| Film | CHUD Pred | Weekend | Per | Total | |
| 1 | Thor | $68.5 (+2.5m) | $66,000,000 | $16,688 | $66,000,000 |
| 2 | Fast Five | $39 (+6.5m) | $32,500,00 (-62%) | $8,875 | $139,833,965 |
| 3 | Jumping The Broom | $12.1 (-1.6m) | $13,700,000 | $6,732 | $13,700,000 |
| 4 | Something Borrowed |
$12.5 (-.65m) | $13,155,000 | $4,530 | $13,155,000 |
| 5 | Rio | $9 (+.8m) | $8,200,000 (-45%) |
$2,517 | $114,902,068 |
| 6 | Water For Elephants |
– | $5,600,000 (-40%) |
$2,142 | $41,613,617 |
| 7 | Big Happy Family |
– | $3,900,000 (-60%) | $2,073 | $46,806,332 |
| 8 | Prom | – | $2,425,000 (-49%) | $888 | $7,800,445 |
| 9 | Soul Surfer | – | $2,100,000 (-38%) | $1,179 | $36,679,121 |
| 10 | Hoodwinked 2 |
– | $1,880,000 (-54%) | $750 | $6,713,614 |
Well first time out I ended up being off by an average of $2.5 million. I’ll take that, and since I’m the hnic for now, you’ll certainly have to.
So Thor didn’t blow it- that’s good news for Marvel. There was never a chance that it would do Iron Man numbers, so without that pressure a $60+ opening is a win. Though it’s not an impressive or record breaking number, it still puts it ahead of all Marvel property releases outside of the big three franchises (X, Spider, and Iron). Strong as the word of mouth is though, it’s probably not gonna take it past $200. A few superhero pics have been dragged past that number with lower starts for purposes of pride (Batman beginning, Superman returning… lookin’ in your direction WB), but it’s a crowded summer and Thor‘s screens will bleed much faster. We’ll have to see that second weekend. And for all the premature declarations that 3D is in decline –and that’s always been as much projection by stubborn grumps as actual fact– 60% of the Thor gross came from 3D, and it managed a bigger 3D opening than the long-promoted Tron. Might want to let a few more big summer releases go by before you start tossing out those glasses.
Along with Nick and I’s video wrap-up, you’ll be able to hear more of this kind of Thor discussion if you listen to the episode of The Imperial Trouble Podcast I’m a part of this week (drops Wednesday). But essential: I enjoyed Thor, and I’m pleased to see have an opening proportional to its relative quality. But onward to Captain America I say!
Fast Five‘s 62% drop-off might be a bummer if the film hadn’t just become the highest grossing of the year in the US, along with remaining number 1 internationally, and darting well $300m all-in. Hell of a quarter mile folks. $200 domestic should still be a thing, but like a lot of the films this summer I think, this big opener is going to get hammered (pun partially intended) just by the sheer volume of big releases crammed into this summer. It’s going to be hard for films like this to level out with such cutthroat competition for screens. Granted, part of the big drop can be attributed to the loss of IMAX screens to Thor, which was always in the cards. Since the film hasn’t been depending on premium ticket prices to make cash, it’s still a gangbusters showing for the franchise and it might stick around a while.
I’m happy to say the execrable Something Borrowed tripped over itself and even with nearly 1k extra screens, still lost out to Jumping the Broom, which seems to be pleasing audiences. I surmised that the film might find success if it hit that crossover African-America/religious market, and that appears to be exactly what happened. Also, I hear there’s been some kind of wedding-related business going on in the world that people apparently care about, and word is that a little clever cross-promotion with royal wedding-related programming might have bumped Broom up a bit too. Next week brings Bridesmaids, which has been a hit with the online writers community (I felt so stupid for missing it at SXSW, as twitter exploded with unexpected love almost immediately). Will the wedding energy carry over?
The rest of the list is the typical leveling out of the remains of the drudge months we’re just now emerging from. Outside of the top 10 are a couple of interesting stories of triumph: Insidious and Source Code both crest $50m, and despair:The Beaver doesn’t come out of the gate with much flare, and Passion Play makes a grand apiece at 2 theaters.
Insidious has been a win from weekend one, and six weeks later it has thoroughly stomped Scream 4 and made a nice little bundle of cash for an almost negligible upfront cost. Source Code is less of a win, but $50’s still a good milestone for it to have reached, and helps ensure Duncan Jones walks away unstained, if not on fire. He’ll stay on all the director shortlists for superhero and sci-fi films for sure.
The Beaver still has to show at Cannes and start its wide release on the 20th, but it hasn’t had a particularly energetic limited showing ($100k at 22 theaters). Opinion seems to split on the film. I though it was an interesting, well crafted mis-step, and Josh seems to have similar feelings, but it’s not a film that will inspire many to go to bat for it, even if they like it.
The Conspirator has actually floundered its way to just under $10m outside of the top 10, but it remains an embarrassment to be swept under the boring-rug. Terrible movie.
This weekend represents about $162m in total receipts, which is down from the Iron Man 2-boosted $180 of the same time last year. So do your best to get out there and get an ass in a seat next weekend…
——
That about does it for my first wrap-up. Don’t want to make a big deal out of the transition, but I can’t express how appreciative I am for all the kind words and encouraging comments on the first CHUD Does Box Office. It was very gratifying. Gonna be doing my best for sure, but feel free to keep me on my toes!
10 comments
Great work, Renn. A solid article and some surprisingly good predictions. You even listed the predictions next to the actual numbers, which is something I always wished Dre would get around to.
This has always been one of my favorite columns on the site and you’ve proven a worthy author for it. I hope you’ll stay on.
Renn Brown, This column has been…RENNdered, with style and grace. Your…RENNovations whilist minor, have a bit of flair, allowing you to rise above most in the CHUD.COM Pantheon! Well Done!
Oh yeah – that added ‘CHUD predicts’ column is very appeasing to my OCD. Well done.
nicely done. good analysis. can’t wait to see the future of this column continue
This is definitely the best compliment so far. Thank you Fleed.
Hey, wait a sec… does HNIC stand for what I THINK it stands for? And if it does, considering that acronym is new to me, how was that among my first five guesses? (I’m a bad person, that’s why)
Renn, I saw that “60% of the grosses came from 3D” stat on BO:MOJO on sunday and I did a little dance of joy. 3D? Dead? If 60% of a summer blockbusters grosses come from 3D, and virtually any film that is released in 3D sees a “3D Bumb”, and the highest grossing film of all time is 3D… at what point do even the grumpiest of anti revolutionaries admit defeat and embrace 3D as the Way of the Future? Only time will tell..
And congrats on your relatively accurate predictions! I’m pretty psyched to see that THOR did well. If John Favreau got brownie points for making a little known character like THE IRON MAN appeal to audiences on the big screen, surely Branagh is now entitled to the same good will after his THOR triumph? If LANTERN crashes and burns, I suspect it will make Branagh’s achievement of selling an outer space hero to the public even more glorious. I hope he sees some work out of this whole episode, at the very least
I think part of the reason you see 60% of the gross coming from 3D is because theaters are showing far fewer 2D screenings than 3D because they tickets are more expensive for the latter. I know in my theater there were 4 showtimes for Thor in 2D. There were about 12 showings in 3D (I went 2D). I also looked at some theaters in another city where I used to live and the same disparity seems to exist. Three 2D showings compared to 14 in 3D at one theater, for example.
This is admittedly a small sample size, and maybe this trend isn’t as pervasive as it seems at first glance. However, I think 3D necessarily had to be 60% of the grosses because of the screening breakdown. I saw on BOMojo that Thor opened in 3D at a record number of locations (nearly 2800). The movie opened at just under 4,000 theaters. So only ~1200 locations were not showing 3D at all. I suspect the remaining ~2800 theaters had similar breakdowns in 2D vs. 3D showings as I observed.
Are the numbers reported anywhere for how many of a film’s total screens are 3D vs. 2D? Is consumer interest or theater/studio practice driving 3D grosses? I think it’s probably the latter, and I’m sure the data are there to answer this question. We just need someone to report it.
I think you are right on, here. I couldn’t see this in 2D at all at the theaters I wanted to go to. It would be interesting to see the numbers charted out relative to the breakdown of available screens (and for that matter seats) since I think this stat reflects more of what the exhibitioners are pushing than what the customers are asking for.
3D vs 2D debate meaningless. Without proper sample space, it’s all so much hot farts.
Way, way back in the days of TRON LEGACY – for those with a memory longer than 140 characters – only one screen showed the flick in glorious 2D in Montreal (Canada’s third largest city) AT ALL. The theater I went to announced some non-3D shows but, surprise! when I got there my choice was Real3D and Imax3D. I accepted the bamboozle this one and last time.
Which is why, now that I caught the car flick, my movie summer is done. Fuck Hollywood.
Peeps may like or abhor the 3D, it may be a fad or the new standard. Only let’s not confuse SUPPLY with DEMAND.
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