This just in: Santa Reagan was unable to defeat Santa Claus, as Santa Reagan’s “trickle-down” theory of Christmas gave everyone the heebie-jeebies.

Last year, Christmas fell on a Friday, so in that sense the weekend was likely more bountiful because Christmas Eve is considered a weak day of business. Nonetheless, Avatar held the top spot, dropping less than 2%, while the top five grossed 224 Million, and the top two grossed $137 (Avatar at $75.6, Sherlock Holmes at $62.3). This year the top ten grossed $134 Million. This is partly the economy, but mostly the movies. The Green Hornet may benefit from this end of year drop off, as people may be excited to see a movie again when it opens in three weeks, but it could get stomped by The Dilemma, or a year end non-interest in 3-D.

Little Fockers did not open strong, and though it’s around the numbers I estimated, it’s going to have to hold next weekend to get to $100 by the end of next frame. I don’t know if it has enough oomph (even with absence of competition) to do so. The first film did $166, the second $280 Million. This should get over $120 Million, but after that it’s hard to say. If it’s off more than 20% next weekend, it’s off with no competition. Since a lot of people are on holiday, the dailies should be high, but the film could collapse.

The big winner this weekend was True Grit. I don’t why this seemed like a hard sell, or something audiences might react poorly to, but that was a real fear. It’s likely that Grit could hold strong with its word of mouth and appeal, and it’s possible that it could close out the year at the top of the chart. Since the film was reasonably budgeted, it’s in good shape to be the most successful Coen brothers film ever, and one of their most profitable.

Tron collapsed. Part of this could be the holiday weekend, and potential loss of Friday evenings and Saturday morning business, but it’s going to have to rebound/not fall next weekend if it’s going to have any shot at $150 domestic. Since Disney has suggested that’s the production budget, that would be the number that would be a saving throw. But as it was off over 50% from the opening weekend (compared to Avatar‘s 1.8%), this doesn’t get pretty, unless international is strong (which so far it hasn’t been). I don’t think there’s any way to look at these numbers positively, if there was I’d share it.

Narnia is still playing, so it could get close to $80-$90, which is better than it seemed last week. Yogi Bear might be close to $50 Million by the end of next weekend, so maybe $60-ish by end of run. Tangled is still out, and it’s got $150 domestic sowed up. After that, maybe a little more. And The Tourist is still in the top ten. How Do You Know is out, so Sony’s embarrassing end of year means that either The Green Hornet turns it around, or people be getting fired soon.

Gulliver’s Travels looked like shit, and it turns out people didn’t care.

The Fighter held okay, but it hasn’t seemed to click in the gen-pop. Black Swan keeps adding screens, and is now Darren Aronofsky’s most successful film, but also it appears to have doubled its budget. With a number of nominations, and a likely top ten Oscar Best Picture slot and Actress slot in their sights, it’s time for the full court press, and go after director and supporting actor nominations (supporting actress seems likely). If they can up their number of nominations to seven, eight or ten (hey, costumes, make-up, that’s some good support) then you not only put Natalie Portman’s nomination in better light, you could go full Slumdog. I don’t know if the academy has fallen for The Social Network, and The King’s Speech is very classical. I think there’s still wiggle room in this race.