| Film | Weekend | Per Screen | Total | |
| 1 | Shrek Forever After | $71,250,000 | $16,345 | $71,250,000 |
| 2 | Iron Man 2 | $26,600,000 (-48.9%) | $6,368 | $251,265,000 |
| 3 | Robin Hood | $18,700,000 (-48.1%) | $5,335 | $66,100,000 |
| 4 | Letters to Juliet | $9,100,000 (-32.8%) | $3,059 | $27,400,000 |
| 5 | Just Wright | $4,225,000 (-49.0%) | $2,307 | $14,631,000 |
| 6 | MacGruber | $4,100,000 | $1,607 | $4,100,000 |
| 7 | Date Night | $2,825,000 (-26.1%) | $1,512 | $90,660,000 |
| 8 | A Nightmare on Elm Street | $2,285,000 (-50.9%) | $1,075 | $59,931,000 |
| 9 | How to Train Your Dragon | $1,850,000 (-63.0%) | $1,057 | $210,940,000 |
| 10 | Kites | $1,035,000 | $4,976 | $1,035,000 |
This just in: The kindness of strangers.
There are a couple modes of thought about the Shrek franchise. There are those who hated it from the outset, those that felt the first film pitted the franchise as the Warner Brothers sensibility against Pixar’s more Disney-ish heart but also thought all the sequels were terrible, and those that liked the first and second film. No one -it seems – liked the third film. And even with 3-D, a reasonably short running time and Imax screens, it did not do business to compare to the the second (opened to $108 Million, finished at $441 Million) or third film (opened to $122 Milion, finished at $322 Million). Such means that it might not be until Friday that the film crosses $100 Million, though with Memorial Day, the film will likely cross $150 by the end of next weekend/Monday. With Toy Story 3 on the horizon, the film has a limited window, and then there’s also Marmaduke and The Karate Kid remake. So I don’t know how much more over $200 this does, but $300 Million seems out of the question. The franchise peaked with the second film, and that had a lot to do with the positive reaction to the first film.
Iron Man 2 is winding down, though it may flat-line next weekend. It should get over $300, but that’s the last significant marker it will hit. If Robin Hood gets a solid Memorial day bounce, it won’t have to limp to $100, which is a terrible gross for this film, but it’s all about the global total (which is already much stronger than domestic). Letters to Juliet should be able to cross $40, and Just Wright could limp past $20 Million. Both are likely to turn a profit considering the cost to make them.
MacGruber. I think it’s safe to blame the low production cost on this one. Well, there’s a number of different factors, like Will Forte having a sort of Tim Meadow-ish stigma of not being a real leading man, or Universal not screening it, or putting out in the middle of summer with mostly Internet hype. I thought the movie was hysterical, but I guess this will be a cult classic if anything. Date Night is going to try and limp to $100. PRIDE. Pride is what makes that happen (it should flat-line over the four day which will put it near $95 Million, and then…). Though A Nightmare on Elm Street did not tank or anything like it, it’s a break-even at best, and more of a “take the money and run” situation.
Kites did surprisingly well for a Brett Ratner presented Bollywood film. It may hang out in the bottom for another week.
Hypothetical: would anyone be surprised if Sex and City 2 outperformed Prince of Persia next weekend?
20 comments
Wow, Andre, you really blew your predictions this week. Why do you even bother. So far off.
I've always thought PRINCE OF PERSIA looked like a failure–who actually wants to see it? Anyone you know? Everyone I know mostly just likes to make Gyllyllenenhaahaall jokes.
I think the fact that IRONMAN 2 is going to pass 300 Million by the end of Memorial Day weekend is pretty damn good, but it seems so somber sounding when mentioned at this site or the net in general.. Perhaps that's what movies like AVATAR and it's 750 Million domestic pricetag do: Cause people to overestimate or have higher expectations when predicting box office..
Sex and the City 2 would not surprise me at all to be #1 next weekend. As for PoP, I would like to see it actually. I normally don't care much for Bruckheimer films, but with the PoP creator being involved with the film, and Jake being a decent enough actor who can hold an accent, why not check it out? It's not like the games have some sort of ingenious concept or anything.
I think Prince of Persia and Sex in the City 2 will both open pretty big but I think that Prince will win the weekend. I say Prince at around $60 and Sex at around $50.
As per my predictions, Tom, I was one of the lowest on line when it came to Shrek 4. Box Office Guru and BO Derby along with EW had it over $100. Coming Soon had it at $93.4. I thought it might underperform, but with kid films you never know until it comes out. As per MacGruber, EW had it at 8, and they were one of the lowest. Otherwise, my numbers were close with the holdovers.
Ultimately there is a little bit of science to this, but there's still a lot of making shit up, and reading the cards. I thought Shrek 4 was weak, but I didn't think it was this weak, and I liked MacGruber, but didn't think it was this weak. Oh well.
PRINCE OF PERSIA is a terrible movie. I don't want to give anything away, but it made no sense and its ending was horrendously unfulfilling/anger-inducing. SEX AND THE CITY, I am sure, is a far worse movie, but I suspect it will do significantly better than PRINCE.
Hrithik Roshan, star of "Kites" should have been cast in Prince of Persia. Just sayin'.
Prince of Persia is going to tank big time. I can't see teens or young adults, particularly the guys, giving much of a shit, and we all know what the "women's audience" will be seeing.
#3: I think people have become jaded. Add in the international numbers and IRON MAN 2 will have a worldwide gross of well over $500m. Not bad for a movie generally regarded as so-so. (Personally I dug it, warts and all.)
To still act like NOES is a disappointment of some type is just stupid. It's done $59 million here, plus $17 million overseas, for a $76 million worldwide total, so far. To act like that's a rubbish total for a slasher film is just stupid.
You know what you can blame MacGruber's failure on? Nobody gives a damn about Saturday Night Live these days or wants to see a SNL movie based on a skit that is based on a TV show from two decades ago and for all the claims of how hysterical the movie is you won't find a single funny moment in the trailer or TV spots. The movie was doomed to fail regardless of what time of year they opened it.
I wouldn't be surprised at all of Sex & the City outperformed Prince of Persia; I think it would be really hysterical to be honest. PoP will make a decent enough box office, but Sex & the City has (I imagine at least) a larger fan base who will do the repeat viewings.
Why would anybody be surprised if Sex and the City wins next weekend? It's going to be massive, as the first one was, at the box office.
A year from now people will be quoting MacGruber.
Andre doesn't really "predict" the box office. He just gets it wrong. Repeatedly. Nick should just give this column to "The Dark Shape" dude on the forums. That guy's a freak. Week after week his BO predictions come true and make Andre look very silly.
At my theater, we usually get predictions for the following weekend sent to us first thing Monday morning. We might get an update if the previous weekend's estimates were off significantly from the actual numbers, but they're usually still pretty close. If they're wrong, they tend to go over, and they're usually the same ones that everyone else gets wrong too. While no one seemed to peg MacGruber as a being anywhere near a hit (which is a shame, because it was really good), I don't think ANYBODY thought it would bomb AS hard as it did. If Sex and the City 2 performs anything like the first one, it will demonstrate exactly how much a film can make when the audience consists of only college and middle-aged women and their gay male friends. While boyfriends and husbands get dragged to stuff like Twilight, Sex and the City seems to be where the line is drawn, as even the most whipped individuals muster up the courage to say "You aren't dragging me to this. You're going with your friends, and you can hold your OWN fucking purses". Also, the cast seems to be getting up there in years. Is this a Sex and the City sequel, or some sort of Golden Girls reboot?
I like how every generation basically says SNL is worthless and not as good as the past. I also like how it still gets really high ratings but according to internet tools no one watches it. Also MacGruber was hilarious.
Andre, I corrected you last Friday that MacGruber would be #2. My bad. Cheers! Rob
Here's what's going to happen next weekend. Women are going to call their naggy hen-ish girlfriends or facebook them or twitter them and then they're all going to meet up at Starbucks for Cafe Lattes and then pile one by one into a soccer mom vehicle like it's a clown car and then blast Beyonce and/or Celine Dion on the radio and then make the drive to the theater but before they reach the parking lot, they will make yet another stop off at starbucks, get more cafe lattes and then finally go see SATC 2. While all their boyfriends/husbands/self respecting men will be at home either watching the Stanley Cup or NBA or playing Red Dead Redemption
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