CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 282

I'm interested to see how Paranorman does--for some reason there's a slew of animated horror/comedies on the way (This, Frankenweenie and Hotel Transylvania--directed by Genndy Tartakovsky!) and I feel like this is the one most likely to reap whatever excitement there is for them, especially since the ads have been extremely appealing. Actually I've been finding it kind of hilarious how much more entertaining the Paranorman ads look than the Frankenweenie ones.
 

I think they both look pretty great actually. ParaNorman looks like a film I would've loved as a kid like those 80s Amblin movies. Frankenweenie looks to have the most heart out of the three. Hotel Transylvania could be fun but looks the lesser of the three in quality.

 

In terms of which ones will break out? Frankenweenie has the best release date out of the three. I have a feeling ParaNorman will get lost in August (should be an October release) but do really well on DVD. Hotel Transylvania might do the best because of CGI (the other two are stop-motion) and the bigger voice cast. It's also going for the more broad laughs while the other two have more atmosphere to them. 

 

Yeah, same with the Paranormal Movies.  They cost nothing and make a shit load of green.

Why didn't Damon return for more Bourne movies?

Simply, he didn't want to do it.  

 

He and Greengrass couldn't find a story that wasn't just rehashing the first three.

Yeah, it's indeed a little different. From the trailer it looks kinda cool and unique, so we'll see soon.

Reviews are pouring in for Legacy and they're pretty mixed. Mixed to negative. Expected butt-hurt word of mouth.

Films made cheaply as these are always the ones that will make the highest profit off their returns. The films that cost 150-200+million to make are already at a big disadvantage, they better kill at the box office to make a big profit.

They are indeed mixed so far, but with only about 10 reviews in it's early. Though i don't expect "Legacy" to reach quite the levels of previous "Bourne" films on RT, i expect the score to go up as more reviews come in, i would be a little suprised if it did'nt.

Man the studios behind these movies have to be laughing all the way to the bank.

So $35-45 Mill for THE BOURNE LEGACY this weekend?

I'm going low for BOURNE, 25 mil. This was a franchise that rode on Matt Damon's shoulders, and the fact that this has apparently no ending is going to hurt WOM. Plus, I just don't think people give a shit.

 

"Mysterious college professor Nasoj Enruob has a wife, a child, a home, and life is good...until he slips off the roof his home whilst putting up Christmas lights. Now he can't remember his family, he can't remember his adventures as an amnesiac super-spy, and he's asking all the wrong people all the right questions."

 

Bourne Again

Yeah, I think Sebastian has it right.

A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE is the best fourth Bourne movie you can get. Just picture Tom Stall as Matt Damon and the gangsters as secret agents.
 

 

God yes!  I hope this continues with similar films.  I love the fact that movies like this are actually making it to my area these days!

 

 

Goddammit, you're right!

Yeah, i agree. I've been thinking 40-50M all alone.

 

Tracking says $40M. Feels too high and you're right. The "little action, no ending, WHERE IS JASON BOURNE" factors are gonna butt-rape word of mouth. I'll go $30-$35M.

I hope it gets to at least $35. I'm starting to like Jeremy Renner after MI 4 and Avengers (couldn't really stand him in Hurt Locker and The Town and haven't seen him in anything else). It will be interesting to see if he's truly star material (which I kinda doubt) or forever a co-star. I wonder if Marvel is watching closely too, with a Hawkeye movie in the back of their mind?

 

I just hope it does better than the newest Bond, which looks utterly ridiculous and NOT a Bond movie.

Bourne Legacy - 32

The Campaign - 30

The Dark Knight Rises - 19

 

I'll be surprised if Marvel ever greenlights a Hawkeye, Black Widow, or Nick Fury spin-off.  Maybe a SHIELD movie containing all three, but I just can't see any of them sustaining an entire solo film.

 

And what about Skyfall looks un-Bondian?  Hell, it looks more Bond-like than the last two!

What was Legacy's budget?

125M

Well $30M isn't a disaster...but I'm sure the studio is dissapointed. 

It'll make that back easy WW.  

Making it back easy worldwide isn't a concern. JOHN CARTER and BATTLESHIP made their budgets back worldwide. They're looking for much bigger returns than that.
 

Bourne hasn't been that big overseas surprisingly, save for the last one.

You shoot Paddy Considine, you get everyone's attention.
 

Yeah, but they cost twice as much.  

Damn!  You are right.  Without looking I would of thought they would do well overseas.  Oh well then.  The bourne series might be dead.

I have to pop in every once in a while and reiterate this, but foreign receipts don't mean as much because the studios have different deals in the other territories than they have here, and they don't neccessarily see the same sort of profits. It's getting better than it was, and certainly a strong foreign box office is a good thing overall, but domestic box office is what really matters.

Very good point about Marvel Studios checking this film's performance out, i would'nt doubt it. If this film proves to be successful financally, Renner could prove to be a leading action star.  Remember this film is not expected to do "Supremacy" or "Ultimatium" numbers, it does'nt have to. It just needs to probally gross $140-$150M domestic and $400M worldwide, do that and Renner should be set. If Marvel does decide to do this, it will be a Hawkeye/Black Widow/Shield combo film most likely in my opinion.

I did'nt see your comment when i posted a few minutes ago, but i was saying the same thing. Hawkeye alone no, but with Black Widow and Shield possibly.

That does'nt sound too bad, 125M seems reasonable considering this version has a new lead and director. I don't think "Legacy" will have too much of a problem making a decent profit.

I can't believe this needs to be stated, but making its budget back is not the hallmark of a successful movie. People do not invest in movies so they make their budgets back. Studios are for-profit entities with investors that want, you know, returns on their investment.

Don't you think the studios would see 140 domestic total as a win for Renner, but as a possible failure for the franchise?  And I agree they are looking for profit, but there is something to be said if the movie makes it's budget back domestically, it can at least plan to make money from DVD sales.  I am sure the studios would always prefer BO profit, but home video has to amount for something.  I would be curious as to what the studios expect as a profit margin.

 

I depends on many factors. For instance, BATMAN BEGINS barely made back its budget domestically, but it had such good WOM and strong DVD sales that it was clear the franchise was heading back into an upswing after the disasterous BATMAN AND ROBIN. I don't think a poorly performing Damonless Bourne sequel with middling WOM is going to put a lot of heat on the franchise.

FIRST BOX OFFICE: ‘Bourne Legacy’ $46M-$48M, ‘The Campaign ‘$24M-$26M, ‘Hope Springs’ ‘$12M-$14M

 

Still seems too high for Bourne.

But Batman Begins was a good movie.  From the reviews on RT this isn't.

Don't take Rotten Tomatoes as the Gospel. Their rating system is flawed (Rated mixed reviews as good for Avatar for example).

Agreed about the Hawkeye/Black Widow/Shield thing...but even that might not ever happen if Renner isn't proven to be leading man material? As I assume he would be the main focus in a movie such as that? If not, it's just Avengers Lite.

As for Skyfall, it looks like a Mission Impossible film rather than a Bond one from the trailers...car chases, motorcycle chases, motorcycle on top of train chases, fighting on top of trains, explosions, blah blah blah. That's not the Bond I like and seems like a sell-out. Bond should focus more on the cerebral & ego and less on the physical shenanigans. But I'm probably just being silly because nothing will ever come close to the Connery Bond films in my mind.

If you buy tickets online to a movie, but then don't show up, does the studio still get the same numbers, or does it get back to them how many people actually showed up?

They don't care if you watch it. It's tickets sold. Still, that's almost certainly an irrelevant number, statistically.

 

I question the number of Bond films you've seen.

 

 

Skyfall looks like a Bergman film compared to some of the excesses of the Connery years. 

Yeah what the fuck? The Connery movies had all sorts of crazy shit going on. Lasers, hollow volcanoes with sliding doors, underwater scuba battles and whatnot. If anything, this new era Bond is toned down in that regard.

 

On a different note, how much should a 100 million dollar production (including marketing) rake in domestically to break-even?

Looks like I was wrong about Bourne Legacy. It's set to open 40M+ with a 15M Friday. I doubt it'll have much legs but this opening is definitely a success.

Happy for Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild. To Rome with Love is a disappointment though. It's no Midnight in Paris or even Vicky Cristina Barcelona.

That's awesome, thanks for that info!

Not to pile on dw1977 here, but who do you think inspired Mission: Impossible in the first place (both the movies and the tv series)?  A little clue, he's a british super spy who frequently has wonderful toys...