As I write this, Transformers 3 has already made about forty-five million bucks. If you cram the early Tuesday screenings with the midnight shows and Wednesday itself, that gives Transformers a $43.2 opening day. Massive, though short of Revenge of the Fallen‘s $62m, and that was without a 3D bump (which was a bump, more on that below).
Right away this shows us what to expect from this… a HUGE blockbuster with all-time list ranking numbers that don’t quite meet the previous film’s totals and (stripped of the 3D bump and inflation) indicate a significantly shrunk attendance rate. That won’t matter at all though, as you can’t shake a stick at a six day total that will surely top $175 million without breaking a sweat- every dollar it does closer to the $200m five-day of Fallen is just cake. Also, now that international is such a big part of the conversation, consider that the film will in all likelihood have something close to $350m dollars in the worldwide bank in its first week. Even God didn’t manage to make more than a third-of-a-billion dollars across the globe in seven days. There’ll be no living with Bay after this.
Also, the film’s doing about 60% of its business in 3D- more in line with the numbers of last year. Apparently you can add a new dimension mid-stream with a franchise if you do it right, and maybe this indicates that Potter will do just fine as a late-game stereoscopic franchise film. Of course, Harry has the issue of not being made for 3D, or 3D attendance being harped on as strongly as it has been with TF3, plus his pre-sales have been heavily skewed 2D. So maybe not after all.
So yeah, Transformers 3 won’t quite outstep its processor (and again, stripped of the 3D premium would be a fair bit behind it), but is still so undeniably big that it will be irrelevant. The legs on this might even end up better than with the previous films, because the audience scores on it are actually great. People seem to be loving it, and it will be the highest-grossing film of the year, unless Cameron has a secret Avatar sequel to release at year’s end. Bay’s conclusive finale for the franchise under his direction will be a win, and he’ll move on before there’s ever even a hint of real diminishing returns. Make no mistake though- they’ll try and milk this franchise after Bay, and he’s going to have some serious vindication of his brand when they do and the drop is big. Mark my words [hello there readers linked from 2015!].
Larry Crowne does the counter-programming thing, which is always tough. People dig Hanks though, and he’s been pushing it hard, which should get it a decent opening that won’t quite break $20m, and won’t touch Cars 2 for second place.
Speaking of Pixar’s much-maligned sequel, the drop on this one will be super-interesting. How much air can the other car toy franchise suck out of Pixar’s sails, what with its photorealistic vehicular violence and masturbatory cinematography (wait, which one am I talking about?). I’m thinking the drop’s less than 50% on the kiddy flick.
Fuck you Bad Teacher. I hope your numbers [apple with a rotten, shriveling core metaphor].
There’s a movie called Monte Carlo coming out for girls or something. It won’t crack the top five I wager.
So as I compose this piece, I’ve been awake approximately 72 hours, have been in five states in as many days, was bumped off of 10 airline flights, spent 4 1/2 disastrous hours on the A-train in NY between midnight and 5am Thursday morning, and am probably driving from TN to GA as you read this. I’m a bit feverish and I’m done with these numbers until Sunday. I’ll have seen Transformers by then (assuming there are any IMAX tickets left to be had), and will have some thoughts. Join me then.
Numbers!
Transformers ….. $185,000,000 (Sunday night total)***
Cars 2 ….. $35,000,000
Larry Crowne $18,500,000
Bad Teacher ….. $17,000,000
Green Lantern ….. $9,000,000***Going to leave it be for posterity, but I realize in my exhaustion I punched in my Monday night number here, so don’t think me too crazy.
Come back Sunday to wonder what the fuck I was thinking with me.
23 comments
I wonder how much the 3D bump is skewed by the print distribution. I know this is anecdotal evidence, but the theatre I work at got 1 35mm print, 3 3D prints, and 1 2D digital print, and the latter is on a split with a 3D one. That’s a total of 6 2D showings a day, and 12 3D.
Like, where’s your review guys?
I hope after TF3 Bay goes back to smaller more personal films…like Bad Boys 2.
I want Pearl Harbor 2.
The fact the Transformers films make so much money is mind boggling, but it goes to show that Bay does know his explosions. I only saw the first Transformers film (I heard the 2nd one was incoherent so I stayed away). But, I will admit that Bay has talent – The Rock remains an extremely entertaining film, and Armageddon is a guilty pleasure – in many ways it’s one of the best comedies of the 90’s.
Bay needs to do another R rated film after this. He needs to show the world some full frontal 3D.
Come on Hovis. The real comedies are the Twilight movies.
Where’s the review? This is so typical of CHUD. Nobody wants to admit if they actually liked it. If it was utter crap the review would be posted.
Uh, I don’t think they’re not posting a review because they liked it, I think it’s because the movie wasn’t screened for critics…
Screened or not, it came out Wednesday. That said: 1-I don’t think it’s a CHUD conspiracy 2-I have no intention to see it until Netflix has it
We haven’t seen it. Nick and I were out of town for the press screenings, and our LA people didn’t manage a preview. We review the films we see, and we review them regardless of our overall opinion. Not sure what pattern you’re observing.
So is that how it works? You only review the movies you don’t have to pay for? No review for “Priest” or “TF3.” This is especially noticeable since they were both sci-fi films (a genre CHUD pays often champions). I enjoy the CHUD reviews (pro or con) and miss them when they aren’t given. But if the reviewers feel they shouldn’t have to shell out the coin for the movie like the rest of us then there is a severe elitist chasm developing between the site and the readers.
er…make that “pays close attention to” or “often champions” – not an amalgam of the two.
Show me another major movie site where the reviewers pay to see the movies they review?
I liked Bad Teacher. 🙁
Is there another Major movie site that doesn’t have a TF3 review? A summer release such as this – regardless of quality – can’t simply be ignored. It’s omission does raise questions on the sites focus.
RottenTomatoes.
See the issue isn’t that they get to see movies for free but do they ONLY see movies if they are free? If that is the case then I wouldn’t consider them movie fans and hence have no business reviewing movies. A movie fan would want to see a movie as soon as it came out and not skip it just cause they missed a free screening. Which of us does that? And isn’t that how these people got a “job” reviewing movies?
We’ve been out of town or traveling for the last week guys. Chill. There will be some TF3 content a comin’.
Of course we see movies that we have to pay for. Jesus.
A bunch of grown ass adults getting their collective pussies bruised ’cause Nick and Renn haven’t given their public opinions on a nightmare movie based off a dumb cartoon. Sometimes my sparkling heart aches for the CHUD crew, having to deal with the cunty needs of impatient children. Renn’s right…everyone needs to chill, and maybe go outside for a few minutes.
The “cunty needs of impatient children” here defined as “wanting a review for the biggest release of the week.” Next time you guys go “out of town”, leave someone behind to review movies for your movie site.
I don’t think you’ve made the Sunday update once since Dre left.
Why don’t you just go see it for yourself?
LOL 🙂
Hey Werewolf Pussy: If your heart sparkles then you may be a Twilight vampire. Go to a doctor ASAP.
As for the rest of the complainers, CHUD isn’t run by a huge crew and sometimes they don’t get everything done perfectly due to schedules, traveling, etc. Kind of like the rest of you, me and everyone else on the planet. If you really are so terribly sad that you didn’t get a fucking Transformers 3 review… then your life must be pretty empty. They didn’t omit a landmark moment in the history of American film making. This wasn’t Michael Bay’s fevered yet touching exploration of humanity’s precarious relationship with technology and how the motivations of alien robot truck/helicopter/plane/blenders may very well hold the key to a greater understanding of how and why the collective subconscious may determine the fate of your next pilgrimage to Mecca for fried chicken. As Werewolf Pussy suggests, this probably won’t actually make or break your holiday weekend. Easy on the hate rape, it’s not that big a transgression.
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