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CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 284

post #14151 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by felix View Post

Think Colin Farrell will get the blame for TOTAL RECALL flopping?

 

The guy wouldn't get blamed if he set fire to a nursery.  Hollywood loves him.

post #14152 of 16575

Even during his media darling/"Bad boy" days, Farrell's never been able to open a movie. Studios keep on insisting otherwise. This will (hopefully) put it to rest.

post #14153 of 16575

If Seven Psychopaths is anywhere near as good as In Bruges it should remind everyone that Farrell can be great on the right project. I suspect like Jude Law he'll be able to keep kicking along on the sidelines even if he never makes it as a mainstream leading man.

post #14154 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluelouboyle View Post

But REUNION seems to be universally loathed.

 

Reviews are about the same as the others, B+ CinemaScore, etc.  Just because the internet hates something doesn't mean it's universally hated.

post #14155 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

 

Reviews are about the same as the others, B+ CinemaScore, etc.  Just because the internet hates something doesn't mean it's universally hated.


You're using real life logic against internet logic... on the internet! C'mon, Shape, you're better than that!

post #14156 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post

You have been badly misinformed. Both Carter and Battleship lost a huge amount of money for their studios...and Carter got the head of Disney FIlms fired.

You are aware that the studios only get between 50 and 55% of the box office take, which means that a film has to take in TWICE it's budget to just break even, don't you?

 

I didn't say they made money, I said they made their initial production budget back. I'm well aware of how much over that a film has to make to break even. Try not to be such a patronising dick when you haven't even properly digested the post you're replying to.

post #14157 of 16575

John Carter is at $282 million worldwide on a production budget of $250

Battleship is at $302 million worldwide on a production budget of $209

 

No matter how you parse it, Andrew, it's hard to say they made their production budgets back. Unless their initial production budgets were significantly lower and they just went over budget. I suppose that's a fair reading.

post #14158 of 16575

Wait, now we're just assuming the quoted budget on any picture is way higher? We can only work with the numbers we're given.

 

And what's ridiculous about all this is that I was making the same points you're making - making your budget back on paper means absolutely nothing. I was responding to someone saying that BOURNE will handily make its budget back. Well, BATTLESHIP's gone almost $100million past its budget, and it's still a massive, studio-damaging flop. I feel like people don't actually read people's posts and digest the points being made before rushing to argue against them.
 

post #14159 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeI View Post

John Carter is at $282 million worldwide on a production budget of $250

Battleship is at $302 million worldwide on a production budget of $209

 

No matter how you parse it, Andrew, it's hard to say they made their production budgets back. Unless their initial production budgets were significantly lower and they just went over budget. I suppose that's a fair reading.

 

I'd guess Battleship has a shot at breaking even once video, tv rights, and the like are factored in. I don't think John Carter has a chance, unless those budget numbers are even more disconnected from reality than usual.

 

That being said, we still don't really know how much those streams actually make, and they never release those figures, so who knows. And, as others have pointed out, studios don't make movies hoping to break even.

post #14160 of 16575

So I guess Bourne did okay.

post #14161 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambler View Post

So I guess Bourne did okay.

 

Yeah, I miffed that one.

 

After cable rights, DVD, streaming, network TV etc, most movies make their budgets back. Even the biggest flops make a little profit, that's why movie studios are, you know, movie studios. But eeking out a tiny profit over the years is not the game the studios are in. 

post #14162 of 16575

I'm shocked at how well THE CAMPAIGN did. It'll be a rental for me, for sure, but I'm heartened that an original, small budget political farce can do relatively well. 

post #14163 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambler View Post

So I guess Bourne did okay.

Better then I expected.  

post #14164 of 16575

Damn, the new Ice Age has made 623M overseas and counting.   Man, that series is so freaking popular overseas.  

post #14165 of 16575

Looks like Rises has or is about to cross 800 mill world wide.

post #14166 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnotaur3 View Post

Looks like Rises has or is about to cross 800 mill world wide.

 

Well past it.

post #14167 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastian OB View Post

For instance, BATMAN BEGINS barely made back its budget domestically, but it had such good WOM and strong DVD sales that it was clear the franchise was heading back into an upswing after the disasterous BATMAN AND ROBIN.

 

Batman Begins made $55 million beyond its budget stateside.  I wouldn't call that barely.  That said, you are absolutely correct about them taking it the right way and realizing that was a "success" for them as a follow-up to the shitstorm of B&R and a great new start for the franchise.

 

As for Bourne, I can guarantee you that they will be driving a dumptruck full of dough into Damon's driveway when the time comes to do Bourne 5.  Hell, Frank Marshall has already hinted repeatedly that he wants the (potential) next one to be a team-up between Damon & Renner.  The only way they won't actually do that is if this has excellent legs.  The real question is whether or not they will push forward with another one if Damon turns them down again?

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post

You have been badly misinformed. Both Carter and Battleship lost a huge amount of money for their studios...and Carter got the head of Disney FIlms fired.

 

The funny thing about that is that he wasn't the one who greenlit it.  From what I can tell, he was canned mostly for how the studio handled its marketing and release (i.e. half-assing it until about a week or two before release).  I doubt it would have been a hit, but I suspect it wouldn't have been as embarrassing had they put more effort (or any) into promoting it and promoting it properly.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul C View Post

If Seven Psychopaths is anywhere near as good as In Bruges it should remind everyone that Farrell can be great on the right project. I suspect like Jude Law he'll be able to keep kicking along on the sidelines even if he never makes it as a mainstream leading man.

 

Righto.  Farrell always lands on his feet.  He did after his first failed attempt at A-list super-stardom a decade ago and he will again here.  Hell, even Jude Law finally landed a supporting role in an on-going franchise.

post #14168 of 16575

I have to wonder exactly how much that shooting actually HAS hindered the BO take for TDKR?  I know or know of a LOT of people that are flatout refusing to see it in theaters because of the Aurora shooting.

post #14169 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew Merriweather View Post

Wait, now we're just assuming the quoted budget on any picture is way higher? We can only work with the numbers we're given.

And what's ridiculous about all this is that I was making the same points you're making - making your budget back on paper means absolutely nothing. I was responding to someone saying that BOURNE will handily make its budget back. Well, BATTLESHIP's gone almost $100million past its budget, and it's still a massive, studio-damaging flop. I feel like people don't actually read people's posts and digest the points being made before rushing to argue against them.

 

I do not think that is the problem. The problem is the inherent vagueness of the phrase "made its budget back." some interpret this as gross surpassing production budget, some as studio's take surpassing production budget, some include marketing and distribution. The language is muddled.
post #14170 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by S.D. Bob Plissken View Post

I have to wonder exactly how much that shooting actually HAS hindered the BO take for TDKR?  I know or know of a LOT of people that are flatout refusing to see it in theaters because of the Aurora shooting.

 

I'd say a good $60-$80M domestic.

post #14171 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by cccc View Post

Damn, the new Ice Age has made 623M overseas and counting.   Man, that series is so freaking popular overseas.  

Yeah Ice Age's overseas numbers are absoluely insane and would be the story of the year overseas if not for "The Avengers". The last Ice Age film made 690 million overseas i believe, those films are indeed wildly popular overseas.  Obviously the only film left this year that could possibly take in more overseas is "The Hobbit", it's a trip that "Ice Age" will have outgossed TDKR, TASM,"Hunger Games" and "Brave" overseas this year.

post #14172 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by orlando View Post

Yeah Ice Age's overseas numbers are absoluely insane and would be the story of the year overseas if not for "The Avengers". The last Ice Age film made 690 million overseas i believe, those films are indeed wildly popular overseas.  Obviously the only film left this year that could possibly take in more overseas is "The Hobbit", it's a trip that "Ice Age" will have outgossed TDKR, TASM,"Hunger Games" and "Brave" overseas this year.

 

I wonder why it's so popular?   I don't get it?

post #14173 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by cccc View Post

 

I wonder why it's so popular?   I don't get it?

 

400

post #14174 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew Merriweather View Post

 

I didn't say they made money, I said they made their initial production budget back. I'm well aware of how much over that a film has to make to break even. Try not to be such a patronising dick when you haven't even properly digested the post you're replying to.

But,but...they didn't make their production budgets back, that was his point.  

 

John Carter, with a budget of $250, would need to have made $500 (minimum) in box office to make the budget back. It did $283.

 

Battleship, with a budget of $209, would need to have made $420 (minimum) in box office to make the budget back. It did $303.

 

With Battleship, it's feasible that it could make it back on DVD, TV, etc. But that's not what a studio wants to do - they want to make MORE than the budget.  John Carter is pretty much SOL. My mind is still boggled that someone, somewhere made the decision to pour $250 million into that movie and not even call it "John Carter of Mars"...

post #14175 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by orlando View Post

Yeah Ice Age's overseas numbers are absoluely insane and would be the story of the year overseas if not for "The Avengers". The last Ice Age film made 690 million overseas i believe, those films are indeed wildly popular overseas.  Obviously the only film left this year that could possibly take in more overseas is "The Hobbit", it's a trip that "Ice Age" will have outgossed TDKR, TASM,"Hunger Games" and "Brave" overseas this year.


The Hobbit is gonna take everything out.

post #14176 of 16575

I can see the Hobbit doing very well too.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcnooj82 View Post

I hope all the blame goes onto Wiseman.  And Jessica Biel.

 

Farrell... I just hope he goes back to making more interesting films.  But if SONY really wants a scapegoat, Farrell's an easy target.  He's already been in some big bombs during the star-making phase of his career.

 

And this is where I imagine a dejected Cate Beckindsale arriving at my door on a rainy night...

 

What?  Ok fine, I imagine that all the time.

post #14177 of 16575

The Hobbit is the only other release locked for $1 billion. Doubt it topples Avengers worldwide or even Dark Knight Rises domestic.

post #14178 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBananaGrabber View Post

And this is where I imagine a dejected Cate Beckindsale arriving at my door on a rainy night...

 

What?  Ok fine, I imagine that all the time.

 

Kate Beckinsale, no probably not. But Cate Beckindsale you might actually have a shot at.

post #14179 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by cccc View Post

Damn, the new Ice Age has made 623M overseas and counting.   Man, that series is so freaking popular overseas.  

 

Why do you think that DreamWorks Animation signed a deal and is building a facility in China for example?

post #14180 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post

The Hobbit is the only other release locked for $1 billion. Doubt it topples Avengers worldwide or even Dark Knight Rises domestic.

 

Hobbit could very well do $1 billion+ outside the States.  Return of the King made $700m+ nearly a decade ago, before the overseas explosion.  And, you know, 3D.

post #14181 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by User_32 View Post

 

Kate Beckinsale, no probably not. But Cate Beckindsale you might actually have a shot at.

 

700

 

She ain't much to look at but she's got spirit, she does!

post #14182 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Shape View Post

 

Hobbit could very well do $1 billion+ outside the States.  Return of the King made $700m+ nearly a decade ago, before the overseas explosion.  And, you know, 3D.

 

True. But... I don't think its going to be that hot stateside. Even with the 3D bump, have a feeling this will be closer to Fellowship of the Ring. Still a huge gross though.

post #14183 of 16575

Quote:

Originally Posted by Art Decade View Post

 

700

 

She ain't much to look at but she's got spirit, she does!

 

Cate, Kate, either's fine, I'm not proud.

post #14184 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by dw1977 View Post

But,but...they didn't make their production budgets back, that was his point.  

 

John Carter, with a budget of $250, would need to have made $500 (minimum) in box office to make the budget back. It did $283.

 

Battleship, with a budget of $209, would need to have made $420 (minimum) in box office to make the budget back. It did $303.

 

With Battleship, it's feasible that it could make it back on DVD, TV, etc. But that's not what a studio wants to do - they want to make MORE than the budget.  John Carter is pretty much SOL. My mind is still boggled that someone, somewhere made the decision to pour $250 million into that movie and not even call it "John Carter of Mars"...

 

I'm going to have an aneurysm I swear.

 

The initial post was "BOURNE's budget is $125million? It'll easily make that back". My response was that making the production budget back means nothing, as you have to make a lot more to make a serious profit. I AM MAKING THE SAME POINT AS YOU PEOPLE.

post #14185 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew Merriweather View Post

 

I didn't say they made money, I said they made their initial production budget back. I'm well aware of how much over that a film has to make to break even. Try not to be such a patronising dick when you haven't even properly digested the post you're replying to.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew Merriweather View Post

I'm going to have an aneurysm I swear.

 

The initial post was "BOURNE's budget is $125million? It'll easily make that back". My response was that making the production budget back means nothing, as you have to make a lot more to make a serious profit. I AM MAKING THE SAME POINT AS YOU PEOPLE.

 

But they haven't made their initial production budgets back, depending on your meaning of the term. Unless you're comparing their gross revenues with only the production aspects of their budgets. Those who you've been yelling at (pretty sure myself included) have not been doing that. We've been lopping 50% off their grosses because of the end that goes to the theaters. And the 50% is just a thumbnail because the theater cuts in different countries, and as the run goes on, change.

 

Like I said, the phrase "made its budget back" is very vague.

 

I don't want you to have an aneurysm unless it's the very rare kind that gifts its victim with clarity of speech and no other discernible side effects.

post #14186 of 16575

Holy shit when the first post references THE INITIAL PRODUCTION BUDGET OF THE FILM IN QUESTION it should be abundantly clear what budget figure I am addressing in my reply. When someone says "Bourne cost £125million, it'll easily make that back", and I say "making your initial budget back means nothing, here's some examples", how much clearer do I have to be?

 

And the term "initial production budget", in any conversation anyone has ever had about film, doesn't include P&A, prints, and other add-ons, and obviously doesn't account for the cut taken by exhibitors. The phrase "made its budget back" isn't vague in the slightest, especially in the discussion that spawned this eye-melting runaround. You can make your budget back without making a dime of profit, as was my original point!

post #14187 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew Merriweather View Post

 

And the term "initial production budget", in any conversation anyone has ever had about film, doesn't include P&A, prints, and other add-ons, and obviously doesn't account for the cut taken by exhibitors. The phrase "made its budget back" isn't vague in the slightest, especially in the discussion that spawned this eye-melting runaround. You can make your budget back without making a dime of profit, as was my original point!

 

I deleted that first part because, again, NO ONE IS DISAGREEING WITH YOU ON THAT.

 

The phrase "made its budget back" is INCREDIBLY VAGUE. I will highlight the word for you that makes it so: back. (ETA: also: made)


Edited by MikeI - 8/14/12 at 6:29am
post #14188 of 16575

JOHN CARTER's production budget is $200million or so. It has made this amount in box office returns. It had not made enough to turn a profit, however, due to the P&A budget, the prints, the exhibitors' cuts, and so on. There is nothing vague about this sentence, or any of the terms contained within. Or any other bloody post I've made in this thread, contrary to popular belief.

post #14189 of 16575

Though the studios might fudge it for tax purposes, "production" is intended to mean "production of the film". Therefor, a "production budget" should be in reference to the amount of money it took to produce the movie. Not advertising, distribution, etc. Ergo, Andrew is right.

post #14190 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post

The Hobbit is the only other release locked for $1 billion. Doubt it topples Avengers worldwide or even Dark Knight Rises domestic.

 

Has any other year seen three 1 billion dollar releases?

post #14191 of 16575
Quit flirting, you two.
post #14192 of 16575

Think TE2 can make $35 to $40 Million this weekend?

post #14193 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by felix View Post

Think TE2 can make $35 to $40 Million this weekend?

 

I think so. People seem to love the trailers and there's goodwill towards it coming off of the first film for some inexplicable reason. 

post #14194 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew Merriweather View Post

JOHN CARTER's production budget is $200million or so. It has made this amount in box office returns. It had not made enough to turn a profit, however, due to the P&A budget, the prints, the exhibitors' cuts, and so on. There is nothing vague about this sentence, or any of the terms contained within. Or any other bloody post I've made in this thread, contrary to popular belief.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastian OB View Post

Though the studios might fudge it for tax purposes, "production" is intended to mean "production of the film". Therefor, a "production budget" should be in reference to the amount of money it took to produce the movie. Not advertising, distribution, etc. Ergo, Andrew is right.

 

Made its production budget back at the box office = vague.

Earned (revenue equivalent to) its production budget at the box office = not vague.

 

Accounting jargon is being used in the same sentence as regular old English and you just can't do that. You're using a shorthand that adds a level of ambiguity.

post #14195 of 16575

A level of ambiguity for people with no functional reading ability, perhaps. Anyone who read my initial post and came away thinking that I was claiming JOHN CARTER made a profit of $200million should loosen their necktie.

 

This is possibly the worst semantics argument I've come across on the boards. We've gone from "the term production budget is vague" to "saying it made its budget back is confusing".

post #14196 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew Merriweather View Post

This is possibly the worst semantics argument I've come across on the boards. We've gone from "the term production budget is vague" to "saying it made its budget back is confusing".

 

Jesus, who said "the term production budget is vague?" It's always been about the "making it back" part... because that is not what you actually mean.

 

What you mean is that the gross box office receipts are greater than the production expenses. I know that's what you actually mean now. I get it. No one is accusing you of otherwise.

 

And we all acknowledge that it is a meaningless metric that ignores tremendous expenses in marketing and distribution and the potentially greatest expense (depending on the success of the film)* in the percentage that goes to the theaters screening the films. No one is arguing that either. It seems to be the centerpiece of your point.

 

We can also, probably, agree that studios want to do more than recuperate all of those expenses. That they want to demonstrate enough profit to send their stock prices up so that they can swim in the money earned from their stock options.

 

I agreed with your first post. I just didn't think it went far enough. It seemed to be giving those two bombs credit for something they had not done: making their production budgets back. I knew you meant they hadn't recuperated all of their expenses (and certainly that they weren't profitable). But because of the vagaries of English and the inherent muddiness of big budget accounting, I pointed out that no, the studios probably had not seen enough revenue from the box office stream to cover their production expenses (this of course precludes their other revenue streams like licensing and product placement). 

 

For that, you've insulted my intelligence and reading comprehension a few times. It's the internet. I bear you no ill will.

post #14197 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambler View Post

Has any other year seen three 1 billion dollar releases?

 

2011 had Deathly Hallows Part II, Transformers 3 and Pirates 4.

post #14198 of 16575

Agh, it might just be the way of things now.

post #14199 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post

 

2011 had Deathly Hallows Part II, Transformers 3 and Pirates 4.

 

PIRATES 4 made a billion dollars???  Jesus wept.

post #14200 of 16575
Quote:
Originally Posted by cccc View Post

 

I wonder why it's so popular?   I don't get it?

Really, i ask myself that same question.

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