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CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 314

post #15651 of 23241

Question: Do the Kids Today still identify the William Tell Overture as the Lone Ranger Theme?

 

I feel that the character has largely fallen off the pop-culture map.

post #15652 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead View Post

Question: Do the Kids Today still identify the William Tell Overture as the Lone Ranger Theme?

 

I suspect most kids today would answer that: Do I identify the what with who?

post #15653 of 23241

That has been my experience with the Kids Today in my orbit.

post #15654 of 23241

One hit movie can change all that around. Kids today didn't know about Captain Kirk and Spock either until J J Abram's blockbuster. 

post #15655 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead View Post

That has been my experience with the Kids Today in my orbit.

 

They really need to get off our lawns.

post #15656 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead View Post

Question: Do the Kids Today still identify the William Tell Overture as the Lone Ranger Theme?

I feel that the character has largely fallen off the pop-culture map.

I know plenty of kis and twenty-something's who have never seen Raiders of the Lost Ark, and Indy is a much more prominent figure in pop culture than Lone Ranger. This movie is going to need a lot more than nostalgia to make bank.
post #15657 of 23241
This weekend looks like one big nothing. HANSEL AND GRETEL looks terrible (and reportedly terrible is an understatement) and PARKER looks like a throwaway Statham actioner. How are they tracking?
post #15658 of 23241

Hansel and Gretel use breadcrumbs.

post #15659 of 23241

Box office is pretty dead until A Good Day to Die Hard opens (the first Die Hard not to open sometime during summer). Live Free or Die Hard opened to 33 M so I assume this'll open around there.

post #15660 of 23241

What the hell is Movie 43?  I mean, I know what it is, but I still don't think I understand?

post #15661 of 23241

A Kentucky Fried Fuck You to cinemagoers.

post #15662 of 23241

That bad, huh? I was hoping there would at least some decent laughs in it.

post #15663 of 23241
Parker will do Statham numbers which is like 7to 12 million, and it'll leave the rest of us scratching our heads as to why Statham is still an active leading man.
post #15664 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by UrchineSLICE View Post

Parker will do Statham numbers which is like 7to 12 million, and it'll leave the rest of us scratching our heads as to why Statham is still an active leading man.

 

7-12 million is better than Schwarzenegger numbers, at this point.

post #15665 of 23241

I have a weird feeling Hansel and Gretel will do okay.  It looks like the right kind of horrible.  Abraham Lincoln:Vampire Hunter numbers maybe?

post #15666 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ben Grimm View Post

 

7-12 million is better than Schwarzenegger numbers, at this point.

 

Yeah but when Schwarzenegger was at Statham's point in his career, he just released True Lies. Statham will be hoping to have Last Stand Schwarzenegger numbers when he's 65 and not DTV numbers.

post #15667 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by HarleyQuinn22 View Post

I know plenty of kis and twenty-something's who have never seen Raiders of the Lost Ark, and Indy is a much more prominent figure in pop culture than Lone Ranger. This movie is going to need a lot more than nostalgia to make bank.

 

Fuck you with your smarts and common sense!

post #15668 of 23241

Which is what the marketing has been doing so far as none of the trailers/posters are selling it on nostalgia for babyboomers. It's being sold as a Pirates of the Caribbean Western which is probably the smart way of doing it.

post #15669 of 23241
Another 89% drop for TEXAS CHAINSAW 3D, which has been a fun film to follow. It needs to somehow manage another $800k in order to match FRIDAY THE 13TH 09's ridiculously terrible 1.6x OW-to-domestic-gross multiplier.
post #15670 of 23241

SKYFALL is now the 8th Top Grossing film worldwide.

post #15671 of 23241

Also Pi crossed £100m US and will probably finish $550m worldwide, which is pretty good. The Hobbit should hit $300m in the states eventually but 1 billion worldwide's probably not happening unless it blows up in China or something.

post #15672 of 23241

Read somewhere that DC is watching the MAN OF STEEL grosses closely, as to whether to proceed with JUSTICE LEAGUE.

 

So whats the magic number they're looking for here. $800-900 Million worldwide? 1 Billion seems like a stretch to me.

post #15673 of 23241

They'd be doing well to get anywhere near $800m worldwide given that the last Superman did less than half of that.

 

Must be frustrating to be in charge of the DC movies. They can see an Avengers-sized pot o' gold somewhere at the end of the Justice League rainbow but they just don't know how to get to it. The timing's all wrong - Nolanbats is over, Green Lantern's a punchline, Superman's a big question mark.

post #15674 of 23241

I think MAN OF STEEL will be lucky to hit the $700 Million mark.

 

As for the Marvel "Phase 2" films, the usual $450-$550 Million worldwide for the sequels?

post #15675 of 23241
I bet the new Iron Man hits 700 at least. That ones the victory lap.
post #15676 of 23241

Yeah, there is no way that it and the other Marvel sequels don't benefit from THE AVENGERS.  If IRON MAN 3 is as good as it should be with Shane Black's involvement, it should play like gangbusters. 

 

I just wish Joe Johnston was directing CAPTAIN AMERICA 2.  He nailed the first one.

post #15677 of 23241

Iron Man 3 is going to get a boost from the Super Bowl advertisement too.


Edited by MrSaxon - 1/30/13 at 12:01pm
post #15678 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by felix View Post

I think MAN OF STEEL will be lucky to hit the $700 Million mark.

 

As for the Marvel "Phase 2" films, the usual $450-$550 Million worldwide for the sequels?

I agree and i disagree with you. I think a realistic number for MAN OF STEEL performing well is 250m domestic and 600-650 worldwide. But 450-550m worldwide for the 'Phase 2' sequels, "Iron Man 3" & "Thor TDW" are both going to top that easily, and i know you're certainly not lumping "Avengers 2" in that category which would be absolutely insane thinking on your part.

post #15679 of 23241

I think "Iron Man 3" has a shot a reaching 1 billion worldwide. It's the biggest solo franchise for Marvel Studios coming off the outrageous success of "The Avengers", if the film is as good as it looks it's going to be the biggest hit yet in the 'Iron Man' series.

post #15680 of 23241

I think that IRON MAN 3 has a shot at hitting THE AVENGERS numbers if the word is decent on it.  Yes, I'll go there.

post #15681 of 23241

That's quite a high stake you're placing there, Judas. I think Iron Man 3 will do well but I don't think it'll capture the zeitgeist in the same way that The Avengers did.

post #15682 of 23241

Iron Man 3 would have to basically double IM2's total, right?  Yeah, that's not gonna happen.  Avengers or no Avengers.

post #15683 of 23241

I think that people are really, really wanting a sequel to THE AVENGERS yesterday, and IRON MAN 3 is going to be the closest thing that they're going to get for a long time.  If the movie is at least 'good', it's gonna do huge numbers.  It won't beat THE AVENGERS, but I betcha it comes within spitting distance of it and comes in at the #4 all time position.

post #15684 of 23241

By the same token, though, IM2 was lousy and I think people felt it--part of the reason it did well was that it came in a particularly crappy early summer season. If there'd been no Avengers last year I don't think people would be particularly excited for this one. Not that it would bomb, of course, but I think Avengers really revved up interest in the character.

 

I remain convinced that Thor 2 is going to be the surprising hit. Between the Avengers buzz and the fact that this looks way cooler and more epic, I think people are pretty jazzed. The one I'm not 100% sure will benefit is Captain America 2, which is a shame. Cap really needs to be in the foreground of Avengers 2, and I feel like his role was undermined in the first movie because his movie was the one that kind of sputtered and Marvel was leery of selling to foreign markets, etc. Having another so-so entry under his belt can't help that.

post #15685 of 23241

As a movie Captain America was better than Thor but I think people like the Thor character better than Captain America which is why the sequel might gross more than Cap. It's the problem Man of Steel will be facing, today audiences like to cheer the "complicated" bad boy hero ie. Iron Man, Batman and not the "bland" perfect hero.

 

But neither Thor or Captain America sequels will even come close to Iron Man 3 for the simple reason of Robert Downey Jr as Tony Stark. He's one of the big reasons for that gigantic gross of Avengers and why Iron Man 2, even as a lesser movie, grossed just as much as the first film. 

 

Man of Steel still has potential for a big worldwide gross. The last Superman movie grossed under 200 M overseas but that was in 2006. Batman Begins grossed even less than that in 2005 but then Dark Knight exploded with over 450 M overseas. Man of Steel has the potential to be The Dark Knight of Superman.

post #15686 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by User_32 View Post

As a movie Captain America was better than Thor but I think people like the Thor character better than Captain America which is why the sequel might gross more than Cap. It's the problem Man of Steel will be facing, today audiences like to cheer the "complicated" bad boy hero ie. Iron Man, Batman and not the "bland" perfect hero.

 

Didn't the success of Captain America disprove that? And without taking the 'darker' tone apparently favored by Man of Steel?

post #15687 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by User_32 View Post

 Man of Steel has the potential to be The Dark Knight of Superman.

 

They're certainly going to market it as such. I think the problem might be that Superman is no one's favorite hero anymore. I guess if Man of Steel is great, they could potentially change that.

 

I think that's gonna be tough though. More of a liability than Snyder or Cavill is that the character no longer holds the cultural cachet or relevance he used to. I think it's more than popular trends too. For starters, he's in many ways the most stripped down of superheroes. He's super, and he's a man, sort of. His power is he has every power. That's effective when you're introducing the concept of superheroes, but I think we all more or less get their deal at this point. The components of his character are kind of passe too. His costume is somehow old fashioned in a way his contemporaries' costumes aren't, the Daily Planet is a print newspaper, for hell's sake, and frankly, we're more likely to gravitate towards a smart, self possessed, antiheroic Lex Luthor at this point. 

 

Plus, his big weakness isn't a humanizing character flaw, it's a magic rock that makes him tired.

 

I think for this to really work, it has to be a fairly radical reinterpretation of the character and what he can be about. Far more so than Batman required. The ads don't suggest that so much as the old stuff with a modern aesthetic. And of course, it also has to be very good. I don't think it will bomb, but I'd be surprised if it hit 300. As I've seen articulated here, I kind of hope it makes 230 or so and Warners just has no idea what to do next.

post #15688 of 23241

Man of Steel may have the potential to be The Dark Knight of Superman, but that doesn't mean that it should.

 

Why must they keep making Superman movies so hapless, morose, and boring lately?

 

I know the original post is about box office potential, but if they go for The Dark Knight flavor with Superman, I don't see it making Dark Knight money.
 

post #15689 of 23241

Man Of Steel is the first Superman movie I'm willing to see at the cinema (I was too young when the Christopher Reeve movies appeared in the theater) so they must doing something right. I like the redesign of his costume and I'm also looking forward to an exploration of the character himself, and why he does what he does. It also appears to feature action scenes that don't simply involve Superman lifting larger things as the movie progresses. Unless the reviews are terrible, it more than likely has my money.

post #15690 of 23241

It has mine too, but I don't count. I've seen Mama and The Last Stand. I'm sure it will make 150 or so simply by being a big superhero-shaped summer movie-thing, but does that character resonate in the general public anymore? More than, say, Thor?

post #15691 of 23241

MrSaxon, I get a...Starman vibe from this...Super...Man film!  He is an alien hunted by the military, on the run with his gal pal, and he performs...Super Heroics, whilist trying to convince the world he is a hero.  I hope it is not a...Dour film.  I...Loved the first...2 Superman films!

post #15692 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd View Post

I'm sure it will make 150 or so simply by being a big superhero-shaped summer movie-thing, but does that character resonate in the general public anymore? More than, say, Thor?

 

It will make more than Thor or Cap. Adjusted for inflation, Superman Returns still made 237 M domestically. Superman is clearly not as popular as he was (adjusted for inflation, the original Superman made 446 M domestically) but he can still outgross most other superhero franchises. I think Man of Steel also has the potential to breakout overseas like Batman did recently. 

post #15693 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjen Rudd View Post

 


 

I think for this to really work, it has to be a fairly radical reinterpretation of the character and what he can be about. Far more so than Batman required. The ads don't suggest that so much as the old stuff with a modern aesthetic. And of course, it also has to be very good. I don't think it will bomb, but I'd be surprised if it hit 300. As I've seen articulated here, I kind of hope it makes 230 or so and Warners just has no idea what to do next.

 

 

I want to agree with this, yet the recent (last few years) All Star Superman and other comics have effectivelly revamped the classic character for the 21st Century. I always thought Superman was a boring character (though I liked the first two Reeves films. But then again, they came out when there was a paucity of Super Hero movies) until seeing how good writers and artists got hold of him.

post #15694 of 23241

I'm really looking forward to Thor 2, but it's my favorite of the non Avengers Marvel movies. Iron Man 3 is look good, but I'm not really excited about it. I'll see Man of Steel no matter what, but I really hope it's at least okay.  

post #15695 of 23241

Untitled, The...THORoughly Awesome sequel to Odin's THUNDERous Son is...4th on my list of 2013 films.  G.I. Joe Retaliation, The Wolverine and Iron Man 3 are the only ones I want to see more.

post #15696 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cylon Baby View Post

 

 

I want to agree with this, yet the recent (last few years) All Star Superman and other comics have effectivelly revamped the classic character for the 21st Century. I always thought Superman was a boring character (though I liked the first two Reeves films. But then again, they came out when there was a paucity of Super Hero movies) until seeing how good writers and artists got hold of him.

 

I do think it's significant that the only memorable or interesting Superman comic stories I've read have been 'the last' Superman stories, about how the story ends. But I'm not really talking about us; the internet will see Man of Steel. I do think it will test the character with the vox populi in a way it may not withstand.

post #15697 of 23241

The world has moved on from Superman. A great writer can write a great Superman story -- I'm sure Grant Morrrison could write a really cracking Mickey Mouse story as well. That doesn't mean anyone will care. ALL-STAR SUPERMAN has been touted by comics readers as the definitive Superman story of the last 10 years. You know who cares about it? Comics fans. That's it. I expect MAN OF STEEL to pull and INCREDIBLE HULK at the box office in that it doesn't do much better than the "failure" film that preceeded it.

 

What's the predictions on OZ THE GREAT AND POWERFUL? Will it suffer the stigma of ALICE IN WONDERLAND sucking or will it benefit from that film's popularity? Does anyone care about OZ anymore? I'm onboard for the Raimi factor, but I don't sense too much anticipation for this.

post #15698 of 23241

post #15699 of 23241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sebastian OB View Post

ALL-STAR SUPERMAN has been touted by comics readers as the definitive Superman story of the last 10 years. You know who cares about it? Comics fans. That's it.

 

Sad but true. See also Mark Waid's Birthright, which would make a fantastic Superman movie.

post #15700 of 23241

They probably would do better if they'd waited longer between Superman films.  SUPERMAN RETURNS had a ton of problems (stalking, Superbabies, another fucking real estate plot) , but how much of it's budget was spent on aborted versions in the past?  If it had cost 100 million, we WOULD have gotten a direct sequel based on how much it made world wide.  It's funny how Singer is such a good choice for an X-Men film, but so, so wrong for Supes.

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