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post #30851 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul C View Post

I wonder if this summer is making studios sweat slightly. Seems like there's a *lot* of stuff struggling to make a profit even when they're reasonably popular, because they spent too much and expected international to pick up the slack.

Today I was looking at next summer's slate and chances are that'll restore status quo: GOTG 2, FAST 8, KINGSMAN 2, TRANSFORMERS something (6?). And BAD BOYS 3's still slated for early June, though that'll probably gets pushed back since Smith isn't available till early 2017.
post #30852 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Virtanen View Post


Today I was looking at next summer's slate and chances are that'll restore status quo: GOTG 2, FAST 8, KINGSMAN 2, TRANSFORMERS something (6?). And BAD BOYS 3's still slated for early June, though that'll probably gets pushed back since Smith isn't available till early 2017.

 

I wouldn't bet the bank on KINGSMAN 2 just yet.  I could see that one underwhelming quite a bit when it actually hits the theater.  The others will print money, though.

post #30853 of 34000

I wonder if FAST 8 will drop back to FAST 5 levels now that Walker is gone.

post #30854 of 34000
This year was such a damn bust. I remember thinking we have BvS, an epic X-MEN, ID2, GHOSTBUSTERS, SUICIDE SQUAD. Even WARCRAFT and a great STAR TREK film floundered, stateside.

Crummy year, crummy returns.
post #30855 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by felix View Post
 

I wonder if FAST 8 will drop back to FAST 5 levels now that Walker is gone.

 

They won't hit the heights of F7 again.  Too many X factors were in play that are out of a studio's control that made the film take off like that.  Beyond the fact that it was a crowd pleaser, had a fantastic trailer, and had a send off for a main character, it benefited from being the right movie at the right time.  This happens once in a while and it's almost impossible to replicate.

post #30856 of 34000
None of em' will be as good as FAST FIVE, anyway.
post #30857 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raynis View Post

This year was such a damn bust. I remember thinking we have BvS, an epic X-MEN, ID2, GHOSTBUSTERS, SUICIDE SQUAD. Even WARCRAFT and a great STAR TREK film floundered, stateside.

Crummy year, crummy returns.

Here comes the hollywood implosion!

post #30858 of 34000
It cannot happen soon enough. Take us back to the 70's when interesting filmmakers were allowed to make interesting films without a comic book or nostalgia bait property attached at the hip and a bloated, totally unreasonable budget.
post #30859 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raynis View Post

None of em' will be as good as FAST FIVE, anyway.

 

It's the high water mark, that's for sure.  I'll always be partial for TOKYO DRIFT in terms of actual driving, but F5 definitely hit the right balance of fun, action, and that X-Factor that makes a film transcend the norm.

post #30860 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freeman View Post

It cannot happen soon enough. Take us back to the 70's when interesting filmmakers were allowed to make interesting films without a comic book or nostalgia bait property attached at the hip and a bloated, totally unreasonable budget.

 For once I want to see movies that I can't know what is going to happen in every moment and every minute. And reaches a climax where I have catharsis. 

post #30861 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnotaur3 View Post
 

 For once I want to see movies that I can't know what is going to happen in every moment and every minute.

 

Then don't watch any trailers.  I'm sick to death of them showing every single plot beat and highlight from the film.  

post #30862 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post
 

 

Then don't watch any trailers.  I'm sick to death of them showing every single plot beat and highlight from the film.  

 

Um... I'm afraid it's worse than that. I'm sick to death in predicting conventional storytelling. 

post #30863 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnotaur3 View Post
 

 

Um... I'm afraid it's worse than that. I'm sick to death in predicting conventional storytelling. 

 

I won't disagree with this either.  The predictable plotting is getting tiresome.

post #30864 of 34000

Well, let us look at next year's summer slate in depth:

 

May:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy 2: Should be a hit, but I would be a bit surprised if it made substantially more than the first one. The Marvel movies are still performing well, but it does appear that they have a ceiling of about $400 million. The first Guardians strikes me as a "right place, right time" movie that probably already reached closed to the maximum audience it was ever going to get. That being said, it should be a shoe-in for $300 million + in the states and may increase WW from the first. 

 

Baywatch: If the budget on this is reasonable, it could be a mid-size hit. I don't think there is much love for the Baywatch IP out there, but The Rock is well liked and his movies tend to perform well. It could be the right combo of star + concept that hits are built of these days. 

 

Pirates 5: Flop, at least relative to budget. I think this does, at best, $150 domestic. Meanwhile, a quick googling shows reports that the budget for this thing is $320 million. That means it needs to clear a billion to even come close to being profitable. 

 

June:

 

Bad Boys 3: Like others have said, I have my doubts that this will make a June release date. Even if it does, I am not really sure what the market is for it. Bad Boys 2 was a solid hit, but it wasn't a monster or anything. If the budget is kept in check, it might be a mild success, but this definitely feels like a movie that was green-lit simply because it had a recognizable brand rather than having a brand people cared about seeing more of today. 

 

Wonder Woman: Even though they have had terrible legs, there does seem to be initial audience interest in these DC movies. Plus, WB's marketing team continues to do a pretty good job selling these things, even if they aren't knocking them out of the park in terms of quality. I think this opens big (though maybe not as big as BvS or Suicide Squad seems poised to) and fades quickly. 

 

The Mummy: It seems like the last few years have proved that people only really want to see Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible movies, so I am not sure how well this does. People seemed to like those Brendan Fraser Mummy movies fine, but was anyone really clamoring for a reboot of this? Or a whole connected universe of monster movies? Marketing could change my mind, but this seems like it has an uphill battle. 

 

World War Z 2: This feels like a flop in the making. The first one wasn't a particularly large hit ($540 WW on a $200 million budget would normally be considered pretty mediocre, but it did beat the perception before release that it was going to be a huge flop). Nor do I think the first one was particularly beloved. I think general audiences liked it fine, but probably have little interest in a second helping, while the fanboys hated it. This feels like a situation where Paramount should have breathed a sigh of relief that the first one ended up performing modestly well and moved on from the idea of a sequel. 

 

Kingsman 2: Normally, I would peg this as a hit. The first one was well liked and leggy, and a sequel seems poised to break out. I think the release date is a problem, though, as there is just so much competition all around it. I think this could perform much better in a fall/spring slot, or at least not perform any worse. Still, if the budget is as reasonable as the first, this should be a relative success. 

 

Cars 3: Cars 2 didn't perform particularly well and wasn't particularly well liked, but the grosses of the movies are entirely besides the point for the Cars franchise. The merchandising is what matters. 

 

Transformers 5: Huge hit overseas (especially in China), probably continues the downward trend for the series domestically. Much like Pirates 5, the budget on this thing will probably require grosses near $1 billion to even break even, a bet that seems incredibly risky for a franchise that saw a major decrease in domestic grosses between the 2nd and 3rd and 3rd and 4th installments. 

 

Despicable Me 3: Unqualified hit, for better or worse. I think it will probably come down a bit from Despicable Me 2/Minion, but Cars 3 also strikes me as much weaker competition than Monsters University or Inside Out, and there are few other animated offering currently scheduled. 

 

Uncharted: Apparently, there is an Uncharted movie scheduled for next June. It currently has no director or cast, though apparently Joe Carnahan just finished a draft of the script. There is no way this even comes out next summer. 

 

July:

 

Spider-Man: Seems like a safe bet to be a hit. Amazing Spider-man 2 managed to make $700 million WW despite being a terrible movie and being a follow-up to a not particularly well liked original. Plus, it had an enormous budget. Even if that last bit holds true for this film, I think Spider-Man films have a pretty high floor to begin with, and this film has the Marvel machine behind it and Iron Man in it to attract any doubters. 

 

War for the Planet of the Apes: This one seems dependent upon marketing. People really liked the last film, but that film had pretty weak competition. This is wedged in-between Spider-Man and Dunkirk, which seems like it could be a problem. Still, if the film is as good as the last, and the marketing is solid, it seems like it could be a hit. 

 

Dunkirk: Nolan is probably one of the only "name" directors out there, and this seems well positioned as a more "adult" offering in a summer full of sci-fi/action spectacle. If Warner didn't already have tentpoles scheduled for October (Blade Runner) and November (Justice League) and this turns out well, I would think they would move it for Oscar consideration. Still, this seems pretty well positioned to me if the marketing team does a good job. 

 

Jumanji: Pairing The Rock and Kevin Hart together seems like a solid strategy to make this profitable. Still, Sony needs to be careful with this one. Hopefully they learned this summer that you can't spend absurd amounts on a comedy with a recognizable name and expect huge results. If they keep the budget in check, I don't see any reason this can't be as profitable as Central Intelligence was this summer. Sony just has to make sure they don't assume that just because people are aware of a brand that people want more films from that brand.

 

August:  

 

Alien: Covenant: I am not sure why Fox is releasing this strong release date (there really isn't anything else that seems likely to be a hit currently scheduled for the rest of the month) on a film that seems likely to under-perform. This is a situation that seems very similar to World War Z, in that the first film performed moderately well, but no one really loved it and there has been a long break in-between installments to further cool interest. If I were Fox, I would move Planet of the Apes or Kingsman into this slot and let them finish out the summer. 

 

 

I would say that, overall, this slate seems a little better than this year's. Still, it has a whole bunch of sequels/adaptations/remakes that no one seemed to ask for that will probably have budgets that are much too large.  

post #30865 of 34000
Fraid will be pleased there's another Transformers movie that he can enjoy.
post #30866 of 34000

Wait. WHAT? There's a Jumanji reboot?!

post #30867 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by COULD432 View Post
 

Well, let us look at next year's summer slate in depth:

 

May:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy 2: Should be a hit, but I would be a bit surprised if it made substantially more than the first one. The Marvel movies are still performing well, but it does appear that they have a ceiling of about $400 million. The first Guardians strikes me as a "right place, right time" movie that probably already reached closed to the maximum audience it was ever going to get. That being said, it should be a shoe-in for $300 million + in the states and may increase WW from the first. 

 

Baywatch: If the budget on this is reasonable, it could be a mid-size hit. I don't think there is much love for the Baywatch IP out there, but The Rock is well liked and his movies tend to perform well. It could be the right combo of star + concept that hits are built of these days. 

 

Pirates 5: Flop, at least relative to budget. I think this does, at best, $150 domestic. Meanwhile, a quick googling shows reports that the budget for this thing is $320 million. That means it needs to clear a billion to even come close to being profitable. 

 

June:

 

Bad Boys 3: Like others have said, I have my doubts that this will make a June release date. Even if it does, I am not really sure what the market is for it. Bad Boys 2 was a solid hit, but it wasn't a monster or anything. If the budget is kept in check, it might be a mild success, but this definitely feels like a movie that was green-lit simply because it had a recognizable brand rather than having a brand people cared about seeing more of today. 

 

Wonder Woman: Even though they have had terrible legs, there does seem to be initial audience interest in these DC movies. Plus, WB's marketing team continues to do a pretty good job selling these things, even if they aren't knocking them out of the park in terms of quality. I think this opens big (though maybe not as big as BvS or Suicide Squad seems poised to) and fades quickly. 

 

The Mummy: It seems like the last few years have proved that people only really want to see Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible movies, so I am not sure how well this does. People seemed to like those Brendan Fraser Mummy movies fine, but was anyone really clamoring for a reboot of this? Or a whole connected universe of monster movies? Marketing could change my mind, but this seems like it has an uphill battle. 

 

World War Z 2: This feels like a flop in the making. The first one wasn't a particularly large hit ($540 WW on a $200 million budget would normally be considered pretty mediocre, but it did beat the perception before release that it was going to be a huge flop). Nor do I think the first one was particularly beloved. I think general audiences liked it fine, but probably have little interest in a second helping, while the fanboys hated it. This feels like a situation where Paramount should have breathed a sigh of relief that the first one ended up performing modestly well and moved on from the idea of a sequel. 

 

Kingsman 2: Normally, I would peg this as a hit. The first one was well liked and leggy, and a sequel seems poised to break out. I think the release date is a problem, though, as there is just so much competition all around it. I think this could perform much better in a fall/spring slot, or at least not perform any worse. Still, if the budget is as reasonable as the first, this should be a relative success. 

 

Cars 3: Cars 2 didn't perform particularly well and wasn't particularly well liked, but the grosses of the movies are entirely besides the point for the Cars franchise. The merchandising is what matters. 

 

Transformers 5: Huge hit overseas (especially in China), probably continues the downward trend for the series domestically. Much like Pirates 5, the budget on this thing will probably require grosses near $1 billion to even break even, a bet that seems incredibly risky for a franchise that saw a major decrease in domestic grosses between the 2nd and 3rd and 3rd and 4th installments. 

 

Despicable Me 3: Unqualified hit, for better or worse. I think it will probably come down a bit from Despicable Me 2/Minion, but Cars 3 also strikes me as much weaker competition than Monsters University or Inside Out, and there are few other animated offering currently scheduled. 

 

Uncharted: Apparently, there is an Uncharted movie scheduled for next June. It currently has no director or cast, though apparently Joe Carnahan just finished a draft of the script. There is no way this even comes out next summer. 

 

July:

 

Spider-Man: Seems like a safe bet to be a hit. Amazing Spider-man 2 managed to make $700 million WW despite being a terrible movie and being a follow-up to a not particularly well liked original. Plus, it had an enormous budget. Even if that last bit holds true for this film, I think Spider-Man films have a pretty high floor to begin with, and this film has the Marvel machine behind it and Iron Man in it to attract any doubters. 

 

War for the Planet of the Apes: This one seems dependent upon marketing. People really liked the last film, but that film had pretty weak competition. This is wedged in-between Spider-Man and Dunkirk, which seems like it could be a problem. Still, if the film is as good as the last, and the marketing is solid, it seems like it could be a hit. 

 

Dunkirk: Nolan is probably one of the only "name" directors out there, and this seems well positioned as a more "adult" offering in a summer full of sci-fi/action spectacle. If Warner didn't already have tentpoles scheduled for October (Blade Runner) and November (Justice League) and this turns out well, I would think they would move it for Oscar consideration. Still, this seems pretty well positioned to me if the marketing team does a good job. 

 

Jumanji: Pairing The Rock and Kevin Hart together seems like a solid strategy to make this profitable. Still, Sony needs to be careful with this one. Hopefully they learned this summer that you can't spend absurd amounts on a comedy with a recognizable name and expect huge results. If they keep the budget in check, I don't see any reason this can't be as profitable as Central Intelligence was this summer. Sony just has to make sure they don't assume that just because people are aware of a brand that people want more films from that brand.

 

August:  

 

Alien: Covenant: I am not sure why Fox is releasing this strong release date (there really isn't anything else that seems likely to be a hit currently scheduled for the rest of the month) on a film that seems likely to under-perform. This is a situation that seems very similar to World War Z, in that the first film performed moderately well, but no one really loved it and there has been a long break in-between installments to further cool interest. If I were Fox, I would move Planet of the Apes or Kingsman into this slot and let them finish out the summer. 

 

 

I would say that, overall, this slate seems a little better than this year's. Still, it has a whole bunch of sequels/adaptations/remakes that no one seemed to ask for that will probably have budgets that are much too large.  

 

Nolan is directing the ONE original movie slated. 

post #30868 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post
 

Wait. WHAT? There's a Jumanji reboot?!

Yeah, I wasn't aware of that either. Or that Uncharted movie. 

post #30869 of 34000

What's the over/under for how many of these movies will have a third act that revolves around shutting down a magical sky portal before 'xyz' can get through?

post #30870 of 34000
Whatever happened to "OMG, there's a bomb! Which wire do I cut?!?"
post #30871 of 34000

I'll take them both over "First I killed your father, now I'll kill YOU."

post #30872 of 34000

WORLD WAR Z 2

 

Is that really the title?

 

Look at it. It's just awful. It will look worse in the advertising.

post #30873 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malmordo View Post
 

WORLD WAR Z 2

 

Is that really the title?

 

Look at it. It's just awful. It will look worse in the advertising.

It looks like that is the title for now. I would assume that they give it some lame subtitle, but who knows. 

post #30874 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malmordo View Post
 

WORLD WAR Z 2

 

Is that really the title?

 

Look at it. It's just awful. It will look worse in the advertising.

ZORLD WAR 2

post #30875 of 34000
Z World Z War.
post #30876 of 34000
Zombie ||

Oh wait...
post #30877 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bradito View Post

Z World Z War.

That's Herzog's new doc.
post #30878 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post

I wouldn't bet the bank on KINGSMAN 2 just yet.  I could see that one underwhelming quite a bit when it actually hits the theater.  The others will print money, though.

Depends on the marketing, which they really pulled off the last time. I mentioned KINGSMAN 2 mostly because it's one of the rare instances where the filmmakers really seem to want to make the sequel, and the first one was quite well-received. Another reason is that it'll likely be free of BvS-GHOSTBUSTERS-SUICIDE SQUAD -style studio-fuckery since Vaughn the producer / owner of the production company probably won't meddle with Vaughn the director / writer.

And I forgot DUNKIRK. July is an odd release time for a serious war film. I recall Nolan describing INTERSTELLAR as an old-fashioned family adventure film (paraphrasing), he really has a weird idea of "fun". Wonder what kind of a parent he is.
post #30879 of 34000

Not sure on DUNKIRK.  I know a lot of people that flat out hate INTERSTELLAR and I suspect that some of the 'Nolan can do no wrong' lustre has faded somewhat.

post #30880 of 34000

MURPH!!! I mean... MARTHA!!!

post #30881 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Judas Booth View Post
 

Not sure on DUNKIRK.  I know a lot of people that flat out hate INTERSTELLAR and I suspect that some of the 'Nolan can do no wrong' lustre has faded somewhat.

I thought about this, but Interstellar had a very strong 3.8 final multiplier from its opening weekend. People seemed to like it well enough. 

 

The bigger issue might be the lack of a true star. Nolan's last few films have had either a star actor (Leo, McConaughey) or character (Batman). Dunkirk has neither. 

post #30882 of 34000

Stars aren't exactly the draw they used to be. 

 

Who went to see Free State of Jones? 

post #30883 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnotaur3 View Post
 

Stars aren't exactly the draw they used to be. 

 

Unless they are at War, am I right?

 

 

...I hate myself

post #30884 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnotaur3 View Post
 

Stars aren't exactly the draw they used to be. 

 

Who went to see Free State of Jones? 

Stars aren't draws on their own, but they certainly make a difference if the concept is already solid. No way The Revenant makes $180 million without Leo, or Central Intelligence $130 without Hart/Johnson. Certainly, some movies succeed without proven stars (mainly ones that are based on existing, popular properties) and some fail even with stars, but they are still important. Dunkirk could certainly be a huge hit, but having Dicaprio or McConaughey in the lead would certainly better position it for success than having Tom Hardy and Cillian Murphy. 

 

Also, can we all pause for a second and note that Harry Styles (of One Direction) is one of the main cast members in a Christopher Nolan film. That is...interesting. 

post #30885 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnotaur3 View Post
 

Stars aren't exactly the draw they used to be. 

 

Who went to see Free State of Jones? 

 

I wanted to see it but I slept in that Saturday.

post #30886 of 34000

Michael Caine isn't in Dunkirk. Ergo, it will be unsuccessful.

 

Yeah, I just totally Ergo'd you motherfuckers. 

post #30887 of 34000

I bet he shows up in it yet.

post #30888 of 34000
"My name is A-dolph bloody Hitler."
post #30889 of 34000

The probability of sky-portal based finales in next year's offerings...
  
Guardians of the Galaxy 2: 91%

 

Baywatch: 1%
 
Pirates 5: 88%
  
Bad Boys 3: 7.5%

 

Wonder Woman: 99%
 
The Mummy: 98%

 

World War Z 2: 55%

 

Kingsman 2: 15%
 
Cars 3: 20%
 
Transformers 5: 90%
 
Despicable Me 3: 64%
 
Uncharted: 10% (that's if they don't choose to rip off Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, in which case 99.9%)
  
Spider-Man: 77% (It's set in high school, so maybe they'll save the magic portals for the sequel in college)
 
War for the Planet of the Apes: 1%
 
Dunkirk: 0%
 
Jumanji: 97.5%
  
Alien: Covenant: 92%

post #30890 of 34000
Whatever happened to the good old-fashioned Mexican standoff where the bad guy's using the good guy's gf as a human shield?
post #30891 of 34000

Quote:

Originally Posted by Freeman View Post

It cannot happen soon enough. Take us back to the 70's when interesting filmmakers were allowed to make interesting films without a comic book or nostalgia bait property attached at the hip and a bloated, totally unreasonable budget.


Remarks like this ring a little false what you think about what movies dominate discussion on this forum. Anyway I doubt the death of tentpole blockbuster culture would lead to some kind of 70's auteur utopia. Lots of movies like that are already made, it's just not many people want to pay to see them. Put your hope in VOD.

post #30892 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bradito View Post

Whatever happened to the good old-fashioned Mexican standoff where the bad guy's using the good guy's gf as a human shield?


Or kid! Like in JACK SLATER III!
post #30893 of 34000
I'm talking about successful movies.
post #30894 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bradito View Post

Fraid will be pleased there's another Transformers movie that he can enjoy.
Only if it's not as godawful as ROTF. And as goofy as this new one is sounding (Anthony Hopkins....or SOMEBODY is playing Merlin?!) ..it may go off the tracks too much even for me....again.

It's looking increasingly like Optimus Prime fights a three headed dragon with Excalibur...I have no idea WHAT'S going on..
post #30895 of 34000
Beats a Skyportal.
post #30896 of 34000
All this sky portal talk from Suicide Squad is the one thing that has me questioning this movie the most. A bad review is one thing....we all got different opinions. But that shit sounds LAME. How many movies has that happened in and where did it start? Return of the King?
post #30897 of 34000
The Lumiere Bros' "From the Earth to the Moon."
post #30898 of 34000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fraid uh noman View Post

All this sky portal talk from Suicide Squad is the one thing that has me questioning this movie the most. A bad review is one thing....we all got different opinions. But that shit sounds LAME. How many movies has that happened in and where did it start? Return of the King?

 

TRIUMPH OF THE WILL?

post #30899 of 34000
These reviews have really taken the wind out of my sails. I had assumed all year this would be something I'd check out opening weekend for sure. Now, I'm about 50/50. Doesn't help that it's coming after a string of underwhelming summer junk. Even the stuff I enjoyed, like Beyond, is just so uninspired that at the end of the day, I don't think I stand to gain anything from what ultimately sounds like more of the absolute same.
post #30900 of 34000
Do you think the huge weekend SS is supposed to have takes a hit at all? Probably not, we're kind of in Transformers territory by now. Probably going to have shit legs though.
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