CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 280

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

I think it won't be a race.  Recall opens right around 20, potentially going under.

You might be right, Total Recall is kinda hard to get a grasp on. It could open around 20M like you said, and it could do 30-35M it's opening weekend.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie 

$400M is beyond locked.

Yeah, it should be between 340-350M by sunday. The people that's saying it's going to struggle to reach 400M are crazy man, TDKR should past 400M with it's eyes closed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bitches Leave 

Webb did a really good job so I'm glad he'll stay for part 2!

100% agreed.  

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeI 

 

FACT: Only two of James Cameron's last three feature films managed that feat

 

FACT: Those three encompass the last 18 years.

 

FACT: Referring to him as JC creepily emphasizes your worship of him

Fact his last two movies are the biggest ever.   He's only made 3 movies in 18 years.  JC is creepy?   Is PTA and QT creepy?   

Quote:

Originally Posted by dudalb 

Tax Write off on  advertising for a film would be the same as for the production costs of a film....but my point was that SONY saw no point in wasting money on a huge ad campaign for a film that looked as if it was going to bomb no matter what.

 

Most BO tracking has Total Recall opening in the high 20's.....not good for a 200 Million dolllar movie.

200 Million damn, i did'nt realize "Total Recall's" budget was that high. It's definantly going to have to do good buisness overseas to make a profit.

Who hasn't seen TDKR?  I was getting lukewarm on it, and started reading the post-release thread, and then lost all enthusiasm.

I haven't seen it.  Lost a little enthusiasm, but still plan on going.

I thought he was talking about John Carter!

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcnooj82 

I thought he was talking about John Carter!

I thought you were too!  This thread has turned into gibbering madness.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd 


Usually when people refer to someone as JC, they're talking about Jesus Christ. FYI.

And your point?   Same thing.

I'm not seeing DKR until it hits the IMAX here, which will probably be late August. I've got no enthusiasm for it, but I figure the IMAX should be nice.

TDKR remains squarely in the "I'll get to it when I get to it" section of my mind...which means maybe never.

Last call for August predictions. I just saw an ad for The Odd Life of Timothy Green. I don't know if the family members of the cast are going to see it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeI 

Last call for August predictions. I just saw an ad for The Odd Life of Timothy Green. I don't know if the family members of the cast are going to see it.

Family films sometimes bring weird surprises, but I thought it looked downright creepy.

Timothy Green has been sitting on a shelf for over a year now. Looks absolutely wretched.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wd40 

The objective reviews have convinced me that I can wait to rent it

The reviews that most match your preconceptions, you mean.

How can a review even claim to be objective? It's all subjective opinions, it's not the news.

Oh, what does that matter? The don't even care whether they see Batman or not! Rebels!

Wow, sorry I don't care for Nolan bat-movies all that much.  Didn't realize it was my duty to ignore personal discretion.  I guess I should go buy my ticket for the next showing of DKR right now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bitches Leave 

How can a review even claim to be objective? It's all subjective opinions, it's not the news.

It is my opinion that they were objective.  The writers themselves did not claim to be. I read many reviews that seemed to ignore that the movie has some serious issues.  I read many that blasted it.  And I read many that pointed out the good and the bad; I cared most about these.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew Merriweather 

The reviews that most match your preconceptions, you mean.

And what is wrong with that exactly? Does it offend you that I was indifferent to the movie and reviews have convinced me I can wait to see it? Isn't that how many people here gauge their desire to see a movie?  If I said that about The Watch would anyone have cared?  Isn't there an entire thread about people bitching about their preconceptions of a third Hobbit movie?

Point is, I wasn't interested in DKR much to begin with.  I didn't really care for the first or second much, so it isn't like my preconceptions are unfounded.  So, I read the reviews that didn't gush over it and they confirmed my personal suspicions. I will still see it.  I am just going to wait to rent it.

ETA: Sorry for getting the thread off topic again.  I would give my predictions for August, but I'd rather take a crack as the releases are closer rather than all at once.  So, I will still toss in a guess here and there anyway.

Framing the reviews that you agree with as "objective" is pretty intellectually dishonest, is all.
 

edit: removed.  Whatever.  Not gonna argue about why I am not going to see a movie in the theater.  Apparently I am being unreasonable. /passive aggressive.

I'm not making a big deal out of this. I think you have an idea of what the film is, and that's led to you seeing certain reviews as fair and balanced because they most match your preconceptions. I just don't think describing any review as "objective" is accurate.
 

Cool. Objective was clearly a poor choice of words.  I didn't mean it that literally.  Regardless, I don't want to derail this any more than I have.  As to avoid becoming this thread's BoatMan, I will bow out.  My apologies for going off-topic everyone.  As you were.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg Clark 

Timothy Green has been sitting on a shelf for over a year now. Looks absolutely wretched.

It's going to die on the vine.  Enthusiasm has wilted ever since the trailer premiered.  

Total  Recall is being panned by the critics, and most Box Office tracking has it opening in the mid 20's.Sony is probably going to have a Battleship size disaster on it's hands.

August predictions are up, kiddos. 

$2M bonus for every pick closest to actual will be reflected in adjusted total and adjusted rank.

I would be stunned if TOTAL RECALL won this weekend.
 

It would say way more about Batman than poor, already failed Total Recall.

No way in hell's multiple levels of fire does Total Recall open to more that $25 million. And I think even that's a stretch.

I just saw it, and trust me, the math wouldn't have been that different. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Harford 

Why would you spend 200$ million on a film you plan to release in the Death Zone of August? That's what I don't get. The film never would have had a chance to be a hit with that date, no matter how good it was. Had they run this against John Carter, the math would have been very different.

I would think it wouldn't matter when they released it.  

Eh, this sort of mediocre genre stuff seems to do better in Jan and Feb due to zero competition, but that probably translates to maybe an extra 10 mil tops.

The Dark Knight Rises - 36

Total Recall - 21

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - 18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Harford 


But since a studio is all about money, wouldn't they want to give the movie the best possible slot, even if they're not going to spend a lot of money on ads? It seems like they went into this from the get go with the intention to spend 200 million on an August release.

Agreed, but there could be a bunch of factors as to why this was released in August. It isn't always the case that studios get to pick and choose.

Wimpy Kid takes the weekend.

Why is Wimpy Kid going to make more than 1 ($22m) or 2 ($23.7m), exactly?  'Cause TDKR made $6.7m yesterday, which means the absolute floor for it is $30m.

I was also wondering why Sony dumped Recall in the first place.  It couldn't have been because they saw the movie and shit a brick, because they always throw muscle behind mediocre filler.  So what's changed?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ambler 

So what's changed?

JOHN CARTER and BATTLESHIP. I think we're going to see a lot of movies get this "cut our losses" treatment from now on.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dark Shape 

Why is Wimpy Kid going to make more than 1 ($22m) or 2 ($23.7m), exactly?  'Cause TDKR made $6.7m yesterday, which means the absolute floor for it is $30m.

Because my off-the-wall predictions are better then when I use reason and logic.

Tracking on kids' films is notoriously imprecise. The only reliable metric for Wimpy Kid is the performance of the previous Wimpy Kid movies, and they're right up there.