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Originally Posted by SAIRUS
Blu-ray, while possibly a little more future proof, keeps releasing profiles, BD+s, and costing more. Could we see Beta 2?
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HD-DVD has had similar technical problems, though. Neither format is really 100% mature yet. They tried to make a HD-DVD with similar capacity to Blu-ray and found that nothing could actually play it reliably. Oops.
HD-DVD is
massively outsold every week, and even lost in sales to Blu-ray the week Transformers was released on HD-DVD. It's 2:1 in the US this year, and more like 4:1 in Europe and 9:1 in Japan.
Counting PS3s (and xbox add-on HD-DVD players), HD-DVD is
massively outnumbered in players sold, and the cheaper PS3 released just in time for the holidays is going to probably swamp HD-DVD player sales even more. The next generation of Blu-ray players has started to come out with lower prices, and prices are going to be cut further for the holidays. Last I checked, comparable quality players are about the same price now between Blu-ray and HD-DVD already.
The problem with appealing to cheap standalone players to save the day for HD-DVD is that HD discs in either format are a niche product now. Discerning videophiles who already have huge, expensive HDTVs are buying the standalone players, and they don't want something that works like shit. They want something that is technically better and has the most studio support so they can get more of the movies that they want. And that describes Blu-ray, not HD-DVD.
Put another way, cheap players would be a great coup if HD discs were about to go mainstream. But they aren't. Everybody likes a bargain, but a cheap player isn't going to make much of a difference when only a small minority of enthusiasts is buying ANY kind standalone player. Enthusiasts with a 55"+ HDTVs will drop another $100 to go with the format that has more of the movies they want and is technically better. And the only non-enthusiasts with
any kind of HD player are PS3 owners.
None of this means that mainstream adoption of any HD format is going to happen anytime soon. It just means that HD-DVD is probably going to fail
even as a niche enthusiast product against Blu-ray.
-HD-DVD isn't selling now
-HD-DVD has fewer players in houses now
-HD-DVD has fewer studios supporting it now
-Even HD-DVD exclusive releases of blockbuster movies can't get it a sales win for a single week against Blu-ray
-HD-DVD is technically inferior
-There is no reason for any of the above to change anytime soon