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CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 7

post #301 of 17415
6/17/07 at 4:47am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre Dellamorte
I thought Surf's Up would do well because it's a kids movie, and people didn't much care for The Third while word was Surf was rather good. Perhaps the penguin factor worked against.
It is good. It actually felt more like a surfing movie than a kid's movie. A great surfing movie.
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post #302 of 17415
6/17/07 at 9:44pm
The 6/17/07 Wrap:

http://www.chud.com/index.php?type=news&id=10736
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post #303 of 17415
6/17/07 at 10:06pm
I'm pretty sure that should say "Le Film," "Le Gross", and so on. I believe that's what Strunk & White have to say on the matter.

So what's the latest on the "let's bump Knocked Up from screens to make room for Evan Almighty" situation? Is it happening? Also, how did the Ratatouille sneaks go? What's the projection for the opening weekend? What colour is the sky? What of donuts? What?
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post #304 of 17415
6/17/07 at 10:15pm
Honestly, my connections at Universal are soured, so I couldn't call and be all "What's up? How you doing? So, Knocked Up, are you going to fuck it?" so we'll see what happens next weekend. But 4th of July will be the telling-est weekend.
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post #305 of 17415
6/17/07 at 10:33pm
You totally should ask them that. Serves 'em right!
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post #306 of 17415
6/21/07 at 3:11pm
Quote:
A Mighty Oscar Bid
Ha ha.
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post #307 of 17415
6/21/07 at 4:07pm
Sorry, I'm a bit lazy, but what was the budget for Shrek-3rd?

$300 Mil - That's a lot of coke!
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post #308 of 17415
6/21/07 at 4:37pm
I call the weekend remaining "Fantastic"- "Evan" at $20 mil.
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post #309 of 17415
6/21/07 at 4:40pm
Yeah...I find it hard to believe Evan pulling in $30 million+ this weekend. But I could be wrong!
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post #310 of 17415
6/21/07 at 8:37pm
$37 for Evan? That seems drasticaly low, to me. I think $55 +.

Family movie. If Bruce could pull the numbers it did opening weekend ($68), and it was a piece of shit, then this should do equally as well, considering the star, the PG rating, the religious aspect, and the marketing campaign that started back in... when was that? December 1999?
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post #311 of 17415
6/23/07 at 12:28pm
Friday:

Evan Almighty 11.1
1408 7.5
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer 6.1
Ocean's Thirteen 3.5
Knocked Up 3.4
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post #312 of 17415
6/23/07 at 3:33pm
Interesting. Len Klady has that EVAN estimate at 10.2. Expect Universal to seriously fudge these numbers for a $40 million weekend (if business picks up today and, especially, Sunday, which it should). And then expect a Weinstein-ian correction when the actuals hit on Monday.

FF2 is off 72%? Shit, maybe I should go to church tomorrow.
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post #313 of 17415
6/23/07 at 3:50pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarence Beaks
FF2 is off 72%? Shit, maybe I should go to church tomorrow.
Well, it's entirely expected. If you look at the dailies, FF2's Wednesday was lower than the first film's Thursday. It's been trailing behind for a few days.
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post #314 of 17415
6/23/07 at 4:01pm
Not entirely. Everyone thought it would drop a good deal, but no one had it pulling a HULK. The least charitable estimates still had it doing $25 million this weekend (in lieu of serious competition). It'll recover a little today and probably do close to $20 million, but Fox/Rothman still took it in the shorts on this one. And that makes me very happy.
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post #315 of 17415
6/23/07 at 4:25pm
Fox/Rothman are going to take it in the shorts again next weekend, even with a Wednesday opening. It's a great month to not work at Fox.
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post #316 of 17415
6/23/07 at 4:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarence Beaks
Not entirely. Everyone thought it would drop a good deal, but no one had it pulling a HULK. The least charitable estimates still had it doing $25 million this weekend (in lieu of serious competition). It'll recover a little today and probably do close to $20 million, but Fox/Rothman still took it in the shorts on this one. And that makes me very happy.
Maybe a few analysts had it doing $25 million, but I don't understand why. Its dailies were right in line with the original's, just a bit lower, so it went hand in hand that the weekend would do the same, especially with direct competition in the form of PG-rated Evan Almighty.
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post #317 of 17415
6/23/07 at 4:58pm
I had it doing 25, but that's probably high.

Not me, though. Unless being high on life counts. Or heroin.
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post #318 of 17415
6/24/07 at 8:13pm
Wash yo' butt!

http://www.chud.com/index.php?type=news&id=10831
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post #319 of 17415
6/24/07 at 8:15pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Russ Fischer
Fox/Rothman are going to take it in the shorts again next weekend, even with a Wednesday opening. It's a great month to not work at Fox.
And from what is happening with Evan Almighty, it is just as great not to have a job in The Black Tower either.
In fact, FF will probably turn a profit when all is said and done.Not a big one,but at least Fox will not lose money.
But Univeral is gonna drop a huge amount with Evan.
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post #320 of 17415
6/24/07 at 8:22pm
Reuters sez: "EVAN ALMIGHTY Cursed at Box Office".

The AP counters: "EVAN Shows Might with $32.1 Million"!
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post #321 of 17415
6/24/07 at 8:34pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by dudalb
And from what is happening with Evan Almighty, it is just as great not to have a job in The Black Tower either.
In fact, FF will probably turn a profit when all is said and done.Not a big one,but at least Fox will not lose money.
But Univeral is gonna drop a huge amount with Evan.
They're not happy this weekend, but KNOCKED UP is a massive profit maker whereas FF:RoTS will only be marginally profitable at the end of the day.

And while neither studio has had a good year, at least Universal's released one good movie. Here's Big Fox's releases to date:

FANTASTIC FOUR 2
EPIC MOVIE
PATHFINDER
FIREHOUSE DOG
RENO 911 MIAMI (funny in spots, but not particularly "good" or what you might call a "movie")
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post #322 of 17415
6/24/07 at 8:37pm
Uni's got one dud, yeah. And it's bad, but this is going to be a good summer for them, especially in comparison.

Or, that is to say, what Jeremy said.
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post #323 of 17415
6/24/07 at 9:43pm
Heh. I see you followed my advice.

Now I'll have a white wine spritzer.
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post #324 of 17415
6/25/07 at 4:28pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarence Beaks

EPIC MOVIE

RENO 911 MIAMI (funny in spots, but not particularly "good" or what you might call a "movie")
In relation to costs, weren't these relatively solid hits?
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post #325 of 17415
6/25/07 at 8:43pm
I was going for a combo quality/profit indictment. Yes, EPIC MOVIE turned a profit, but it was a total smash-and-grab job. When you're a studio as big as Fox and that's your top profit earner, someone needs to be fired.
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post #326 of 17415
6/25/07 at 9:11pm
So I take it the prediction is Ratatouille beating Die Hard Already? That surprises me for some reason. I know it's Pixar, but it seems like their star is a little tarnished after Cars, and this doesn't have a grabby premise.
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post #327 of 17415
6/25/07 at 10:00pm
Tracking has it opening in the $50 million range. That should be enough to beat McClane (which I personally believe will be at $50 million by Monday) - i.e. unless those planes that buzzed my domicile a few hours ago hypnotized all of America to do Tom Rothman's bidding.

BTW, look at the rest of Big Fox's 2007 sked if you get a chance. If I were Murdoch (and I would be if I weren't afraid of the embalming procedure), I'd fire Rothman just for greenlighting that shit.
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post #328 of 17415
6/26/07 at 3:47am
I think Ratatouille's opening weekend will suffer from the fact that Joe Q. Six-Pack won't be able to decipher the film title on the theater marquee. He may end up taking his four year-old to see Hostel 2 at the dollar theater instead. The TV advertising focusing on Ratatouille's pronunciation (rat-a-TOO-ee kids!) was a good idea, but it felt a bit desperate. Also, it's set in Paris with a lead character named Remy and there isn't a Freedom Fry joke anywhere in sight. All of Texas is weeping.

I'm betting it won't make it to $50 million over the first weekend. Low 40s is probable, but high 30s is a possibility with a PG13 Die Hard film opening as well.
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post #329 of 17415
6/28/07 at 2:39pm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/c...7-06-27&p=.htm

The early estimates have Die Hard 4 with $8.8 million. I saw it at the 7:00 P.M. screening with an audience of...brace yourselves...15 people in a room that seated around 150.

I still think Ratatouille will pull around $60 million; my guess is Die Hard 4 nabs around $45 million over the 5-day weekend.
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post #330 of 17415
6/28/07 at 3:26pm
Die hard needs to make its money this weekend, before the Autobots beat his bald ass down(badly beat I should say.). I refuse on principal to see DH4 in the theater(PG-13 my butt). My buddies all thought it was R, they too are now passing on it. I'm sure the tweeners will love it though.
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post #331 of 17415
6/28/07 at 3:32pm
I must be one of the few people who hasn't completely seen any of the Die Hard movies, why is Danny Glover not in this, did he die in Die Hard 3?
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post #332 of 17415
6/28/07 at 3:34pm
No one can kill Danny Glover, not even Lou Gosset Jr.
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post #333 of 17415
6/28/07 at 4:36pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElCapitanAmerica
I must be one of the few people who hasn't completely seen any of the Die Hard movies, why is Danny Glover not in this, did he die in Die Hard 3?
On the off chance you're not joking, Danny Glover is in the Lethal Weapon movies, not the Die Hards. Sam L. Jackson was in Die Hard 3, and no, he didn't die, but he was like a special guest star for that installment.
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post #334 of 17415
6/28/07 at 6:05pm
Quote:
The early estimates have Die Hard 4 with $8.8 million.
OK, the actuals are Live Free or Die Hard at $9.1 million. I must confess to calling out assholes who scream "Flop! Flop!" when the first day numbers comes out (especially when it's four more days left 'til they're final!)

But things aren't looking good for Fox or John McClane, and that sucks ass b/c I dug the shit outta the film...
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post #335 of 17415
6/28/07 at 10:28pm
What was the budget on the latest Die Hard? Dellamorte?
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post #336 of 17415
6/28/07 at 10:41pm
$110 Million. Internation is where it's going to make its money, though, as it may not make that domestically.

And here's the link for this weeks predix:
http://www.chud.com/index.php?type=news&id=10879
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post #337 of 17415
7/1/07 at 2:00pm
Die Hard's 5-day is $48 million. What's impressive is its Wednesday-to-Sunday multiplier. The fact Friday ($10.5m) topped its opening Wednesday ($9.1m) shocked the hell out of me, and it did it again on Saturday and (estimated) Sunday. Word-of-mouth on the film is incredibly great, based on all the reports I'm reading. It's pretty much a shoe-in to break $100m domestically and clean up overseas.
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post #338 of 17415
7/1/07 at 5:54pm
I don't know...Transformers is a question-mark for me (i.e. regarding how big it'll open). If the film doesn't pull in $100 million over its 7-day (!) opening weekend, that's going to be a major disaster!
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post #339 of 17415
7/1/07 at 5:59pm
http://www.chud.com/index.php?type=news&id=10904

Transformers should get to 100 by weekend's end, possibly 150.
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post #340 of 17415
7/1/07 at 6:03pm
I've got my ticket for tomorrow night's 8:00 P.M. screening. I'm curious to see how many people show up. At the least, it'll be more than the 15(!) people who attended Live Free or Die Hard at its Wednesday night 7:00 P.M. screening this past week...
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post #341 of 17415
7/1/07 at 6:14pm
I never want to wish bad things on anyone but today i'm happy that Rothman and his PG-13 obesssion in the end never made a difference.

As for Ratatouille I haven't seen it yet but it's the Pixar movie with Toy Story and The Invincibles i've been more excited to go see. Heck at first I didn't know that it was a Pixar flick. Maybe a rat chief in Paris is too alien for the general public..?! Either ways, the numbers are baffling.
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post #342 of 17415
7/1/07 at 6:27pm
Is "a frog is dissected" in reference to Woody Allen's "Spring Bulletin?"
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post #343 of 17415
7/1/07 at 6:39pm
Can't we blame the advertising for Ratatouille average number?
All I ever saw was a 'from the makers of these other pixar films' tv spot followed by the rat saying "Don't just fork it down!"

How about concentrating on the movie that's actually being released and showing some nice shots and funny parts?
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post #344 of 17415
7/1/07 at 6:49pm
I seem to remember that despite "disappointing" box office, Cars had a quiet, dignified run holding on to the bottom of the top 10 for about a month before it dropped off. Disney has nothing to worry about if Ratatouille ends up with those kind of legs.
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post #345 of 17415
7/1/07 at 8:04pm
Depends on who you listen to. Everyone's so fixated on the opening weekend box office that a long-distance runner can be seen as a disappointment, no matter how much it makes. I'd like to imagine both Disney and Pixar brushing this off and seeing the big picture, but the fact is this kind of thing seems to affect stuff like stock value (one of many, many things wrong with the stock market system, in my view) so it really does have an impact. I don't know how much to trust Jim Hill--the guy seems to have a vendetta against Pixar lately--but he keeps going on about the people within Disney who are grumbling that they paid too much for Pixar. I worry about this crap, because it might impact Pixar's autonomy just as they're vulnerable.
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post #346 of 17415
7/1/07 at 8:11pm
Actually, good point, considering the shit that's been reported the last few weeks that Disney's current animation division is none too happy with John Lasseter for demanding that--gasp!--the studio put out quality work instead of DTV crap. I'd be wary about anything that could give those people ammo further down the line too..
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post #347 of 17415
7/1/07 at 8:17pm
Andre, maybe you can answer this for me. Why did Pixar ever move it's release date from fall to summer? There's so much competition almost every week in summer, and it seems they never really had much (or at least a whole lot less) competition when they released their films in November.

The only reason I can think of to release the movie in summer is so the DVD is out before or around Christmas. But Pixar's DVDs were bestsellers before, so it still doesn't make all that much sense. At least to me.

Cars was the first to come out in the summer, and I thought that was because they had trouble meeting the November date, and being Pixar, they didn't want to rush the film just to meet the date. Now it seems this is going to be a regular thing for them. Why?
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post #348 of 17415
7/1/07 at 8:24pm
I hope word of mouth pushes the film onward. A lot of places--myself included--now think Pixar has a sacred quadrilogy of films.
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post #349 of 17415
7/1/07 at 8:28pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by WayDen
Andre, maybe you can answer this for me. Why did Pixar ever move it's release date from fall to summer? There's so much competition almost every week in summer, and it seems they never really had much (or at least a whole lot less) competition when they released their films in November.

The only reason I can think of to release the movie in summer is so the DVD is out before or around Christmas. But Pixar's DVDs were bestsellers before, so it still doesn't make all that much sense. At least to me.

Cars was the first to come out in the summer, and I thought that was because they had trouble meeting the November date, and being Pixar, they didn't want to rush the film just to meet the date. Now it seems this is going to be a regular thing for them. Why?
For awhile, it looked like Pixar was using an 18-month window between films (or as close as can be). Monsters, Inc. was released in November 2001. Then came Finding Nemo in May 2003, and The Incredibles in Nov. '04. Cars was originally intended as a Nov. '05 release (keeping with the holidays, obviously), but ran into production troubles and was pushed to summer of last year. Ratatouille was always scheduled for Summer '07.

My feeling is that it really is a DVD issue. Disney figures they can release them in summer, make $200-250m, and then roll in the cash come Christmas from home video sales.
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post #350 of 17415
7/1/07 at 8:29pm
They started releasing Pixar movies in the summer when The Incredibles didn't make as much as Finding Nemo. Of course, neither film released in the summer has beaten Nemo's record, either, so it just looks like one more questionable judgement on Disney's part.

And if the Disney animators want to start comparing numbers for ammo: if I were John Lassiter, I'd pull out a chart that showed the domestic box office performance of the last four or five Disney-only animated movies and compare them with Pixar's. Even if Ratatouille only ends up doing Bugs Life-type numbers, it'd still have out-grossed every Disney movie released so far this decade. On top of that, it's an absolutely wonderful movie, something I haven't been able to say about a Disney movie since Lilo & Stich.
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