entire slate that financial year?

Tax Write off on  advertising for a film would be the same as for the production costs of a film....but my point was that SONY saw no point in wasting money on a huge ad campaign for a film that looked as if it was going to bomb no matter what.

Most BO tracking has Total Recall opening in the high 20's.....not good for a 200 Million dolllar movie.

There were no changes for June from last week. Brave and Magic Mike still remain unlocked. The race between Jamie, Dark Shape and CHUD Average tightened up and appears to be based entirely on the relative legs of Ted vs. Madea vs. Magic Mike. 

Here's July, with all films represented. 

I've locked tASM for Dark Shape. It's all but certain to get the ten million necessary to get within his range. It is equally unlikely to get the 28 million necessary to move it into Bob's column. everything else is up for grabs. TDKR remains the elephant in the room. The amount some people can miss on that will skew the entire rest of the month.

For August, because it's such a crapshoot, I am adding this one element: for every movie most accurately predicted, I will subtract $2 million dollars from your "Total per Movie." We will then have an adjusted total and adjusted rankings. We'll see how that works. I will continue to provide the raw ranking in addition to the adjusted.

Looks like Sony really does want Webb back for Spidey 2.

Given the main problem with the film was having to sit through the origin again already, I'm too bothered by that. The direction was fine and the action decently staged, and the leads were great so things can only get better. Or so one would think.

No more fucking crane driver escapades/"ain't Noo Yoikers great" bullshit though, please. Had enough of that to last a goddamn lifetime.