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CHUD NUMBERS: Box Office Discussion Thread - Page 699

post #34901 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Codename View Post
 

I want to go to the universe where that spawned a massive shared 'Gods' cinematic universe. Gods of Greece! Gods of India! Gods of the Norse! And it all culminates in a big crossover movie where they all have to team up to fight Yahweh. 

 

 

Its a pretty great non-fiction book, by the way!

post #34902 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by neil spurn View Post
 

 

 

Its a pretty great non-fiction book, by the way!

 

But does it have Ra in a sailboat in the sky, dragging the Sun behind him and fighting off Apoph with a laser harpoon canon?

post #34903 of 35236

Or Gods turning into giant flying mechs?

 

Seriously though, I wouldn't mind reading that once I finish The Expanse books...and IT...and Republic of Thieves...and the 15 Warhammer books I have on the backburner...

 

Oh gods too many books! 

post #34904 of 35236
post #34905 of 35236

Almost certainly going to miss top five domestic and will squeak into top ten global (either at 7, 8, or 9) despite a 220 million opening weekend and nearly 300 million opening week. Remarkable and surprising.

The average consumer will just go "lots of money yop yop yop," but a sub 3.0 multiplier (tfa was around 3.8 and R1 was about 3.48, IIRC ...TLJ is projecting to 2.84ish) will be noticed.

After being number one in sales for two straight years Pokemon and Nerf bested Star Wars on the merchandising front in 2017.

Will be interesting to see if this is Star Wars brand fatigue or something else.
Edited by Overlord - 1/3/18 at 6:40pm
post #34906 of 35236

Empire had a sub-3.0 multiplier.  I think the series survived.

post #34907 of 35236
Business models for studios have evolved over the last four decades.

And the question isn't survival. That's a strawman.
post #34908 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Overlord View Post


Almost certainly going to miss top five domestic and top ten global despite a 220 million opening weekend and nearly 300 million opening week. Remarkable and surprising.
 

 

How is that "almost certainly" though? 

 

It has no serious competition till Black Panther in February. Plenty of time to crack that as it's still going strong. AND it's only opening in China this month. 

 

I can't believe I'm defending something making over a BILLION FUCKING DOLLARS but yeah. 

post #34909 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Overlord View Post


Almost certainly going to miss top five domestic and top ten global despite a 220 million opening weekend and nearly 300 million opening week. Remarkable and surprising.

 

Barring late legs it'll miss the Top 5 domestic ($7.8m Tuesday vs. $7.9m for TFA's same Tuesday; I've heard some schools are still out, though, and if they are then TLJ's number is inflated), but not the Top 10 worldwide.  Let's be super conservative and say it only makes it to $615m in the US.  China's going to fall further from Rogue One's $69m but still looks good for $40-45m, which will be enough to lift it to $675-700m overseas.  $1.3 billion will put it at #9, just behind the last Harry Potter film.

post #34910 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Codename View Post
 

It has no serious competition till Black Panther in February. Plenty of time to crack that as it's still going strong. AND it's only opening in China this month.

 

And nooj is bound to spend half that in repeat viewings.

post #34911 of 35236

And one from me this weekend! 

post #34912 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Codename View Post

How is that "almost certainly"

I can't believe I'm defending something making over a BILLION FUCKING DOLLARS but yeah. 

YOP YOP YOP

Think of it this way: if you expected to make 40k this year, but instead they paid you 33.75k, woukd you notice? Absolutely. And that is a generous comparison!

As to projections:

The Last Jedi - Day 18 (Monday) domestic total (actual not estimate): $531,511,829


 


If 82.84858469467594% like RO, final gross will be $622,673,630 (2.83 multiplier*)

If 80.09619732449443% like TFA, final gross will be $637,302,894 (2.90 multiplier*)



$623 million domestic scenario: If a 50.4%/49.6% domestic/foreign split like RO, final worldwide gross will be $1,235,463,552.

$623 million domestic scenario: If a 45.3%/54.7% domestic/foreign split like TFA, final worldwide gross will be $1,374,555,475.

$637 million domestic scenario: If a 50.4%/49.6% domestic/foreign split like RO, final worldwide gross will be $1,264,489,869.

$637 million domestic scenario: If a 45.3%/54.7% domestic/foreign split like TFA, final worldwide gross will be $1,406,849,656.


 


*multiplier = (gross divided by opening weekend)


 


TFA domestic multiplier: 3.78

RO domestic multiplier: 3.43


 


All of this will be seen by Disney as a several hundred million dollar under-performance.  A sub 3.0 multiplier has a lot of associations in the movie industry in re: audience reactions. 


 


China may actually be sub 100 million.  Waiting until January 5th to open in China is looking like a pretty significant mistake. 


Edited by Overlord - 1/3/18 at 1:10pm
post #34913 of 35236

Oh lawd! Disney will only make MOST of the money and not ALL of the money! The sky is fucking falling! 

 

I'm sure that several million underperformance is soothed by the 500 Million Coco made. The 790 Million Pirates made. The 1.2 Billion Beauty and the Beast made and the 800 Million a piece Thor: Ragnarok and GOTG 2 made each.

 

I may just be a blue collar joe but I'm guessing Disney isn't worried about shit right now.  

post #34914 of 35236
Nice analysis.
post #34915 of 35236

post #34916 of 35236

Why did they wait to release in China?

 

Did they wait with forwakens and rogue one?

post #34917 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcnooj82 View Post
 

Why did they wait to release in China?

 

Did they wait with forwakens and rogue one?

 

Glad you asked!

 

TFA and R1 released something like January 6th and January 9th, so Disney has done this before.  However, China decides when a film releases in their country, as they tend to give preference to domestically produced movies.  This is where the plot thickens:  Disney was actually offered a December 15th release date and they turned it down.  

 

Looking like a real bad decision.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2017/11/12/why-disney-rejected-chinas-plum-release-date-offer-for-star-wars-the-last-jedi/#969808e7d241


Edited by Overlord - 1/3/18 at 1:35pm
post #34918 of 35236

They musta heard about that third act peck.

post #34919 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShaunH View Post
 

They musta heard about that third act peck.

 

You may be joking, but yeah ... as sad as it is to say, word is that sort of thing doesn't play well in Asia, particularly China.   

post #34920 of 35236

Don't think TFA did well at all in China. Did China go see Rogue One?

post #34921 of 35236
Both did ok? Nothing astounding.
post #34922 of 35236
124 million and 69 million iirc

**FIXED
Edited by Overlord - 1/3/18 at 4:54pm
post #34923 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Overlord View Post

116 million and 55 million iirc

 


That's not good!

post #34924 of 35236
China is not big on Star Wars.
post #34925 of 35236

Comedies about Mermaids are what the Chinese market is after.

post #34926 of 35236

Coming Soon:

 

Realistic Wars

 

Starring Matt Damon and Willem Dafoe

 

A Chinese Government Pictures production

post #34927 of 35236
This should be a factor, as well, though who knows how much.

https://t.co/JbVX0XkyNy
post #34928 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Overlord View Post

China may actually be sub 100 million.  Waiting until January 5th to open in China is looking like a pretty significant mistake. 

 

China's looked to be $50m-ish for awhile, and it has nothing to do with waiting a couple weeks to open it.  The franchise has had trouble mustering interest there and is confusing to their audience, because they never got a wide-scale release of the Original Trilogy.  Imagine The Force Awakens and Rogue One being the first two Star Wars films you ever saw, without any context.  TFA made $124m, Rogue One made $69m, and The Last Jedi will make less.

post #34929 of 35236
No offence, but China has terrible taste in movies judging by their box office. I mean, Fate of the Furious is their highest grossing Hollywood film. Transformers: Age of Exctinction is not that far behind.
post #34930 of 35236

Furious is a masterpiece compared to the propaganda stuff the local film industry offers (Wolf Warrior 2 was the cream of the crop).

post #34931 of 35236

Wait, did you like F8 more than WOLF WARRIOR 2? Couldn't disagree more.

post #34932 of 35236

I thought F8 was okay. Same with Wolf Warrior 2.

 

Can't say which one i liked better.

post #34933 of 35236
They’re both shit and I’m disappointed in China.
post #34934 of 35236

There's only one thing for it. Step It Up was a huge hit in China, as was Bollywood movie Dangal. So the Chinese like dancing!

 

Therefore if they want Solo to be a success there, it needs even more reshoots....

 

Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
SOLO:THE MUSICAL
 
"I've got a great feeling about this!"
 
 

giphy.webp

post #34935 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Codename View Post
 

Ahhhh Gods of Egypt. The tastiest toasted ham and cheese sandwich. 

 

I want to go to the universe where that spawned a massive shared 'Gods' cinematic universe. Gods of Greece! Gods of India! Gods of the Norse! And it all culminates in a big crossover movie where they all have to team up to fight Yahweh. 

 

Oh, God. Yes.

 

It will be the pop culture even that finally creates peace between Judaism, Christianity and Islam as they unite against the purveyors of pulp fiction.

post #34936 of 35236

Gods Of Atheists

 

Directed by: Alan Smithee

 

Tagline: "You Won't Believe This!"

 

Cast:

 

Running Time: 4 minutes 29 seconds

post #34937 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post
 

Gods Of Atheists

 

Directed by: Alan Smithee

 

Tagline: "You Won't Believe This!"

 

Cast: Mads Mikkelsen as all of the Norse Gods in a Split-style performance

 

Running Time: 4 minutes 29 seconds

post #34938 of 35236

Gods Of Vatican

 

Directed by: Paul Verhoeven

 

Tagline: Goddamn Right It's Plural

 

Cast: Geoffrey Rush, Jim Caviezel, Rihanna and Jackie Chan

 

Running Time: As long as it takes for your theatre to burn down.


Edited by Virtanen - 1/4/18 at 5:06am
post #34939 of 35236

$5.1m Wednesday for TLJ, which is right between TFA ($6.2m) and RO's ($4.2m) respective numbers.

 

Super silly to speculate with, but if it maintains that pace through the end of its run - right between those two films - it'll finish at $671m and #3 all-time domestically.

post #34940 of 35236
Abysmal.

Total failure.

Pour hyperspace fuel on it.

Burn it all down.
post #34941 of 35236

To be fair, I still think there's a bit of a holiday boost in effect, and a more likely finish is in the $630-640m range for #5 domestically.

post #34942 of 35236
Well it looks like Ridley's latest did not make...all the money in the world.

$17 million worldwide.
post #34943 of 35236

Molly's Game is even worse. $5.2m.

 

Sorry Jessica Chastain but audiences simply aren't turning out for you.  

post #34944 of 35236
Greatest Showman didn’t completely tank thanks to the holidays. Might finish with 80M domestic.

Jumanji is playing like A Night at the Museum did a decade ago!
post #34945 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluelouboyle View Post

Well it looks like Ridley's latest did not make...all the money in the world.

$17 million worldwide.

 

I could see it getting a boost if it wins some Golden Globe awards (especially for Plummer) and really picking up heat if it gets any Academy Award nominations (again, for Plummer).

 

I've heard it's very good, not great, from a couple people who have seen it.  Everyone is raving on Plummer, though.  I still see him winning Best Supporting Actor over this.

post #34946 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post

Molly's Game is even worse. $5.2m.

Sorry Jessica Chastain but audiences simply aren't turning out for you.  

Shame. I've heard nothing but good things. Same thing happened to STEVE JOBS, which I loved.
post #34947 of 35236

It'll be weird if Ridley's movie doesn't do well, but Danny Boyle's upcoming FX show about the same events (with the awesome Donald Sutherland in the Getty role), Trust, becomes a success. 

post #34948 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post

Molly's Game is even worse. $5.2m.

Sorry Jessica Chastain but audiences simply aren't turning out for you.  

In fairness, Molly’s Game doesn’t go wide in the US until this coming weekend.
post #34949 of 35236
post #34950 of 35236
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSaxon View Post
 

Gods Of Atheists

 

Directed by: Alan Smithee

 

Tagline: "You Won't Believe This!"

 

Cast:

 

Running Time: 4 minutes 29 seconds

 

Can't wait to see Richard Dawkins transform into an 10 foot tall Skeptic Mech. 

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