Turn my headphones up… ugh. Turn em up a little louder… Now check it.

THE ILLUSION OF SAFETY
Did Megan Fox quit Transformers 3 or get fired? That’s been a question circling the Internet, as many reported that she was let go, and then others -and her people said that it was her decision. It seems Megan Fox has been put in the position of many across the country when her job was downsized. Perhaps her part will go to someone overseas (Gemma Arterton is rumored). But in many ways, with a franchise like Transformers there is no single creative force behind the project that is necessary. Where if MacGruber becomes franchise-able there is no film without Will Forte, we are no longer in the place where a franchise film starring an off-brand actor (say Allan Arkin in Inspector Clouseau) will change the fate of most major franchises – at least not yet. The true test of this is when the Spider-Man reboot hits. But even the Bourne films have rumored the next film will have a different actor and director.
But where franchises used to be an actor’s safety card (think Schwarzenegger in the Terminator films) slash last ditch attempt to resurrect their stalling careers (what starlets often turn to nudity for), with the superhero and toy genre, actors are replaceable. And the films are often useless for the actors. Tobey Maguire had Seabiscuit, The Good German, and Brothers in between and after the Spider-Man films. Christian Bale appeared in Terminator 4 and had little discernible impact on the film’s gross, I’m Not There was an art film, 3:10 to Yuma was a disappointment, The Prestige was a disappointment, and Public Enemies wasn’t his picture on top of being a disappointment. Being a superhero doesn’t make you a movie star these days, it’s just good work. But even if your film does $200 Million dollars, it doesn’t mean anything if you’re Brandon Routh.
To that extent it may have to revolve around being a star, and making good choices. The analogous player to Harrison Ford in the 21st century is Orlando Bloom. Both starred in two blockbuster franchises (Star Wars, Indiana Jones vs. LotR and PotC), and played supporting and lead performances in both. And yet post-Elizabethtown and Kingdom of Heaven Bloom’s name is worth little. Ford went on to do Witness and Working Girl and maintained his star persona, even if Ford qua actor (Mosquito Coast) didn’t take. But fame is funny that way, and sometimes actors are thrust too fast into the spotlight, or lose their hunger, or are good for a role but prove too limited in either what they can do or how the public perceives them. This week we also witnessed Chris Klein’s supposed audition for Mamma Mia! and it does nothing to take away from how great his performance is in Election. And Klein – at this point – could probably play a great used car salesman. But he’s never shown the range or versatility of someone like Josh Harnett, for better or ill. At least Jason Biggs had the American Pie franchise.
Which leads us back to Megan Fox. Megan Fox is going to be – for the next couple years unless she Lohans – a perennial for the “hottest woman in the world” lists. Actresses have emerged from such a position (Marilyn Monroe, Jessica Lange, and Kathy Bates come to mind), but it also tends to objectify the actress before they actually do anything. Fox was game in Jennifer’s Body – but as I essayed at the time, she has yet to build a fan base because women generally aren’t sympathetic to hot-ass women and masturbaters would rather deal with nudity at home (of which there was none). With Fox’s noticeable accent and most of her roles revolving around being the sexpot du jour, we’ve seen little range from her, and she has done little to groom herself into the second coming of Angelina Jolie as has been suggested (nothing seems to have challenged her). We’ve seen little of Megan Fox, actress, and perhaps we won’t. But as she was inessential to the success of the franchise she could hang her hat on, perhaps the pay wasn’t worth the effort. But this much is certain: her absence will have no impact on the gross of the next Transformers film.
LET ME BLOW YOUR PREDICTIONS
I loved MacGruber. I have no interest in Shrek Forever After. But MacGruber will be lucky to make $20 Million, and Shrek 4 could top $100 Million. As Kurtis Blow said: Brakes.
1. Shrek Forever After – $87 Million
2. Iron Man Deuce – $25.5 Million
3. Robin Hood – $16.5 Million
4. MacGruber – $14.7 Million
5. Letters to Juliet – $8.6 Million
I think Shrek 2 and 3 really hurt the franchise, because they were both regarded as lesser than the first and/or terrible. But Dreamworks and twenty dollar Imax 3-D tickets should inflate the shit out of the gross. I think the film might do a bit better than I predicted, but I feel like enthusiasm has decidedly waned, and Children’s films are more unpredictable than other pictures because you can’t track kids. But if you like R-rated humor, then MacGruber is a must-see. It’s hilarious, but Universal is the new MGM. We’ll make hash browns on Sunday, because that shit’s delicious.
20 comments
I don't know if the comparison between Harrison Ford and Orlando Bloom is apt. Bloom was a bit player in LOTR and generally considered terrible in POTC, whereas Ford created two iconic characters in his franchises. If anything, Bloom is more like Mark Hamill.
Another great write up with which I only have one issue: The Prestige was not a disappointment.
Shrek 2 wasn't that bad… it was a lesser film, but still good… Shrek 3 was awful tho…
The Prestige was a disappointment? Really?
I gotta correct you man: second time you've done it. What Kurtis Blow said was "Breaks".
What about Jeff Goldblum? Guy stars in one all-time classic (The Fly) and 3 mega blockbusters (Jurassic Park 1 and 2 as well as Independence Day), yet he has no career to speak of and is not even a star, really. And all that without any superhero movies.
<br> Also: shouldn't it be "Iron Man Deux", not "Deuces"? Or maybe "Douches"?
Andre, your column for box office is a new fav! Yet, I think you have underestimated MacGruber. It will be a huge hit and will garner much more than your prediction of 14.7m. Put it at #2 my friend. Cheers. Rob
Why do I keep hearing positives on MacGruber? The commercials and trailers have left me so cold that I had written this off a long time ago, but I keep hearing people talking about it actually being worthwhile. It's hard to imagine it actually being good.
Good column as usual, Dre. Re: Chris Klein, he was surprisingly good in the mediocre movie "Just Friends" — maybe playing smarmy, slimy characters is his strong suit.
"Iron Man Deuce" — You got that right.
Mmmmm… Kathy Bates
Palmer- he's got (or had, no idea if it's still on, it was at least very recently) a tv show currently. So there's that, for whatever it's worth.
Shrek 2 is regarded as one of the lesser? Weird, I consider it the best of the franchise, one of the sequels that's better than the original. Shrek was just 90 minutes of venom from Katzenberg to Eisner and that's why I never cared for the film.
While The Prestige is a fantastic film, I think Dre means it was a commercial disappointment – which it was.
He meant those movies were box office disapointments. Quallity wise 3 10 to Yuma and the prestige are very good films
Great article. Fox is more of a fame-whore avatar than a real actress, so as long as she keeps saying stupid shit to journalists she'll stay in the public eye. @#9: I caught that on TV about a month ago. Was surprised how good he was as the two-faced guitar-douchebag character. Really only ever though he was a one-speed bike. The film is won by Ryan Reynolds' spectacular spazz-out in the car though. @#6: Jeff Goldblum has always been a character actor. Way too eccentric to be a true mainstream leading man. He's still on Law and Order: CI if that hasn't be killed yet. He's never not working though.
DDBO is my favorite article on the site. I've never really given much thought to the science of the box office before this and now I can't stop thinking about it.
Yeah, I don't understand the hub-bub over Fox. I guess because she had her flame war with Bay whenever ago, but still. It's not like she brought anything to a dumpy movie.
I think Fox has potential. She could go Lohan, Winger (and disappear) or she could go small and become a Kara Unger or Famke Janssen – very hot women who consistently work in art films, genre pics and notable TV spots. It's a different path than the one Fox seems to be on but with the upcoming Passion Play and The Crossing it might she could go that route.
the Macgruber sketchs suck…so it would be ironic if the movie was actually funny. Usually the opposite of how it goes (night at the rox et. al.). But there is no way I am paying to see that.
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