| Film? | Weekend? | Per Screen | Boobs! | |
| 1 | Avatar | $73,000,000 | $21,147 | $73,000,000 |
| 2 | The Princess and the Frog | $12,224,000 (-49.5%) | $3,518 | $44,756,000 |
| 3 | The Blind Side | $10,030,000 (-33.4%) | $2,944 | $164,734,000 |
| 4 | Did You Hear About the Morgans? | $7,000,000 | $2,575 | $7,000,000 |
| 5 | New Moon | $4,370,000 (-45.1%) | $1,440 | $274,561,000 |
| 6 | Invictus | $4,170,000 (-51.6%) | $1,962 | $15,845,000 |
| 7 | A Christmas Carol | $3,419,000 (-50.0%) | $1,652 | $130,789,000 |
| 8 | Up in the Air | $3,100,000 (+29.5%) | $17,714 | $8,106,000 |
| 9 | Brothers | $2,630,000 (-47.6%) | $1,309 | $22,091,000 |
| 10 | Old Dogs | $2,289,000 (-48.1%) | $870 | $43,574,000 |
This just in: A Copy of Word Up! magazine. It features Salt N’ Peppa and Heavy D in a limo.
Avatar did not break any records, domestically. That does not poo-poo anything, it had a solid opening, and did an additional $159 Million internationally. Reports have come in suggesting that it played well to it not playing well, but anecdotal evidence is less than worthless. The question is if it can weather next weekend without taking it in the shorts, and then also if it holds up for New Years. There are a handful of negative reviews, but word is mostly positive critically, and dissenters are being told they have no soul, while some people feel they are being persecuted for loving the film. The hyperbole police are strong on this one. Geeks are always polarized, the question is if the mainstream embraces it. It’s hard to say if they have or not yet, though the film got a great number of lookie-loos. The international numbers point-blank suggests that the film will have no problem getting over $600 million worldwide. Does it become a part of the conversation, or does Sherlock Holmes steal the thunder, and and will there be something of a Holmes vs. Avatar between the public and critics, leading to more negative WOM for Holmes because people feel protective of James Cameron? All this and more will become apparent with the passage of time.
The takeaway: Great numbers, but… the film is really expensive, and the question with this film has always been how long and well will it play. Ultimately had Fox done a better job of selling it domestically, that number could have been higher. But you also have the East Coast storms to contend with. The time of marketing is over, and word of mouth is now king. As they say, dot dot dot. The question is if it can do a stronger hold than most genre pictures of its kind. Getting to $200 domestically – at this point – is a done deal, but I don’t know if it gets to $300 or $400. For those looking to champion the film, the international numbers suggest the film could still get to a billion (which – as the word is that the film cost $500 Million – would be the “no shit” number), and if it does then there will be no argument about the film’s success. Anything less, and people can carp that Cameron failed, which makes it interesting that Fox would release a film like Alvin and the Chipmunks five days after. It may seem stupid to cut off your nose to spite your face, but the industry is an interesting place.
My gut reaction is that the film is not transcendent of its interests, and does not get to $400 domestically. I have not seen the film, but I feel that the comparisons to King Kong are mostly deserved. Having seen every James Cameron film, the script is likely weak, and that’s going to kill some of the repeat business if Jake Sully is no Luke Skywalker. Someone said the cinemascore is A-, which is solid, but I don’t know and don’t think this is resonating to be a zeitgeist, which is what it needs, and I also feel like the flippers are reacting to the tech on a level that may not interest the gen-pop. Do regular ticket-goers talk about the uncanny valley? Only some of them (mostly programmers). There’s this image of men and women dragging each other to movies, and men going to see chick flicks for sexual favors. This is slightly exaggerated, but the date night factor of the film seems to be marginal. And if you can’t convince your girlfriend or wife to see this film without also seeing – say – It’s Complicated then there’s that. I don’t think the women who flocked to Titanic have any interest in this film whatsoever.
Holy shit, Brittnay Murphy died today.
Disney’s holding the bag with Princess and the Frog, but they didn’t hit the cultural sweet spot. They’re going to miss hitting a hundred at this point. Alvin‘s going to steal everything from them.
The Hugh Grant movie did no business, so it getting killed by It’s Complicated isn’t even so much a killing as a walking by. the rest of the numbers are what they are. I don’t feel like Warner’s is invested in pushing The Blind Side for academy consideration, so it’s up to Sandra Bullock’s people to work that shit. Speaking of box office and awards, Precious is losing all bits of steam, and the nominations will be the win. Up in the Air is expanding well, so that may get some heat. I think we’re looking at it as the front runner, but I feel like Inglourious Basterds could sneak in there, and f s up. I keep hearing people talking about Avatar, and that could be a rallying point, but old people, genre, and the dip in interest by the time of final balloting could work against. Currently there is no front runner, but I wouldn’t bet against Jeff Bridges, or Christoph Waltz. Everything else is what it is.
20 comments
What a sad state of affairs when an Alvin and The Chipmunks sequel is going to have a bigger haul than Princess and The Frog, Fantastic Mr. Fox and Coraline all put together. Screw you, mainstream audiences and your terrible, terrible tastes.
I work at a theater in the suburbs of Pittsburgh with no 3-D and we may as well NOT have Avatar, as it hasn't been doing any business for us really, at least not the kind of business that a $70 million opener brings. Weather's been bad, but that means very little around these parts. We'll have people that roll up during blizzards that don't even know IF we're open (we've only closed early twice EVER, February 13th both times), just to see something like "Old Dogs" in its fifth week. Speaking of "Alvin", the first one played for over three months, so we're expecting get killed this next week. Big fan of the column, as I like all the industry talk and not being talked to like an idiot.
There was a huge snowstorm of much of the mid atlantic/ north east. It certainly kept alot of people at home rather than the theater
I think you will have a different view on what Avatar will do and how wide it will reach after you see the film. It really is a one of a kind movie going experience and it is something that has to be seen in a big, big theater. I predict this film will have legs well into the new year. Look at the rating on Yahoo, people love this film.
Avatar is being hurt by the lack of IMAX screens, especially in the larger markets. Here in Portland it's been sold out this weekend in the only IMAX screen we have showing it. If Alice kicks it out of that one theater prematurely, it will likely not roll over to the standard 3D showings. I know it wouldn't for me.
I know anecdotal evidence doesn't mean anything… but here's my anecdote anyway. (I'm in Australia, btw) I saw Avatar (for the 2nd time) with a large group, including girlfriends and mums on Saturday. Every single one of them absolutely flipped for it. My mate's mum hasn't sat through a film for 5 years (and her husband died two weeks ago), and she came out buzzing. My wife – who pretty much hates sci-fi – thought it was the greatest thing since she quit blow job duty. I believe this thing is going to become a pop culture reference and definitely enter the zeitgeist. I also don't believe there will be much of a 2nd week drop. Or 3rd week for that matter. I predict big legs for this sucker.
Interesting… very interesting. My gut tells me Avatar will pull through. I'm reading the boards, reading all over the place and it's as I predicted, people don't know what to do with the damn movie. That's good. That's what Cameron wants. That asshole. He went and shoved a piece of art into a big blockbuster movie.
Every person i know that has seen this and loved it and in the IMAX theater I saw it in here in NYC the crowd errupted in loud applause at the end. Even my female friends were raving so don't judge too soon, this movie is not king kong. My mom wants to see it and she hasn't been to the movies in 5 Years. This weekend not only had bad weather but was also a travel weekend for millions. next weekend will be the best indicator and also don't forget that most people are seeing this in IMAX 3d which will limit some of the box office
Everyone I know has seen avatar and loved it. #8, they erupted in applause at my show today too. In fact, the imax 3d was so packed, they had employees walking around handing out coupons if people would shift a seat or two to make room. Only way me and the wife scored a spot. When we left, there was a line around the corner to get into the theatre room. I think the desire to see it in 3d is the reason the numbers are small. I say this plays, as everyone who has seen it says "Just make sure you see it in 3d!" And thats only 2000 screens… 2000 PACKED screens.
You haven't even seen it yet? Why are you even writing this this?
It might even get regular yearly limited rereleases in IMAX ala nightmare before Xmas. Wouldn't be suprised.
Everyone's talking about their guts as if they're a fortune-telling device instead of a food receptacle.
It was an entertaining spectacle but was not the mind-blowing game changer we have been hearing it would be.
I have seen Princess and the Frog twice with my family. It is such a great movie and the music is great. Alvin and the Chipmunks has it's place in the world, but really if you have kids or enjoy animated movies you really should support Princess and the Frog.
AVATAR is like an amusement park ride: big, spectacular, and a helluva lotta fun, but I don't imagine the experience is as remotely entertaining in 2D. Time will tell I guess. — I'd like to read a review by someone who has seen the film in both IMAX and non-IMAX theatres.
Adam, box office has never had anything to do with quality, which is why I feel comfortable predicting as I do.
Princess and The Frog looks like it appeals to little girls and zero anybody else. Alvin's going to be huge. The ADULT asian students at work are excited like a fat bitch for Twilight.
Holmes got mostly dud reviews down here in Aus land, and the trailers have stunk to high heaven. I still think it's gonna be big though, and shut down Avatar. Although I'll be going back to see Avatar again, even if I only mildly enjoyed it, because the film has zero appeal on anything but 3D imax.
"It might even get regular yearly limited rereleases in IMAX ala nightmare before Xmas. Wouldn't be suprised."-Comment #11
I don't think this would happen at all. "Nightmare Before Christmas" can get away with it for a week or 2 because it does it during sort of the off-season when there isn't a lot of competition for the IMAX screens. During the summer, when IMAX-minded blockbusters are coming out left and right, there's such a high rotation of stuff moving in and out. Now that "Avatar" has shown that something like that can make a killing in IMAX during the holidays, studios might start making THIS time of year a booking headache as well, and once there's more competition for the slots, there won't be any room for any sort of substantial re-release. Going back to "Nightmare Before Christmas", you also have to realize that it was NOT a big hit when it came out and that much of the fanbase that's built up for it since then, the Hot Topic generation, wasn't even old enough to see it during it's initial release. That, and the fact that the 3-D wasn't a part of it the first time means that not only is there always going to be some someone that hasn't seen it, but older viewers that originally saw it in theaters MIGHT want to see it again for the 3-D. This works for "Nightmare Before Christmas", but with as much money that's been spent on "Avatar" already, it's not going to be worth it to try to re-sell it to the same audience year after year, particularly in an increasingly more crowded IMAX marketplace. No theater company is going to book a re-release any any long period of time when there's bound to be more money in new releases.
Princess and the Frog is being massively hurt by the fact it has "Princess" in the title which causes macho men to avoid it like the plague. Saying it only appeals to "little girls" is like saying Beauty and the Beast only appeals to "little girls". My advice is that it's worth seeing just for the music, but most fans of traditional animation don't think Disney is worth saving anyhow. And someone from Aus or Europe WILL NOT appreciate the film unless they are a fan of American roots music / culture etc. Still, it would be terribly sad to see it not reach $100, go out and support it. It's a date flick, not a little girl flick!!
Re #18 – Fair enough. I wasn't aware that IMAX had such a huge number of titles. I'm outside the US, and IMAX always seems to struggle to fill seats or closing down in Japan – I thought thru lack of titles.
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